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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The chief of Russia’s Radiation, Biological and Chemical Protection Forces was killed this week when a bomb hidden in a scooter exploded outside his Moscow apartment building. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the brazen assassination attributed to Ukraine’s security service and how it comes amid a spate of attacks on high-ranking Russian military officials.
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Week of Dec. 20-27
A Look Ahead
Dec. 19 – Great Lakes winter storm and holiday travel
With a record number of people expected to travel in the United States this holiday season, forecasters are watching for the potential of wintry weather starting Thursday, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast.
What’s happened so far
An Alberta Clipper storm system with the potential to produce widespread snow is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, with impacts expected in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Additionally, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center warned that a fresh blast of arctic air could chill parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic beginning Friday. On the West Coast, there is the potential for significant rainfall along the coast of Northern California as a series of atmospheric rivers pushes eastward.
The impact
Wet and wintry weather could create slippery road conditions in a period already associated with an increased risk for serious car crashes. Inclement weather, the No. 1 cause of air traffic delays across the United States, could also lead to flight delays or cancellations. Projections from AAA show a record 119.3 million people are likely to cross a significant distance domestically in the period beginning Saturday through Jan. 1. Of those, more than 90 percent — or 107 million people — are expected to travel by car, while 7.85 million others are expected to reach their holiday destinations by air.
Dec. 20 – European gas buyers rush to find U.S. sanctions workaround
European countries reliant upon Russian gas imports are scrambling to find a solution by Friday following new U.S. sanctions.
What’s happened so far
A surprise round of new U.S. sanctions targeting the massive Russian gas industry have left some European buyers scrambling to find a solution before the sanctions take effect this week. The sanctions target Gazprombank, the last remaining major Russian financial institution untouched by sanctions imposed in the wake of the full invasion of Ukraine and the main intermediary by which European countries pay for Russian gas imports.
The impact
Despite diversification in the wake of the invasion, Europe remains a significant export arena for Russian gas and supplies, and countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Austria are threatened by the sanctions. The surprise sanctions further muddle the imminent future for Russian gas exports to Europe, which are already in question due to the impending expiration of Ukraine’s agreement to transit Russian gas through its territory to Europe. A possible avenue to continue Russian gas exports to Europe is a sanctions waiver allowing exports to continue through Turkey’s TurkStream pipeline network, which has become a significant conduit for European imports of Russian gas following the cessation of Nord Stream operations and declining transit through Ukraine.
There is a rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Dec. 24 – Damascus Airport possible reopening
Syria’s Damascus International Airport may resume scheduled flights Tuesday, when an operations-suspension notice issued by the country’s civil aviation agency is set to expire.
What’s happened so far
Scheduled passenger flights have been halted at all Syrian airports since Dec. 8, when Islamist militants swept into the capital and ended President Bashar al-Assad’s 24 years in power. While the rebels seized power without much resistance from regime forces, much of the nation’s facilities were shut down because they were run by Assad’s deposed government. Travelers’ videos from that night showed airport staff, security and passport personnel abandoning their posts as the only system of governance the country has known for decades fell.
The impact
Reopening of the country’s main airport would allow some exiled Syrians, who represent one of the world’s largest refugee populations, to return home and foreigners trapped by the conflict to leave. It would also symbolize a relative return to normalcy and public order desperately sought by Syria’s new leaders who claim they will introduce democratic rule and work to shed the country’s pariah status under al-Assad.
Dec. 25 – Deadline for electors to vote in U.S. election
U.S states have until Wednesday to submit certifications in the 2024 U.S. presidential election to officials ahead of a formal electoral vote count.
What’s happened so far
Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in November. With a sweep of all seven battleground states, the Republican candidate and former president cleared the hurdle of 270 electoral votes to finish 312-226 and also won the national popular vote. Despite fears the aftermath of the election could descend into violence, the process will continue on to its next step of certification with no serious accusations of electoral fraud from either party.
The impact
After officials take receipt of the certificates, they will be transferred to the custody of Congressional authorities no later than Jan. 3. Following that, amid high security, Harris will preside over a joint session of Congress to formally count the votes on Jan. 6, some four years after an insurrection at the Capitol attempted to stop the process. After certification, the next important date is Inauguration Day, when Trump will take the oath of office from the Capitol’s West Front and begin his term as the 47th president.
Dec. 25 – Japan’s foreign minister meets China’s foreign minister
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwata will meet with his Chinese counterpart on Wednesday with the aim to stabilize relations.
What’s happened so far
According to Japanese government sources, the strategic meeting between Japan’s top diplomat and his counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, will take place in China, with a focus on bilateral trade and regional security. The event is set to take place after both countries agreed to work on their relations during a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Lima, Peru, in November.
The impact
Among the topics expected to be discussed are China’s apparent intentions to lift a ban on Japanese seafood and beef imports, as well as the expansion of imports of Japanese rice. Regional security talks will focus on China’s naval and air activities in the South China Sea and near Japanese-controlled territories along with North Korea’s missile and nuclear development and military cooperation with Russia. Bilateral tourism promotion and cultural exchanges will also be discussed.
Dec. 27 – South Korea court begins Yoon impeachment hearing
South Korea’s constitutional court will hold its first public pretrial hearing on Friday on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol.
What’s happened so far
After Yoon’s shock late-night declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, opposition lawmakers moved quickly to file impeachment motions against him. The first vote, however, failed, after all but three ruling party MPs boycotted the vote. But after daily nationwide mass protests and widespread media condemnation, all 300 lawmakers attended the second floor vote and he was impeached on Dec. 14. Yoon is currently suspended pending a constitutional court ruling on his future political career, and he is barred from leaving the country, while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo serves as acting president.
The impact
The constitutional court, currently composed of six judges, has six months to decide whether to strip Yoon of his presidency or to reinstate him in office but is under immense public pressure to deliver a quick ruling on Yoon. There are daily protests outside the court, both in and against his favor. Yoon is not expected to attend the pretrial hearing as he is not required to do so. Separately, police, prosecutors, the National Assembly and the anti-corruption office are conducting investigations into potential insurrection charges against Yoon for the short-lived martial law. Presidential immunity does not spread to these charges, which means that if charged, he could be facing life imprisonment or the death penalty.
What Else Matters
Cyclone Chido
Cyclone Chido developed from a tropical depression into a severe cyclone over the Indian Ocean before hitting Mayotte, an archipelago off the east coast of Africa and France’s poorest overseas department, on Saturday. Most of its more than 300,000 residents live in shacks with metal roofs, and satellite imagery showed wide-scale destruction of entire neighborhoods, including in the capital Mamoudzou. Chido then made landfall south of Pemba, Mozambique, on Sunday, likewise bringing extremely strong winds and severe conditions to the South African nation.
Watch for: As rescue efforts and damage assessment teams continue to arrive in both Mayotte and Mozambique, authorities fear that the death toll from Chido could be in the hundreds, with French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau saying it could take “days and days” to get a complete picture of the cyclone’s effects. Although authorities have so far accounted for fewer than 20 people dead in Mayotte, French officials say the uncertainty around the number may be due to the estimated 100,000 undocumented migrants originating from neighboring Comoros and other East African countries. Likewise in Mozambique, although authorities have said at least 34 people were killed, the country continues to experience widespread power and network outages significantly complicating rescue efforts.
Top Russian general killed in Moscow blast
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s chemical warfare programs, was killed along with his assistant after an IED attached to a scooter detonated outside an apartment block in Moscow on Tuesday morning. The killing is the latest in a series of attacks on high-ranking Russian military officials and, while there has been no public claim of responsibility from Ukrainian officials, multiple media outlets have reported Ukraine’s Security Service was behind the attack. On Monday, the Ukrainian agency charged Kirillov in absentia with ordering the “mass use of chemical weapons” on the battlefield in Ukraine, saying it had recorded more than 4,800 instances of Russian use of chemical munitions since the 2022 invasion. Russia’s Investigative Committee has opened an investigation into his killing on charges of terrorism, murder and illegal arms trafficking.
Watch for: The attack is a humiliating reminder to the Kremlin that Ukraine retains the resources to strike at high-ranking Russian officials in Moscow. Senior Russian political figures have already made public calls for retribution against Ukraine and there is a high-risk of retaliation. This will likely come in the form of nationwide strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, potentially involving Russia’s newly-developed Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump this week highlighted the necessity of both Russia and Ukraine agreeing to a deal to end the conflict, but neither party has shown signs they would be willing to return to talks. Russia has recently accelerated the advance of its forces in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, claiming the capture of logistics hub Kurakhove, while in the Kursk region North Korean troops have been deployed in an effort to expel Ukraine’s incursion into the territory.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Dec. 20-27
Dec. 20
- European gas buyers rush to find workaround to U.S. sanctions
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
- Damascus Airport possible reopening
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
- Hanukkah begins
- Deadline for electors to vote in U.S. election
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
Dec. 27
- South Korea court begins Yoon impeachment hearing
Dec. 28-Jan. 3
Dec. 29
- Chad parliamentary elections
Dec. 31
- New Year’s Eve
- Gazprom Ukraine gas transit agreement expires
Jan. 1
- New Year’s Day
Jan. 2
- Bail hearing of Monk Chinmoy Das in Bangladesh
Jan. 4-10
Jan. 5
- Congestion pricing begins in New York City
Jan. 6
- Congressional certification of 2024 U.S. presidential election
Jan. 10
- Pakistan’s PIA to resume flights to Europe
- Ex-presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office
- U.S. Supreme Court to hear arguments on law banning TikTok
Jan. 11-17
Jan. 12
- Comoros to hold parliamentary elections
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Top photo: The Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the United States are bracing for another round of winter storms shortly after weathering lake-effect snow earlier this month, seen here in Watertown, N.Y. (Photo: New York State Department of Transportation)
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