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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Cameroon’s 92-year-old President Paul Biya was declared the winner of the country’s presidential election this week, securing an eighth term in office despite widespread protests and concerns over the election’s integrity. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss reactions to the world’s oldest president extending his rule and what to watch for next.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Oct. 31- Nov. 7
A Look Ahead
Nov. 1 | ACA open enrollment begins, SNAP runs out
Enrollment opens Saturday for Americans looking to get insurance through the Affordable Care Act on the same day the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is set to stop issuing benefits amid the government shutdown.
What’s happened so far
Congress has failed several times to end the shutdown since it began Oct. 1, with Democrats and Republicans trading blame for the situation. Democrats insist that Republicans address the soon-expiring ACA tax credits, while Republicans argue the shutdown must end before negotiations can begin. In a message posted on its website, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that, due to the shutdown, “the well has run dry,” and no SNAP benefits would be issued on Saturday. The announcement sparked a lawsuit Tuesday from a group including over two dozen Democratic state attorneys general and governors.
The impact
In the lawsuit, states argued the failure to pay SNAP benefits is unlawful and “will cause deterioration of public health and well-being,” with the states ultimately bearing the cost of the decision. More than 40 million Americans receive an average of $187 each month in SNAP benefits, according to the USDA. Meanwhile, the non-profit KFF estimates that ACA Marketplace out-of-pocket premiums will be 114 percent higher than average next year if Congress fails to reach an agreement to continue the tax credits central government shutdown battle. If lawmakers fail to come to an agreement in the coming days, the shutdown could become the longest in U.S. history.
Nov. 1 | Trump threatens 100 percent tariffs on China
An additional 100 percent tariff on China’s U.S.-bond exports will go into effect Saturday if leaders of the world’s two largest economies do not reach a deal.
What’s happened so far
The latest flare ups in the China-U.S. trade war came ahead of an expected meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, this Thursday. China’s commerce ministry announced expansion of controls on its rare earth exports earlier this month. China produces over 90 percent of the world’s rare earths and rare earth magnets, which are vital materials in a range of high-tech products including semiconductors, electric vehicles, aircraft engines and military radars. In response, Trump vowed additional levies of 100 percent on Chinese imports and restrictions on “any and all critical software” by Nov. 1. Following talks between American and Chinese delegations in Malaysia over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the negotiators had reached a “very substantial framework” for the two leaders to discuss, which could avoid the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and delay China’s restrictions on rare earths exports.
The impact
According to Bessent, the Chinese also agreed to help stop the flow of chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl, as well as making “substantial” purchases of US soybeans. As the deadline of the 90-day truce between Beijing and Washington nears, analysts and investors will be keeping a close eye on the potential deal that could come out of Thursday’s meeting and its impact on the market.
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Nov. 2 | OPEC+ meeting
The world’s eight largest oil-producing nations will meet on Sunday amid reports they are expected to agree on a slight output boost for December. According to unnamed industry sources consulted by Reuters, the eight are likely to hike production by a further 137,000 barrels per day.
What’s happened so far
The expected boost to oil production comes as part of a phased restoration of volumes after OPEC+ curbed production over several years in a bid to support the oil market. Additional supply contributed to a five-month low in the oil price on Oct. 20 due to concerns of a supply glut. Prices have since rallied to around $66 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump targeted Russia’s largest oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil with sanctions in a bid to pressure Moscow back to the negotiating table over the war in Ukraine.
The impact
It is likely that the impact of the U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil sector will be felt in Asia, where Russia redirected its oil exports in response to western sanctions. India and China currently import between 3.5 and 4.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, much of which comes from newly-sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft.
Nov. 4 | U.S. election day
American voters will decide a number of races on Tuesday, including the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, the closely-watched New York City mayoral election, and a number of high-profile ballot initiatives.
What’s happened so far
With the midterms more than a year out, November’s off-year election day poses the first major electoral test for Democrats and Republicans following the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January. Polling shows Democrats are favored to win the governors’ mansions in Virginia and New Jersey, while Zohran Mamdani is expected to land a headline win in New York City’s mayoral race. Redistricting efforts in California, seen as a response to Republican efforts in Texas, will be put to voters in Proposition 50, with polls showing a likely victory for proponents. A special election to fill the vacant Houston-area House seat may go to a runoff if none of the crowded field of 16 candidates wins a majority.
The impact
The bar has been set high for Democrats, who are expected to sweep all of the main races and ultimately retain the vacant Houston-area House seat. Polling in each race, while favoring them, stops short of showing landslide wins despite record presidential disapproval and a government shutdown. An easy set of wins could set the party up for the midterms, but surprise losses or close calls could incur more soul-searching.
Nov. 5 | U.S. Supreme Court hears case on tariffs
On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments relating to President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs.
What’s happened so far
Oral arguments will be held by the U.S. Supreme Court in a landmark case challenging Trump’s executive authority to impose sweeping unilateral control over the economy via the import duties that have been a hallmark of his second term. At the center of the constitutional debate regarding executive powers will be the application of the court’s “major questions doctrine” to the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act that the Trump administration has relied upon as the legal basis for the imposition of executive import duties.
The impact
The court as currently constituted applied the “major questions doctrine” multiple times to strike down or scale back much of President Joe Biden’s high-level agenda, such as student debt relief and the EPA’s power to address climate change, claiming there was no clear and direct congressional authorization to act. While Trump tariffs have been unilaterally imposed and carry substantial domestic economic impact, the court could find that the “major questions doctrine” doesn’t fully apply given the overlap with national security and foreign policy where the court has typically granted more executive leeway. Trump, for his part, has resorted to verbally pressuring the court to side with his administration and has even suggested he may attend the hearing, which would mark the first time a sitting president has done so.
What Else Matters
Hurricane Melissa
On Tuesday, Jamaica was hit with one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history. Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane at landfall with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 892 millibars, both tying records. The storm was able to become as strong as it was because of highly favorable conditions – namely its slow trek over the warm waters of the Caribbean as well as a lack of wind shear. Melissa brought death and destruction to Jamaica due to its storm surge, high winds and heavy rainfall totals. After passing over Jamaica, it weakened to a Category 3 but made landfall as a Category 4 in Cuba on Wednesday before heading to the Bahamas.
Watch for: How Jamaica and Cuba respond to the cleanup and fallout of Hurricane Melissa will be key. Natural disasters can spark civil unrest if needs are not met in the wake of destruction, while the other countries in the region will be tested on their own capacity to handle heavy rainfall and high winds from Melissa, especially Haiti. The storm may yet make a fourth landfall in Bermuda as it tracks to the northeast.
Cameroon protests
Cameroon’s incumbent President Paul Biya, the world’s oldest head of state, has won a controversial eighth term in office in the country’s Oct. 12 elections. Before the official announcement of the results, opposition leader and former Biya ally Tchiroma Bakary claimed he had won the election, which was disputed by the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM). The results triggered a series of nationwide protests that have been met with force by the security forces, with at least four people killed in demonstrations in the economic capital of Douala on Sunday and two more when Bakary accused the government of firing at protesters outside his residence in Garoua.
Watch for: The situation remains tense across the country, with residents saying many schools and shops have closed in Yaoundé as a result. With Bakary calling for his supporters to continue protesting and disputing the election results, analysts fear the country risks being plunged into political instability if the people feel the presidential election failed to represent their will.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 31-Nov. 7
Nov. 1
- U.S. tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks will go into effect
- Affordable Care Act enrollment period begins
Nov. 2
- Montreal mayoral election
- OPEC+ meeting
Nov. 3
- FIFA U-17 World Cup in Qatar
- Yukon elections
Nov. 4
- U.S. election day
- Canada introduces budget
Nov. 5
- U.S. Supreme Court hears case on Trump's tariffs
Nov. 6
- FDA convenes meeting of external digital health advisors
Nov. 8-14
Nov. 9
- China Eastern Airlines to resume flights as China, India restore air links
Nov. 10
- Egypt parliamentary election
- COP30 kicks off in Belem, Brazil
- ConocoPhillips to begin layoffs
Nov. 14
- Deadline for new prosecutor in Georgia election case
Nov. 15-21
Nov. 15
- Anticipated date for Haiti general elections
Nov. 16
- Chilean presidential and parliamentary elections
Nov. 18
- Egypt parliamentary elections results
Nov. 20
- Tonga elections
Nov. 21
- FIFA Futsal Women's World Cup in Pasig, Philippines
Nov. 22-28
Nov. 22
- G20 Summit in Johannesburg
Nov. 23
- Guinea-Bissau election
- Republika Srpska presidential election
Nov. 24
- Strike action against government reform plans in Belgium
Nov. 26
- EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
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Top photo: WIC participant hands staff their identification card in a WIC clinic in Mt. Pleasant, S.C. (Photo: USDAgov / Flickr)
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