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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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Israel launched a massive raid in the occupied northern West Bank town of Jenin this week, leaving more than 10 people dead, 100 injured and armed Palestinian groups vowing retaliation. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss the implications of the raid as well as Israel’s warning of more incursions to come.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of July 7-14
A Look Ahead
July 9 – Uzbekistan snap elections
Uzbeks will head to the polls Sunday to vote in early general elections called by incumbent President Shavkat Mirziyoyev after making sweeping changes to the constitution.
What’s happened so far
Uzbeks backed a reform referendum in April, allowing Mirziyoyev to run for two more terms. The vote also raised each tenure from five to seven years, potentially allowing the longtime leader to remain in power until 2037. Mirziyoyev called for elections more than three years early, framing the snap polls as a renewal of his mandate after rewriting chunks of the constitution. Both the referendum and the 2021 presidential election took place in an atmosphere lacking pluralism and competition, according to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
The impact
Three other parties have fielded candidates, with two parties backing Mirziyoyev. The incumbent is widely expected to get reelected in an environment with little appetite for criticism of the government. More than 20 people were killed in a 2022 uprising over an earlier version of the referendum that would have stripped the autonomous Karakalpakstan republic of its right to separate from mainland Uzbekistan. With Mirziyoyev slated to remain in power for the foreseeable future, the country’s future will be charted in all likelihood in his image, one which could include subsuming Karakalpakstan and further cracking down on dissent.
July 9 – UN to start taking deep-sea mining applications
Following a series of negotiations in May, the International Seabed Authority will start accepting applications Sunday from companies that wish to mine the seabed and is set to come to conclusion before the end of July.
What’s happened so far
Deep-sea mining has long been a controversial issue. While the seabed, particularly in the North Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico, possess huge amounts of rocks that contain essential minerals for making batteries, extracting these minerals from four miles under the ocean floor is potentially harmful to the aquatic ecosystems. In 2021, the island nation of Nauru, which argues that deep-sea mining is more sustainable than traditional mining, filed a motion calling for the United Nations to regulate the practice. Opponents of the practice, meanwhile, have raised concerns over the lack of scientific data.
The impact
While the deep sea is relatively under-explored, scientists and environmental groups have warned that noise, vibration and light pollution, as well as possible leaks of chemicals in the mining process, might damage the ecosystem and impact biodiversity. France, Germany and some Pacific Island nations have officially called for a moratorium on deep-sea mining.
July 9 – Deadline for Venezuelans abroad to register for opposition primaries
Venezuelan nationals who live outside the country will be able to register to vote in the opposition’s primaries until Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Venezuela’s National Primaries Commission extended the deadline for Venezuelan nationals abroad to register to vote in the opposition’s primaries leading up to the country’s presidential elections in 2024. The extension was announced on July 3 amid low registration numbers at the end of June among nationals who have left the country, which amounts to almost 5 million potential voters. The opposition’s primaries will take place on Oct. 22 following recent years of internal divisions among the coalition against the officialist chavista movement.
The impact
The Venezuelan opposition hopes to choose a strong candidate to face President Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 elections out of more than a dozen options, including some high-level names like former Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles. The primaries will be organized with private funds and independently from the country’s official electoral body. Maria Corina Machado, one of the favorites to represent the opposition in the race, was banned from holding public office for 15 years in June after the comptroller’s office reviewed and extended a previous disqualification sentence dating back to 2015, a move criticized by the United States.
July 10 – King Charles to meet Biden at Windsor Castle
For the first time since the coronation, U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with the King of England on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The White House announced on Sunday that Biden would travel to Lithuania for a NATO Summit, then a U.S.-Nordic Leaders Summit in Finland. But his first stop will be to Windsor Castle in London, where he will meet with King Charles and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. This will be Biden’s second meeting with Sunak in a month, after the two announced a “first-of-its-kind” economic partnership in early June. Biden has spoken with representatives of the U.K. several times during his presidency while also celebrating Ireland as part of his heritage.
The impact
During his time in office, Biden has made it a priority to reestablish U.S. alliances on the worldwide stage. That includes the United States’ relationship with the United Kingdom, which both parties described as “close” and “strong.” Over the past few months, both nations have presented a united front on several issues, most notably Ukraine. A closer relationship may also eventually lead to a U.K.-U.S. trade pact, although a much more narrow one than what has been talked about since Brexit.
July 11 – MLB All-Star Game in Seattle
T-Mobile Park in Seattle will host some of Major League Baseball’s top talent Tuesday for the 93rd annual Midsummer Classic.
What’s happened so far
At the rough halfway point of the season, the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays sport the league’s best records, while two-way player Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels and Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. are the favorites to win their respective leagues’ most valuable player honor. Hometown fans will see budding superstar Julio Rodríguez of the Mariners take part in Monday’s Home Run Derby as well as Tuesday’s game, the latter alongside teammates Luis Castillo and George Kirby.
The impact
The Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce is expecting as many as 100,000 visitors to the city and an economic impact of $50 million for the All Star Game, Home Run Derby and other festivities. However, the game itself has experienced a sharp decline in fan interest, with roughly 7.5 million TV viewers tuned in for last year’s event, the lowest figure on record. In response, the league has instituted several rule changes to spark interest, including the introduction of a pitch clock, which has shortened the average game time by nearly 30 minutes compared to the 2022 season.
July 11 – NATO summit in Lithuania
NATO leaders will meet in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius starting Tuesday for a two-day summit.
What’s happened so far
The summit coincides with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surpassing its 500th day, with the war promising to feature heavily in alliance discussions as Ukraine’s counteroffensive enters its second month. U.S. President Joe Biden will be in attendance, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called ahead of the summit for clearer signals from the alliance regarding Kyiv’s path to membership after the conclusion of the war and more concrete security guarantees as the war continues.
The impact
Leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine’s counteroffensive targeting Russian-occupied territory in the south. It remains unclear how Kyiv has used brigades trained and equipped by NATO countries for this operation, but progress has been slow as Ukraine deals with multiple layers of heavily fortified Russian positions. With high-profile losses of western-supplied armor already taken and more sure to come, NATO leaders will likely discuss how best to assist Kyiv’s efforts to breach Russian defenses. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s stunning aborted mutiny against Russia’s defense ministry will also likely factor in given his exile to Belarus. Poland has already announced plans to bolster security along its Belarusian border in the wake of Wagner’s relocation.
What Else Matters
French police shooting protests
After nearly a week of unrest that shut down France (members’ link) following the fatal police shooting of a 17-year-old, the Macron government is now attempting to address the fallout. Nahel Merzouk was shot by an officer last Tuesday morning in Nanterre, France, while allegedly attempting to drive away from a traffic stop. Captured on video, the shooting sparked near-immediate protests in the working-class suburb of Paris that quickly spread to cities across France. The French Interior Ministry estimated more than 2,500 buildings were damaged or vandalized and more than 12,000 vehicles were burned in the unrest. The detention of the officer involved did little to subdue protests, and curfews were enacted across the country going into the weekend.
Watch for: While the French government says protests have calmed significantly this week, more than 45,000 officers remain deployed nationwide. Meanwhile the federal government remains in crisis mode attempting to respond to the unrest. In a meeting with all 220 mayors, President Emmanuel Macron reportedly raised the idea of banning social media “when things get out of control,” sparking immediate backlash from both sides of the political spectrum. More than 3,900 people were arrested in the protests, and the judicial system is now scrambling to conduct hasty trials. French officials say most of those arrested are minors, and Macron has suggested fining parents, though the legality of that is unclear. Meanwhile, the investigation into Merzouk’s death is ongoing.
Deadly Israeli raid in Jenin, West Bank
In the early hours of July 3, Israeli forces began a large-scale operation in the northern West Bank town of Jenin and its neighboring refugee camp. As the raid continued over several days, Israeli forces conducted multiple strikes and engaged in shootouts with Palestinians, leaving at least 10 Palestinians dead and more than 100 others injured. Thousands of residents also evacuated to nearby hospitals and refugee centers. As a result, the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank, ended its security coordination with Israel.
Watch for: Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas in Gaza, have vowed to retaliate in response to the largest military operation in the West Bank since the Second Intifada in the early 2000s. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held several security meetings amid fears of possible attacks within Israel or targeting illegal settlements in the West Bank. On Tuesday, five people were injured in Tel Aviv in a suspected car-ramming, which Israel is calling a terror attack.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 7-14
July 7
- Russian nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus
July 9
- Snap election in Uzbekistan
- UN to start taking deep-sea mining applications
- Deadline for Venezuelans abroad to register to vote in opposition primaries
July 10
- King Charles to meet Biden at Windsor Castle
July 11
- MLB All-Star Game in Seattle
- NATO summit in Lithuania
July 12
- New minimum wage for NYC food delivery workers comes into effect
July 15-21
July 17
- Black Sea grain deal expires
July 20
- Women’s World Cup 2023 begins
- Election to replace U.K.’s Boris Johnson
July 22-28
July 23
- Cambodia elections
- Spain elections
July 25
- Guatemala elections
July 29-Aug. 4
July 30
- Referendum for new constitution in Central African Republic
Aug. 2
- Pope Francis visits Portugal
Aug. 3
- Start of six-month ceasefire between ELN and Colombian government
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