Forecast: Clashes erupt between Armenia and Azerbaijan, EuroPride banned in Serbia, and Britain mourns Queen Elizabeth II

What’s happened so far 
Members will discuss how to implement measures agreed upon during the NATO summit held in Madrid in June, including a large increase in the number of troops deployed across Europe in case of Russian aggression toward NATO countries. For the very first time, Finland and Sweden will attend the conference as invitees, after formalizing their accession to the alliance, which is still being ratified by state members.

The impact 
Last week, Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, joined other Baltic countries with a decision to ban Russian citizens from entering. Discussion about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could be also on the table, though the alliance hasn’t officially put the matter on the agenda. The Baltic countries that share borders with Russia, however, have already raised concerns about the conflict’s consequences on their territories. 

What’s happened so far 
More than 18,000 members of the country’s armed forces will participate in the event at the center of Mexico City, where more than 15,000 civilians are expected to gather for the celebration. The city’s government began implementing enhanced security measures earlier this month in preparation, including banning fireworks and gunpowder on public transport and strictly monitoring transit stations. The state’s security office will deploy at least 1,455 police officers in the capital and additional resources like ambulances.

The impact 
Alcohol will be banned in least five local municipalities of Mexico City — Tláhuac, Xochimilco, Tlalpan, Iztapalapa and Cuajimalpa — starting Thursday night in an effort to minimize altercations during the festivities. Public transport will operate on a special schedule with travel impacts expected due to closures at some stations. Roads near the military parade will be closed for the duration of the event. Special security measures will also extend beyond the capital between Thursday and Friday amid nationwide celebrations. 

What’s happened so far 
Lebanon’s 2022 budget draft law was first passed on to the Council of Ministers in late January, which, among other repressive policies, called for the raising of exchange rates and hiking import trade fees. Analysts criticized it as being a “continuation of past policies with an inflation adjusted factor” as the country continues to feel the effects of its 2019 financial crisis that saw banks paralyzed and a debt of 150 percent of the national output. On Monday, Lebanon’s Central bank said it would stop providing dollars for gasoline imports, a move that is likely to put further pressure on the local value that continues to lose value.

The impact 
Lebanon’s government hopes to use its 2022 budget to alleviate the country’s mounting debt, estimate state expenditures and imports and also ensure it can fund sustainable development plans. With many of the country’s banks controlled by the political elite, it’s unlikely officials will amend the highly criticized budget law prescribing a multiple rate system, despite this being one of the requisites needed to unlock billions of dollars in foreign aid from the International Monetary Fund.

What’s happened so far 
Last month, President Aleksandar Vucic announced he would not permit the week-long EuroPride event to take place in Belgrade. He acknowledged it was a “violation of minority rights,” but cited several reasons for the decision, including border tensions with Kosovo and concerns about protests. Then last week, the country’s interior ministry banned both a EuroPride parade and a march by right-wing, anti-LGBT groups, citing the risk for violence. Serbia has held Pride events in recent years without incident, but some in the early 2000s faced violence from far-right nationalist groups. 

The impact 
If the EuroPride march and the anti-LGBT counter-protests move forward despite the ban, the risk of conflict will be high in Belgrade on Saturday, not only between EuroPride participants and counter-protesters, but also with law enforcement attempts to crack down on both movements. On Wednesday, Serbia’s Interior Ministry rejected an appeal by EuroPride organizers who argued the ban is unconstitutional.

What’s happened so far 
At the end of July, planned blackouts were announced for the month of August in Havana, and they continued into the first weeks of September. The pandemic’s heavy hit on tourism, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fatal fire in the Matanzas oil depot and debilitating U.S. sanctions have all deteriorated the situation. Protests against the blackouts erupted in various areas of the country, a continuation of the massive social unrest seen in 2021 in a large part due to frequent power outages. 

The impact 
Cuba’s economy has severely struggled due to worldwide trends and decades-long sanctions. That blackouts have had serious impacts on residents, particularly in the summer months with appliances unusable and food going to waste. Havana’s power grid is old and needs investment, and, with Venezuela stopping its oil supply to Cuba, it’s been difficult to maintain the current system. While planned blackouts are expected to stop, random power outages will continue to occur across the country until December at the earliest. It’s possible the frustrated population will continue to protest. 

What’s happened so far 
Following her death in Scotland, ceremonial processions and her lying in state at Westminster Hall have drawn hundreds of thousands of people, with lines at the public visitation in London stretching along the banks of the River Thames. According to the funeral plan, the lying in state is scheduled to end early Monday morning, hours before the funeral at Westminster Abbey. The service, scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. local time, is a short journey from Westminster Hall. After the proceedings, the queen’s coffin will be driven to Windsor Castle, west of London, for a service and committal in the royal chapel.

The impact 
The funeral is expected to pose unique challenges for London and the surrounding regions. Large crowds of up to a million people or more are expected to gather on the Mall outside Buckingham Palace and in royal parks to watch the funeral on large screens. Transport for London says services are expected to be busy and stations in central London may close. Numerous road closures are in effect across central London, especially in Westminster. The day of the funeral has been declared a public holiday, with many businesses choosing to close, and it will end the 10 days of national mourning following her death.

What’s happened so far 
The 77th U.N. General Assembly kicked off Tuesday. Every September, the organization meets to appoint the secretary-general on the recommendation of the Security Council, elect non-permanent members and approve the U.N. budget. Delegations from several countries are expected to attend though Biden and other officials were forced to adapt plans in order to attend the conference after the queen’s funeral.

The impact 
While some leaders have yet to confirm if they will be able to attend the assembly due to the funeral, Biden is expected to fly back in time in order to attend both events. Given this year’s theme of “transformative solutions to interlocking challenges,” Biden’s speech is expected to focus on the ongoing crises such as the energy shortage partly driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What’s happened so far 
When the buyback plan was first unveiled earlier this summer, some saw the effort as a way to counter speculation about a potential default, with the announcement sparking a double-digit jump in the price of the junk-rated securities. El Salvador has bet big on Bitcoin — establishing it as legal tender last September — but is down approximately 50 percent on its investments in the cryptocurrency. That move also put strain on the relationship between the country and the traditional credit market, as well as the International Monetary Fund.

The impact 
Despite skepticism from analysts, President Nayib Bukele said in July the country has the liquidity “not only to pay all of its commitments when they are due, but also purchase all of its own debt (till 2025) in advance.”

Sept. 15-23 

Sept. 15

• Party lists due in Israel’s Knesset
• Biden gun violence summit
• Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan hold talks
• Angolan president inauguration

Sept. 16

• NATO meeting in Estonia
• Possible U.S. rail strike

Sept. 17

• Munich Oktoberfest begins
• Detroit auto show begins
• EuroPride planned in Belgrade, Serbia
• Indian PM Modi to launch cheetah reintroduction project at Kuno National Park
• Plebiscite on splitting Maguindanao, Philippines

Sept. 18

• Overnight fast train service between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv to start

Sept. 19

• Queen Elizabeth’s funeral
• British port workers plan two-week strike
• NASA plans launch period for Artemis launch

Sept. 20

• Chad peace talks
• Massachusetts primaries
• U.S. Fed policy meeting
• President Biden expected to attend UNGA

Sept. 21

• Intergovernmental commission between Russia and the Republic of the Congo meets 
• Ottawa People’s Commission on the Convoy Occupation launches public hearings

Sept. 23

• Ontario school workers strike

Sept. 24-30 

Sept. 24

• UK Labour party conference
• Arizona abortion law enters effect

Sept. 25

• BMW Berlin Marathon
• Sao Tomean National Assembly Election
• Cuba family code referendum
• Italy elections

Sept. 26

• IAEA 66th General Conference
• Border between Colombia and Venezuela opens

Sept. 27

• Japan’s former Prime Minister Abe’s state funeral
• UN Security Council to meet on Afghanistan

Sept. 28

• President Biden hosts leaders of Pacific Island nations in Washington

Sept. 29

• Kuwait parliamentary elections
• Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health at the White House
• President of South Korea meets U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Seoul

Sept. 30

• EU plans summit on emergency energy plans

Oct. 1-7 

Oct. 1

• Latvia elections
• Kurdistan parliamentary elections

Oct. 2

• Brazil presidential election
• Bulgaria elections
• London Marathon
• Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Representatives election

Oct. 3

• Eurogroup meeting

Oct. 4

• UK’s National Grid emergency exercise

Oct. 5

• Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez meets German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Madrid

Oct. 6

• EU-Israel Association Council will resume negotiations after a decade
• Nobel Prize for Literature announced
• EU heads of state summit in Prague

Oct. 7

• Lesotho general elections

Oct. 8-14

Oct. 9

• Austrian presidential election

Oct. 11

• EU Informal meeting of energy ministers
• Alex Saab trial in Miami

Oct. 13

•  EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting