Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The Debrief: Separatist attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan province have intensified in 2024, with a sharp uprise beginning in August. Recent bombings and military-style assaults have left hundreds dead. In this month’s Debrief, Factal Editor Awais Ahmad and Senior Editor Halima Mansoor explore the roots of this insurgency, fueled in part by economic neglect and human rights abuses, its geopolitical impact in the region, and the challenges faced by the Pakistani government as it responds with a major military operation. Read more in this month’s Debrief.
Week of Dec. 13-20
A Look Ahead
Dec. 14 – Georgian presidential election
An electoral college will elect Georgia’s new president on Saturday as the term of pro-western, opposition figurehead Salome Zourabichvili comes to an end.
What’s happened so far
Anti-government protests continue throughout the country over a week after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze put EU integration on hold until 2028, sparking public ire. Clashes have been a regular occurrence at the demonstrations and, last week, police conducted mass raids of opposition political parties and organizations, forcibly detaining leaders. Current President Salome Zourabichvili has been in a standoff with the ruling Georgian Dream party since the parliamentary election in October, which she described as rigged, calling the government unconstitutional. She said she will not leave office when her term expires, arguing the electoral college has no right to elect her replacement as it is dominated by Georgian Dream lawmakers that sit in an “illegitimate” parliament.
The impact
Demonstrations have lost momentum in recent days in Georgia, but it is highly likely that the presidential election will trigger a resurgence in protest action across the country as the opposition accuses Georgian Dream of another rigged vote. Despite Zourabichvili’s resolve to remain in office, the prime minister said the incumbent president must leave office when her term expires, indicating the potential for escalation and the possible forced removal of Zourabichvili. The ruling party nominated far-right former soccer player Mikheil Kavelashvili for president and a win for their candidate would bring the only major post not controlled by Georgian Dream under the party’s influence.
Dec. 15 – Pope Francis to visit Corsica
On Sunday, Pope Francis will conduct a one-day visit to Ajaccio in Corsica, France, the first such visit to the island by any pontificate in history.
What’s happened so far
The visit is set to occur during a conference on Catholicism’s popularity in the island’s capital. It is Francis’s third visit to France during his mandate as the Vatican’s head of state. He is also set to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron at the airport in Paris before heading to Rome, while rejecting an official invitation to oversee the re-opening of Notre Dame on Dec. 7.
The impact
The visit from Pope Francis to Corsica is very much in line with Francis’s “pope of the peripheries” strategy of focusing on less central cities and locations. He has consistently rejected going to capitals of countries and has not visited Paris during his tenure. While Corsica is home to a large pro-independence movement, it is unlikely any such activity will be present Sunday.
There is a rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Dec. 16 – German government to hold vote of confidence
German lawmakers will take part in a vote of no confidence Monday that will likely trigger early federal elections.
What’s happened so far
The no-confidence vote, Germany’s first since 2005 in a political system characterized by stability, was triggered after the dramatic collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government alongside the Greens and Free Democrats in early November. Scholz is all but assured to lose the no-confidence vote, which will then trigger early German federal elections that will reportedly take place on Feb. 23, 2025.
The impact
Polling for the forthcoming election shows a considerable decline in support for Scholz’s Social Democrats with a marked bump projected for the center-right CDU/CSU, which ruled Germany for 16 years under Chancellor Angela Merkel before Scholz’s election in 2021. A surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany also appears likely in the wake of the party’s historic victory earlier this fall in Thuringia state elections. Further anti-establishment sentiment amid the prolonged contraction of Europe’s largest economy could also result in support for Germany’s upstart anti-immigrant populist left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance movement.
Dec. 16 – U.S. issues order mandating bird flu testing of milk supply
U.S. authorities will begin testing the national raw milk supply for bird flu Monday, following a federal order late last week.
What’s happened so far
The order from the U.S. Department of Agriculture comes amid a rapid spread of the H5N1 virus among dairy cattle, with more than 700 milk-producing herds nationwide infected since March – 500 of them in the state of California alone. The enforcement of compulsory measures comes after many dairy farms failed to comply with voluntary testing during the first stages of the outbreak, in an attempt by the administration to contain the spread. At least two cases of human H5 avian influenza were reported in Arizona in December in two workers exposed to infected poultry.
The impact
Bulk milk transporters and dairy processors will be expected to collect and share samples upon USDA request from Monday in order to facilitate the identification of infected herds and prevent transmission among livestock. The initial testing phase will take place in California, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Oregon, Mississippi and Michigan. It is unclear whether the incoming Trump administration will maintain the program.
Dec. 17 – Taipei to host Shanghai delegation in rare high-level visit
Taiwan’s capital will host the 15th-annual Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum on Tuesday, amid a period of high tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
What’s happened so far
The event, hosted alternately between Taipei and Shanghai every year since 2010, is a rare venue for civil cross-strait communication, especially since Beijing cut off high-level diplomatic contact with Taiwan in 2016. Relations between Taipei and Beijing are particularly tense after a recent visit by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to the Pacific, including stopovers in Hawaii and Guam, to which China responded by launching a new round of large-scale military exercises around Taiwan.
The impact
Around 100 delegates from Shanghai will attend the forum, including one of the city’s vice mayors. Representatives from Taipei and Shanghai are expected to sign memorandums of understanding focusing on less politically fraught areas of cooperation, including “smart medical care” and zoo animal exchanges. The Taipei mayor’s decision to move forward with the event has drawn criticism from some local politicians given recently increased military activity from mainland China.
Dec. 20 – Current U.S. spending package expires
With just weeks to go before a new U.S. Congress takes office, lawmakers face a Friday deadline to pass a new stopgap government funding measure, with a full funding deal seemingly off the table.
What’s happened so far
Lawmakers last passed a spending bill in late September with overwhelmingly bipartisan votes, though 86 House Republicans voted against the measure as hardliners sought deeper cuts. Despite Republicans taking control of all three branches of the government come January, Democrats aren’t expected to fight for significant concessions to get a deal done, with a focus on securing disaster aid in a supplemental package. Some GOP members have balked at the $100 billion figure floated by the White House and will likely push that total down in negotiations, and have also “singled out” funding requests for the EPA, the State Department and Department of Education.
The impact
The passage of a continuing resolution would set up an early test for the Trump administration and the slim Republican majority in the House to avoid a government shutdown in the opening months of 2025. The stopgap also takes attention away from other priorities like a party-line bill to extend the 2017 Trump tax law.
What Else Matters
UnitedHealth shooting suspect taken into custody
Luigi Mangione, the 26-year-old Ivy League graduate and former valedictorian, is accused of fatally shooting Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, in New York City last week before getting arrested in Pennsylvania on Monday. Mangione is pleading not guilty to firearm possession and forgery charges after he was caught with a 3D printed gun and silencer as well as a fake driver’s license. He’s been charged with second-degree murder in New York but is currently fighting extradition. That could potentially keep him in Pennsylvania for several weeks. He’s entitled to a hearing where the Manhattan district attorney will need to present evidence and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will need to formally request the extradition from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, which her office says she will do.
Watch for:
Mangione’s alleged violent act garnered sympathy online based on people’s contempt for Thompson’s company and the American health insurance system in general. Mangione’s extradition will almost certainly happen, meaning that when he has his day in court in New York City, there could be a large group of people with differing opinions over the shooting. Changes to how executives of some companies protect themselves are possible, at least in the short term.
France government collapse
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to pick a new prime minister in an attempt to end the political deadlock gripping France following the toppling of Michel Barnier’s government. Barnier’s government was ousted in a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, the first successful attempt in decades, after he used executive power to attempt to ram through a contentious budget. Both the left and the political right — powerful blocs in France’s Parliament — were infuriated by the ramming through a budget which the far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen derided as “toxic.” Barnier continues to serve as prime minister in a caretaker government until Macron names a new candidate.
Watch for: Whoever Macron chooses for the job immediately inherits the same set of problems – attempting to form a working government majority and passing legislation in the face of strong opposition. Any candidate will face pushback from the various blocs, though another centrist or center-right politician in the vein of Barnier, a veteran Conservative, looks likely. Macron could turn to the left and give them a chance but would face issues with their hesitance to implement spending cuts that could spark popular protests. The same goes for the right, who would likely reject tax hikes. Macron faces another hurdle in the far-right National Rally and its parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen, who has her eye on his job at the next presidential election in 2027 but walks a delicate path of maximizing the political pain for him without being seen as causing the impasse. On top of that, dissolving parliament and holding fresh elections is not an option for Macron, having called them this summer under the condition that another vote could not be held for a year. Macron may have to compromise, something he is famously unwilling to do, or he could do what he has done many times before and find a way that comes as a shock to the country’s political establishment.
Syrian conflict
After a surprise offensive that began on Nov. 27, Syrian rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered the capital Damascus in the early hours of Sunday, overthrowing the regime of long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad. The former president fled to Moscow and according to Russia’s foreign ministry, conceded to resign after more than 53 years of Assad family rule in the country. Opposition leader Mohamed al-Bashir confirmed his appointment to head a transitional government in the country until March 1, 2025. In Syria’s northeast, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that will see their forces withdraw from the area in favor of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), a member of the rebel coalition.
Watch for: The new administration has promised it would form a “truly inclusive transitional government” with world agencies keeping an eye on the future of Syria’s ethnic minorities, including the Kurds, Christians and Alawites. Allegations of human rights breaches continue to surface as rebel groups uncover Assad assets across the country, including the infamous Sednaya prison where thousands of political prisoners were said to have been arrested, tortured and killed. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its invasion past the already occupied Golan Heights into the neighboring buffer zone adjacent to Syria. Israel calls the move only “temporary” to protect itsself from neighboring threats, but analysts fear the invasion might expand even further.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Dec. 13-20
Dec. 14
- Georgian presidential election
Dec. 15
- Pope Francis to visit Corsica
Dec. 16
- German government to hold vote of confidence
- U.S. mandates bird flu testing of milk supply
Dec. 17
- Taipei to host Shanghai delegation
Dec. 18
- Federal Reserve meeting
Dec. 20
- Current U.S. spending package expires
- Boeing layoffs begin
Dec. 21-27
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
- Hanukkah begins
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
Dec. 28-Jan. 3
Dec. 29
- Chad parliamentary elections
Dec. 31
- New Year’s Eve
- Gazprom Ukraine gas transit agreement expires
Jan. 1
- New Year’s Day
Jan. 2
- Bail hearing of Monk Chinmoy Das in Bangladesh
Jan. 4-Jan. 10
Jan. 5
- Congestion pricing begins in New York City
Jan. 6
- Congressional certification of 2024 U.S. presidential election
Jan. 10
- Pakistan’s PIA to resume flights to Europe
- Ex-presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office
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Top photo: A U.S. Fish and Wildlife worker cleans avian influenza transportation containers at the Bird Lab at the Alaska Science Center in Anchorage, Alaska, in June 2006. (Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)
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