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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Armed separatists killed more than 70 people in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan this week, including nearly two dozen civilians who were forced out of their vehicles, identified as being from Punjab and then shot. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss the intensifying violence, its connection to a decades-long insurgency and ongoing threats.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Aug. 30-Sept. 6
A Look Ahead
Aug. 31 – Border Force strike at London Heathrow begins
More than 600 passport control workers at Heathrow, the United Kingdom’s busiest airport, plan to walk off the job Saturday for a four-day strike, followed by nearly three weeks of “work-to-rule” action where no work is done beyond what is contractually obligated, including overtime.
What’s happened so far
The work stoppage comes on the heels of previous strike actions in April, May and June, with the the Public and Commercial Services Union saying its members are “being forced out of the job they love” due to inflexible work schedules. Earlier this year, members of the armed forces were reportedly being trained to cover for striking Border Force workers, but it’s unclear if they are expected to step in in this instance.
The impact
The union claims their strike, will likely cause “serious disruptions to travelers,” while a Heathrow spokesperson told the BBC the airport has worked through previous industrial action. Travelers, however, are encouraged to check the latest guidance from their airline before arriving for their flights.
Sept. 1 – Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election
Azerbaijan will vote Sunday in the country’s parliamentary elections.
What’s happened so far
President Ilham Aliyev issued a decree dissolving parliament in late June, paving the way for elections that are being held early to reportedly avoid a scheduling clash with the UN COP29 climate conference that Azerbaijan is hosting in November. A team of more than 280 election monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will observe the polls, their 14th mission to the country. The OSCE’s report into the February 2024 presidential election, the last poll it observed, was critical of the restrictive environment and lack of alternative political choices in a “contest devoid of genuine pluralism.”
The impact
Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan party is expected to win a majority, potentially increasing its number of seats from 69 in the 125-seat parliament where a number of opposition parties remain loyal to the president. Some opposition parties have been critical of the decision to hold the vote early, saying there is no chance to win under Aliyev’s oppressive regime.
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Sept. 1 – German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony
Elections in two eastern states on Sunday could change Germany’s political landscape ahead of next year’s federal elections.
What’s happened so far
Germany’s East votes much differently than the country’s West. Three parties are seen as the frontrunners there: the conservatives, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance (BSW), which is socially conservative and economically socialist. Wagenknecht and other Bundestag members who split from The Left party founded the BSW earlier this year. The well-liked Wagenknecht, who began her political career with East Germany’s communist party, has recently attacked the mainstream left on things like Ukraine support and climate change.
The impact
Polls suggest the AfD could win elections in Thuringia and Saxony, while the BSW outperforms The Left party in those states. That would put both of the eurosceptic Russia-friendly parties in prime position for governing. Polls show the AfD winning at least 33 percent of the parliamentary seats Sunday, which would allow it to block decisions like the appointment of judges and changes to the state constitution. But the AfD is unlikely to have enough support to form a governing coalition as no other party will work with them. Regardless of the outcome, both parties will likely gain influence, posing a threat for Germany’s major parties in next year’s general election.
Sept. 1 – 66th session of Mexico’s Congress convenes
The 66th legislature of Mexico’s Congress will convene Sunday in Mexico City.
What’s happened so far
The new congress will convene for the first time after the election of MORENA party’s Claudia Sheinbaum as the country’s new president (members’ link). Sheinbaum, the successor of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will have the support of a MORENA majority at the chamber during the first three years of her six-year presidential term.
The impact
The start of the legislature will be marked by MORENA’s efforts to push a package of 18 constitutional reforms that include significant changes to the country’s electoral system and the judiciary. The reform of the judiciary, which includes controversial points like the election of judges by popular vote, is expected to be ratified in congress in early September, despite strikes by judiciary workers and criticism from the opposition and the U.S. government, which have expressed concerns over a possible loss of autonomy of the judicial body. Outgoing President AMLO said the reform aims to eliminate “corruption” in the judiciary.
Sept. 2 – Pope visits Asia
Pope Francis will depart Rome on Monday and begin an 11-night trip, visiting four nations across Asia and Oceania.
What’s happened so far
Francis’s 45th Apostolic Journey abroad is scheduled to start with a three-night visit to Jakarta, Indonesia, where he will meet President Joko Widodo. Francis will then head to Papua New Guinea for three nights, with stops in Port Moresby and Vanimo, and then two nights in Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste. The trip is scheduled to conclude with a three-day visit in Singapore.
The impact
Much attention will likely be on Francis’s time in Indonesia, where he’ll visit Istiqlal mosque, the largest mosque in Southeast Asia. That’s where he’ll hold an interfaith meeting with representatives of the country’s six officially recognized religions. The meeting comes as the the most populated country of Southeast Asia continues to face challenges to its tolerant image. The trip marks the 87-year-old’s longest journey of his pontificate, according to the Vatican, and comes as he continues to deal with ailing health.
Sept. 5 – Hunter Biden tax trial
President Joe Biden’s son Hunter will stand trial in Los Angeles beginning Thursday for allegedly evading taxes from 2016-2019, only two months after he was convicted of a federal gun charge.
What’s happened so far
Prosecutors allege that Hunter Biden did not pay an estimated $1.4 million in federal taxes between 2016 and 2019 while in the throes of his public drug and alcohol addiction. Hunter allegedly wrote off his lavish spending, including luxury hotels and escorts, as tax deductible business spending. Hunter has pleaded not guilty to all nine federal charges against him and could face up to 17 years in jail if convicted, on top of whatever sentence he is handed down for his June gun charge conviction.
The impact
The prosecution and defense have battled in court over what evidence should be admissible in the trial. Hunter’s lawyers have attempted to block references to his “salacious” playboy lifestyle, while prosecutors argue the details reveal his premeditated decision to manipulate his taxes. Prosecutors said they will not broach the subject of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, or Hunter’s relation to the Obama administration, but will explore his income from foreign business connections that have been highlighted by Republican naysayers. President Biden has publicly said he will not pardon his son, but it remains to be seen how the situation could impact the general perception of the Democratic Party.
Sept. 6 – NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
On Friday, the NFL will host its first-ever football game in Brazil.
What’s happened so far
The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will play Friday in the Neo Química Arena in the Artur Alvim area of Brazil’s largest city, São Paulo, with Brazilian singer Anitta headlining the event, which will also feature performances of both nations’ anthems. The stadium seats approximately 50,000 people, and additional events are planned throughout the weekend for football fans in the city.
The impact
São Paulo has been dealing with an unprecedented amount of fatal wildfires across the interior of the state, causing smoke to be swept over the city, but that shouldn’t affect the NFL event on Friday. Security will likely be heightened throughout the weekend, with traffic disruptions expected as fans flock to the city.
What Else Matters
Russian missile strikes across Ukraine
Russia ended a period of relative long-range missile strike dormancy earlier this week by unleashing its largest combined missile and drone barrage across Ukraine on Monday morning. The strikes, which left multiple civilians dead, targeted the majority of Ukraine’s non-frontline regions, including Kyiv and the western Lviv and Volyn regions. One Russian strike drone penetrated Polish airspace bordering western Ukraine for more than 30 minutes before disappearing from radar, marking the third such occurrence of a Russian projectile violating the airspace of the NATO ally.
Watch for: Moscow’s missile wave rekindled its long-running campaign of systemic targeting of Ukraine’s electrical grid and prompted widespread rolling blackouts across the country and emergency requests to import electricity from Poland and Slovakia. Kyiv has yet to provide details on the full extent to the damage to its electrical grid, though Moscow’s most recent campaign this spring knocked more than 80 percent of the country’s thermal electrical production offline. Spillover effects were also felt in Moldova, where voltage drops were reported on the shared electrical grid with Ukraine. The strikes could presage another winter of attacks on Ukraine’s nationwide grid akin to the one Moscow undertook two years ago, though the two sides have reportedly engaged in preliminary discussions to halt such strikes. Ominously, Moscow also targeted the Kyiv Hydroelectric plant for the first time since the war’s outbreak. Though the dam’s structural integrity remains despite being damaged, destruction could cause catastrophic downstream flooding in Kyiv.
Attacks in Balochistan
More than 70 people have been killed, including security personnel, civilians and militants, after coordinated attacks claimed by separatists in Pakistan’s Balochistan province since Sunday. The attacks, deemed the province’s deadliest in recent history, are said to have been carried out by 800 fighters belonging to the separatist group Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and targeted police stations, paramilitary camps and public infrastructure. Pakistan’s Army responded quickly to the attacks, killing 21 militants and losing 14 members of security forces in the process. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif promised to provide the military with “any financial resources” needed as it continues its operations to find the perpetrators of the attack.
Watch for: Although the BLA itself was formed in 2000, the province has been home to a decades-long insurgency with the primary goal of independence from Pakistan’s central government. Prime Minister Sharif has refused to engage in any negotiations with the group, saying talks could only be held with those who “acknowledged Pakistan’s Constitution and flag.” The recent attacks indicate the BLA has become more organized and its operational capabilities have increased, meaning unrest in the region could become the norm. The BLA routinely targets non-local workers in the province, especially those hailing from Punjab, and more attacks can be expected. Analysts also believe the recent attacks were an attempt to sabotage the country’s efforts to secure international investment in the province, which is home to a number of large China-led projects. Attacks against Chinese workers, as previously claimed by the BLA, are common and the trend is likely to continue.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 30-Sept. 6
Aug. 31
- Border officers strike at Heathrow
Sept. 1
- Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election
- 66th session of Mexico’s Congress convenes
- German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony
Sept. 2
- Pope visits Asia
Sept. 5
- Hunter Biden criminal tax trial
Sept. 6
- NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
Sept. 7-13
Sept. 7
- Algeria presidential election
Sept. 10
- Jordan parliamentary elections
- ABC News presidential debate
Sept. 11
- MTV Video Music Awards
Sept. 14-20
Sept. 16
- Appeals court hearing on U.S. TikTok ban
Sept. 17
- Possible Fox News presidential debate
Sept. 18
- CNN vice presidential debate
- Federal Reserve Meeting
- Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir
- Trump hush money case sentencing
Sept. 21-27
Sept. 21
- Sri Lanka presidential elections
Sept. 22
- Japan’s PM Kishida U.S. visit
- Germany’s Brandenburg elections
Sept. 27
- Japan’s ruling LDP to hold party’s leadership election
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Top photo: More than 600 passport control workers will walk off the job Saturday at London’s Heathrow Airport. (Photo: Danny Howard / Flickr CC BY 2.0)
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