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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
After a lengthy campaign season, voters in the U.S. head to the polls on Tuesday. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the security concerns surrounding the lead-up to election day, and how officials are preparing.
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Week of Nov. 1-8
A Look Ahead
Nov. 1 – Open enrollment begins on U.S. health insurance marketplace
Americans looking to buy individual health coverage on Affordable Care Act (ACA) insurance marketplaces will be able to enroll starting on Friday through Jan. 15.
What’s happened so far
More than 21 million people signed up for health insurance through ACA marketplaces last year, breaking the previous year’s record of 16.3 million. Participation swelled thanks to Democrat-led tax breaks making lower-cost plans more accessible, but also because millions of people disenrolled from Medicaid last year were left scrambling to get healthcare.
The impact
The Biden-Harris administration finalized policies to extend eligibility to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, known as Dreamers, to enroll in ACA marketplaces for the first time this year, but that could change if 19 states challenging the new rule in federal court successfully make their case. The outcome of the upcoming election may also put the program and the subsidies supporting insurance-buyers at risk, with former President Trump routinely threatening to replace the ACA and end enhanced subsidies on the campaign trail.
Nov. 2 – UK Conservatives announce new leader
The result of postal ballot by Conservative Party members to determine the UK’s new opposition leader will be announced on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Following former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s resignation in the wake of the Conservative Party’s general election defeat in July, members of parliament have been grappling for the party’s top job. In a surprise result earlier this month, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Bandenoch advanced to the final round of the leadership race, eliminating James Cleverly, who was seen by many as the most likely successor of Sunak. Jenrick, the former immigration minister, had notably resigned from Sunak’s cabinet, saying the government’s Rwanda legislation “didn’t go far enough.” He had also promised to pull the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights in order to expel asylum seekers. Former business secretary Badenoch has framed her campaign around returning to “core Conservative values” and telling “hard truths,” seen by some as abrasive, especially when expressing her “anti-woke” values.
The impact
With both candidates seen as appealing to the right of the Conservative Party, many MPs that backed centrist candidate Cleverly have voiced their concerns on the direction the party would take, and whether either of the candidates can unite the party following setbacks in the general election. Marking the end of UK politics’ post-election period, the winner of the race will no doubt play a significant role in shaping the country’s political landscape in the years to come.
There is a rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Nov. 2 – Day of the Dead festivities in Mexico City
On Saturday, millions will participate in Mexico City’s Day of the Dead celebration.
What’s happened so far
It is estimated that around 7 million people will take part in this week’s festivities, culminating in a hours-long large evening procession around central Mexico City, in the country’s famed commemoration of the dead. Traffic disruption will occur across Mexico City’s central areas, with police announcing the deployment of more than 18,000 security personnel for Saturday.
The impact
The parade will start from the Puerto de Los Leones monument and will head to the Plaza de la Constitucion in a four to five hour process. Expect delays in transport, and a heavy police presence along the route of the procession.
Nov. 3 – Moldovan presidential runoff
The second round of Moldova’s presidential election will be held on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
This vote quickly follows the first round vote from two weeks prior in which incumbent pro-western President Maia Sandu handily won a plurality of votes. She will face off against second place finisher Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Socialist Party. Moldovans also voted by a razor thin margin of 50.46 percent to back European Union accession in a shockingly close referendum characterized by “unprecedented” Russian interference.
The impact
The surprisingly close EU accession referendum served as a disappointment for Sandu who had hoped voters would resoundingly grant tacit approval to her plan to guide Moldova into the EU by 2030. While not as direct, the second round race will provide voters with another opportunity to grant Sandu and her pro-western government a mandate to continue the process of removing the former Soviet colony from Moscow’s orbit as Russia attempts to interfere in the vote enough to prevent it.
Nov. 4 – Jammu & Kashmir assembly session begins
The state assembly of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir will begin its session Monday after the National Conference (NC) party secured a victory in the region’s first polls since 2014.
What’s happened so far
The five-day session will include the election of the speaker and deputy speaker as well as an address by the lieutenant governor. The speaker is likely to belong to the NC, which won 42 of the legislature’s 90 seats in the recent elections against its main opposition Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The impact
Among the most important items on the agenda are plans by the NC to introduce a resolution to return the region to its statehood status which was stripped by Modi in 2019, revoking the territory of most of its autonomy. However, the BJP says it will oppose any efforts to do so. It remains to be seen whether the NC is able to achieve its objectives with a federally backed opposition.
Nov. 5 – U.S. general election
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will wrap up the 2024 campaign season on Tuesday, as voters decide on the nation’s next commander-in-chief.
What’s happened so far
As of Thursday morning, more than 58 million ballots had already been cast across the country, according to a tally by NBC. With polls tight in the seven swing states — North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — considered likely to determine the outcome of the presidential race, it appears unlikely a winner will be known on election night. Meanwhile, Republicans appear likely to take control of the Senate, but may lose their narrow majority in the House.
The impact
The Department of Homeland Security had warned in recent months of a “heightened risk” of extremists carrying out attacks on drop boxes — a scenario that played out earlier this week in southwest Washington state and Portland, Ore., where hundreds of ballots were destroyed in an apparent arson attack — as well as polling places. Some observers have raised concerns Trump could declare victory prematurely, sowing discord in the days following the election if the results change as the remaining votes are counted.
Nov. 7 – Federal Reserve meeting
The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
What’s happened so far
In September, the Fed slashed interest rates by a half point, its first such move since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The last jobs report before the meeting, due out Friday, will come with several caveats, with the numbers impacted by both the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the ongoing Boeing machinists strike.
The impact
A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists found a unanimous expectation that the Fed will cut its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point, with the vast majority expecting them to do so again in December.
What Else Matters
Georgian election fallout
The incumbent Georgian Dream party claimed victory in Georgia’s parliamentary election last Saturday while opposition parties have alleged mass vote rigging and refused to recognize the results. Both the European Union and the U.S. have voiced concerns around reported violations and “democratic backsliding” in the Caucasus nation. Results published by the Central Election Commission show Georgian Dream with an outright majority of 54 percent of the vote (89 seats), far more than had been forecast by western pollsters. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, also the leader of Georgian Dream Party, has rejected the rigging accusations, dismissing “a couple of provocations”. Since the vote, opposition forces led by President Salome Zourabichvili held a protest on Monday drawing thousands of people in the capital Tbilisi, calling for an international review of the election.
Watch for: The election came at a time of unprecedented polarization in Georgian society with Georgian Dream’s politics increasingly perceived as Russia-friendly and undemocratic. Although the party says it remains committed to EU integration, talks have been frozen with the bloc after the party pushed through a controversial “foreign agents” bill. The political standoff will likely continue with opposition politicians refusing to take seats in the parliament. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has initiated impeachment proceedings against pro-western President Zourabichvili and the party’s founder has vowed to ban opposition parties. Protests against Georgian Dream will almost certainly continue, but it is unlikely the opposition will succeed in preventing the party from forming government and continuing to push reforms perceived as undemocratic and deviating from the path of EU integration.
Unrest in Martinique
Violent protests have swept the French Caribbean island of Martinique since Sept. 1 as residents demand Paris act to lower the price of food, which is 40 percent more expensive than mainland France. Demonstrations have been spearheaded by the Rally for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RPPRAC), a protest group representing the island’s majority Black population. Protest actions since early September have included dozens of roadblocks, the looting of small businesses, closure of the island’s airport and commercial ports, and at times shootouts with police. At least one person has been killed and over 30 injured during the unrest, prompting French officials to implement a number of curfews and a ban on the purchase of flammable goods.
Watch for: Paris reached an agreement with food distributors on Oct. 17 to attempt to lower the price of roughly 6,000 products by a goal of 20 percent. The deal was not signed by RPPRAC, who have continued protesting amid calls for a more comprehensive deal and reforms to the “Octroi de mer” tariffs imposed on imports to France’s overseas territories, originally created to protect local island businesses. France’s other overseas territories, namely New Caledonia and Guadeloupe, have experienced more significant political unrest this year stemming from their enduring colonial relationships with l’Hexagone. Given the election of a more left-wing and anti-colonial French legislature in 2024, and conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tenuous grasp on power, it is not impossible that Paris could push for a more comprehensive solution to the multiple overseas crises.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 1-8
Nov. 1
- U.K. tube drivers strike
Nov. 2
- Dia de los Muertos
- U.K. Conservatives announce new leader
Nov. 4
- Jammu and Kashmir assembly session begins
Nov. 5
- U.S. presidential election
Nov. 7
- Federal Reserve meeting
Nov. 8
- Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet
Nov. 9-15
Nov. 10
- Mauritius legislative elections
Nov. 12
- Palau elections
Nov. 12
- Somaliland presidential elections
Nov. 14
- Sri Lanka elections
Nov. 16-22
Nov. 18
- Trump assassination attempt suspect trial
Nov. 23-29
Nov. 23
- India’s Maharashtra election
Nov. 24
- Uruguay presidential runoff
Nov. 26
- Former President Donald Trump’s sentencing in hush money criminal case
Nov. 27
- Indonesia regional elections
Nov. 29
- Spain’s ruling PSOE federal convention
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Top photo: Incumbent Maia Sandu took more than 42 percent of the vote in the first round of Moldova’s presidential election on Oct. 20. (Photo: The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova / Flickr)
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