Factal
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss Russia’s rare daytime bombardment of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, plus more on elections in Rwanda and Syria, the Republican National Convention and senior Chinese leaders meeting.
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This episode was produced with work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Awais Ahmed, Agnese Boffano, Joe Veyera and Vivian Wang. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
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Factal Forecast podcast transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is July 11.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, elections in Rwanda and Syria, the Republican National Convention and senior Chinese leaders meeting.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Kyiv Strikes
Information compiled by Alex Moore
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at Russia’s heaviest bombardment of Kyiv in months. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe desk, Senior Editor Alex Moore.
JIMMY: Hello, Alex.
ALEX: Hello, Jimmy.
JIMMY: Well, Alex, it’s been a couple of months since we had you on the podcast talking about Russia and Ukraine, but we recently saw some pretty notable strikes in Kyiv and I’m hoping you can get our listeners up to speed. So, what’s going on?
ALEX: Yeah, happy to do so. The other day, earlier this week, on Monday it was, Russia, in the early hours Ukraine time, undertook some heavy bombardment of mainly the capital Kyiv. The death toll currently is at 34, more than 120 others injured in the strikes, which targeted 7 out of the 10 districts of Kyiv. Most notably, of course, Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital was directly struck by a cruise missile. We’ll get into more on that later on what exactly hit it. And this destroyed multiple units of the hospital leading to international outcry. And it’s also worth noting that in this barrage, Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk was also struck and 10 people were killed there as well, during the same barrage. But the strikes involved air and sea-launch cruise missiles as well as air and ground-launched ballistic missiles from Russia. So it was a pretty significant strike package. And as noted, Kyiv got the brunt of it, but other cities were targeted as well. And this came on the heels of another wave of airstrikes that took place hours prior in the middle of the night. But, we will get into more later on the tactics involved in the strike.
JIMMY: Well what’s the latest? Have there been any new developments?
ALEX: Yeah, so in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, which again, what was notable about them is they took place during daytime hours and ever since a little over two years ago, really, airstrikes that Russia undertakes well beyond the front lines of Ukraine – so strikes targeting Kyiv and Western Ukraine using cruise missiles – they almost exclusively take place in the middle of the night between the hours of usually 2 to 5 a.m. These took place around 8 to 10 a.m. local time, which is very, very rare. So as part of this, there was a plethora of media of the strikes taking place. And so the Russian Defense Ministry in the Kremlin, they were quick to confirm that they had partaken in a missile barrage targeting Kyiv, but they and their related propagandists sort of seized upon media showing the missiles approaching targets to try to allege that the children’s hospital was struck by a Western-supplied surface-to-air missile system. And the story was bogus to begin with. I mean, it took open source researchers minutes to, sort of, verify that this was a Kh-101 Russian cruise missile. But nevertheless, they couldn’t even get their stories straight – some of their propagandists were saying Patriot, the Kremlin said NASAMS, so that was an interesting little fold introduced. But the widespread consensus in the expert community was that this was a Russian missile that struck the children’s hospital and as noted earlier, the death toll currently stands at 34 across Kyiv.
JIMMY: What sort of reactions to the strikes have you seen?
ALEX: There was widespread condemnation. And the strikes coincided with the NATO Summit taking place in Washington, D.C., and only further served to bolster the continued necessity to bolster Ukraine’s air defense apparatus, both in numbers and the advancement of systems, but also, crucially, the ammunition for the systems because, obviously, it’s a numbers game where Ukraine needs the requisite number of interceptors to deal with all the various projectiles that Russia lobs into Ukrainian airspace constantly. And it’s possible that this could have explained the daytime strike angle as well as the very quick and coordinated propaganda push to allege that the hospital was struck by a Western air defense missile. That could possibly have been deliberate. Obviously, that’s not confirmed. This is just merely an observation. But yeah.
JIMMY: Well, I know you can’t read the minds of Putin or Zelinsky, but what do you think folks should be watching for next?
ALEX: The main thing I’d keep watching for, honestly, is whether the strikes continue to take place during daytime hours. There’s rationale for doing so at night. It – it doesn’t like, obviously – it makes no difference from a radar tracking standpoint whether the strikes take place at night or during the day. Obviously, the radar components that are networked with missile defense can detect the missiles either way, usually. But still, it adds an extra layer of secrecy to do it in the middle of the night, obviously. There’s also the psychological impact of doing that. But I would continue to watch for Russia partaking in these raids into central and western Ukraine during daytime hours and see if this continues to be a sort of concerted and organized propaganda push to allege that these are Western interceptors that are malfunctioning. Moreover, we saw Russia engage in, as I noted earlier, a much more limited strike hours prior during the typical hours. So, typically, what will happen is Russia will launch bombers, either from Saratov or Murmansk, usually it’s from Murmansk these days because Ukraine’s bombed Saratov a couple times, and it will take these planes a couple of hours to reach the Caspian Sea because they’re flying from up north near the Arctic Circle. And so it’s sort of a formulaic thing, right? You can, you can sort of know when the launches will take place, when the missiles will reach Ukrainian airspace, and Russia did this at sort of a far lower scale in the hours preceding the massive wave. And then they followed that up with a very complex, large-scale strike, which, I noted, involved sea-launched missiles, air-launched missiles, ground-launched missiles. So this could have been Russia employing new tactics to sort of further confuse Ukrainian air defense efforts. Moreover, the Ukrainians noted that the Russian cruise missiles were flying at a particularly low altitude, in some instances as low as 150 feet off the ground. This makes intercepting them both tricky but also dangerous because it’s still obviously a very live projectile when it’s intercepted that low to the ground. And as this war continues to drag on, and Russia’s rates of precision guided munition usage continue to be sky high, they are employing not newer systems, but newer-built systems, if that makes sense, so they can sort of introduce additional tweaks into the fold, so to speak, with the missiles’ ability to confuse radar and ultimately hit targets. So along with the daytime strike angle, I would continue to keep an eye on whether or not these strikes continue to be sort of prosecuted with additional layers of complexity, like the one that we saw take place on Monday.
JIMMY: Well, Alex, let’s pause there for today, but as usual, thank you so much for your time and for keeping us informed. Always appreciate it.
ALEX: Yeah, of course. Thank you, Jimmy.
Rwanda general elections
Information compiled by Awais Ahmad
JIMMY: Rwanda’s presidential and parliamentary elections are set to take place on Monday.
But they come amid concerns of repression against political opposition and the media.
President Paul Kagame has been in power since helping end the genocide that killed some 800,000 people in 1994.
And while the Central African nation has seen significant economic improvements under Kagame, his administration has been accused of human rights violations as well as unfair prosecution of opposition members and intimidation of activists.
Now, the elections also come amid rising tensions with neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kagame has been accused of backing rebel forces that have carried out massacres resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of people in the eastern DRC.
Still, Kagame is likely to win a fourth term owing to the restrictive political environment.
Syria parliamentary elections
Information compiled by Agnese Boffano
JIMMY: Syria’s presidency announced that the country will hold its parliamentary elections on Monday.
The polls come as Syria’s civil war continues well into its second decade.
They also come as economic hardships deepen in the country, with the Syrian pound trading at 14,700 to the dollar compared to its 50:1 ratio in 2011.
Voting will not include more than 6 million Syrian refugees currently displaced outside of the country.
Voting will also not take place in areas controlled by Kurdish groups. Their elections commission postponed its planned municipal elections for rebel-held areas until August.
The Syrian government announced that it selected more than 8,100 election polling stations across areas controlled by government forces.
Now, analysts have described the 250-seat People’s Assembly as an essential “rubber-stamp legislature”.
It’s been controlled by the governing Baathist party since it came to power in the 1963 coup d’etat.
Decades-long legislation has ensured two-thirds of the seats are automatically allocated to candidates of the Baath party and its allied National Progressive Front.
And although this year’s elections, like those in 2020, are more about the consolidation of power rather than political revival, there is some speculation about a change within the Baathist party as some new younger players within the war economy are set to win seats.
The primary job set for the newly elected parliament, however, will be to seek amendments to the term limits within the constitution to allow for incumbent President Bashar al-Assad to run again in 2028.
RNC begins
Information compiled by Joe Veyera
JIMMY: More than 50,000 people are expected to attend the Republican National Convention starting Monday in Milwaukee.
That’s where delegates will officially nominate Donald Trump as the party’s presidential pick.
Trump is expected to announce his choice for vice president in the coming days, potentially during the convention itself.
He will undoubtedly try to capitalize on the outsized media attention for the so-called “convention bounce” in polls that already show him ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden in key swing states expected to decide the election.
Now, local activists plan to march on Monday afternoon and estimate a crowd of around 5,000 demonstrators.
Still, a district judge ruled this week that protesters cannot march through the security zone surrounding the venue.
Meanwhile, area restaurants and venues have expressed disappointment that a promised financial windfall from the festivities does not seem to be materializing.
20th China’s Central Committee plenary session
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee will hold its third plenum beginning Monday.
The meeting was expected to be held in October or November last year, but authorities pushed the plenary session into this summer, marking ot the first time in more than three decades that it’s been held in an off-schedule year.
The conclave gathers hundreds of government and academic leaders across China and typically focuses on economic issues.
State media has reported the plenum will cover “comprehensively deepening reforms and pushing forward Chinese-style modernization.”
Now, investors, analysts and experts will be watching for signs of major economic policy shifts and reform. Still, details will likely be scarce as the meeting is largely held behind closed doors, followed by a communique.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Awais Ahmad, Agnese Boffano, Joe Veyera and Vivian Wang. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
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