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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on Monday destroyed a large children’s hospital and left dozens of people killed with scores more injured. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the rare daytime strikes and Russia’s subsequent propaganda.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of July 12-19
A Look Ahead
July 14 – Olympic flame arrives in Paris
The Olympic flame will arrive in Paris on Sunday ahead of the start of the games at the end of the month.
What’s happened so far
The Olympic torch began its journey on April 16 after being lit in Greece’s Peloponnese Olympia ruins, the birthplace of the Olympic Games in the year 776 BC. The flame left Athens for Marseille on April 26 on board the French sailing ship Belem, built in the year of the first modern Games in 1896. The flame arrived in France on May 8.
The impact
The torch will complete a 3,100-mile relay before the start of the games on July 26. Before arriving in Paris, the torch will stop in 56 French territories. Torchbearers will pass by emblematic locations of the French capital on Sunday and Monday, such as the Champs-Elysées, the Luxembourg Gardens, the neighborhood of Montmartre and the Arc de Triomphe. Road closures and parking restrictions will be enforced starting July 13 in much of the city center.
What Factal will be watching for during Paris 2024
As with any major global event, Factal editors will be closely monitoring the potential for disruptions throughout the Games, amid concerns over everything from cyber attacks and terrorism to protests and extreme weather. Read more on our blog.
July 14 – Copa America finals
Argentina will face Colombia in the finals of the Pan American soccer tournament at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
While Copa America traditionally featured the 10 member countries of South America’s CONMEBOL soccer confederation, the tournament was expanded to include six North American teams in 2016. This year’s tournament featured matches at 14 stadiums across the United States, with the semifinals hosted in Charlotte and northern New Jersey.
The impact
With the 2026 World Cup set to take place in Canada, Mexico and the United States, this year’s Copa tournament served as a sort of trial run for North America. However, in-person attendance for the tournament has been lackluster, with many fans complaining about exorbitant ticket prices, and complaints about pitch conditions plagued the tournament. Argentina is currently ranked as the world’s No. 1 team and are favored to defeat the 12th ranked Colombia for a potential second straight Copa America.
July 14 – Euro 2024 final
Spain and England will square off Sunday at the Olympiastadion in Berlin to decide the UEFA Euro 2024 champion.
What’s happened so far
Spain has won all six of its matches during the tournament, going 3-0 in group play before knocking off Georgia, host Germany in extra time and France to reach the final. Meanwhile, England used a win over Serbia and draws against Denmark and Slovenia to reach the knockout round, before beating Slovakia in extra time, Switzerland on penalty kicks and the Netherlands to advance, now just one win away from bringing the title home.
The impact
Five people suffered minor injuries in Dortmund after England fans were attacked by Dutch supporters before the two sides met in the semi-finals on Wednesday, but German officials say they’ve been generally satisfied with their security preparations, deploying around 22,000 officers each day.
July 15 – Rwanda general elections
Rwanda’s presidential and parliamentary elections are set to take place on Monday amid concerns of repression against opposition and media.
What’s happened so far
President Paul Kagame has been in power since helping end the genocide that killed some 800,000 people in 1994. While the Central African nation has seen significant economic improvements under Kagame, his administration has been accused of human rights violations as well as unfair prosecution of opposition members and intimidation of activists.
The impact
The elections come amid rising tensions with neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, with Kagame being accused of backing rebel forces carrying out massacres that have resulted in displacement of tens of thousands of people in the eastern DRC. Kagame, however, is likely to earn a fourth term owing to the restrictive political environment.
July 15 – RNC begins
More than 50,000 people are expected to attend the Republican National Convention starting Monday in Milwaukee, where delegates will officially nominate former President Donald Trump as the party’s pick.
What’s happened so far
Trump is expected to announce his choice for vice president in the coming days, potentially during the convention itself, and will try to capitalize on the outsized media attention for a “convention bounce” in polls that already show him ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden in the key swing states expected to decide the election.
The impact
Local activists plan to march on Monday afternoon and estimate a crowd of around 5,000 demonstrators, but a district judge ruled this week that protesters cannot march through the security zone surrounding the Fiserv Forum. Meanwhile, area restaurants and venues have expressed disappointment that a promised financial windfall from the festivities does not seem to be materializing.
July 15 – 20th China’s Central Committee plenary session
After months of apparent delay, the Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee will hold its third plenum beginning Monday in a session expected to “deepen” reforms to the country.
What’s happened so far
While the meeting was expected to be held in October or November last year, Chinese authorities pushed the plenary session into this summer, marking the first time in more than three decades that it’s been held in an off-schedule year. The conclave gathers hundreds of government and academic leaders across China and typically focuses on economic issues. State media has reported the plenum will cover “comprehensively deepening reforms and pushing forward Chinese-style modernization.”
The impact
Investors, analysts and experts will be watching the plenum for signs of major economic policy shifts and reform, but details will likely be scarce as the meeting is largely held behind closed doors, followed by a communique.
July 15 – Syria parliamentary election
Syria’s presidency announced that the country will hold its parliamentary elections on Monday.
What’s happened so far
As Syria’s civil war continues well into its second decade, economic hardships have also deepened in the country, with the Syrian pound trading at 14,700 to the dollar compared to its 50:1 ratio in 2011. Voting will not include the more than 6 million Syrian refugees currently displaced outside of the country, nor will it take place in areas controlled by Kurdish groups whose elections commission postponed its planned rival municipal elections for rebel-held areas of the northeast until August. The government selected more than 8,100 election polling stations across areas controlled by government forces.
The impact
Analysts describe the 250-seat People’s Assembly as a “rubber-stamp legislature” controlled by the governing Baath party since the 1963 coup d’etat. Decades-long legislation has ensured two-thirds of seats are automatically allocated to the Baath party and its allied National Progressive Front. Although this year’s elections, like the ones held in 2020, are more about the consolidation of power than political revival, there is some speculation about a change within the Baath party with some younger players set to win seats. The primary job for the newly elected parliament, however, will be to amend the term limits within the constitution to allow President Bashar al-Assad to run again in 2028.
July 18 – Ukrainian government to start notifying citizens for conscription
Ukrainian authorities will start sending people eligible for military service notice by Thursday as part of a packet of measures adopted earlier this year aimed at ramping up mobilization in the war against Russia. Eligible citizens who do not update their military records by July 16 may face fines under the new measures.
What’s happened so far
Ukraine adopted a new mobilization law back in April after months of political debate and multiple revisions of the legislation. Changes aim to simplify the identification of conscripts nationwide, strengthen penalties for draft dodgers and keep track of eligible citizens residing abroad. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signed legislation that lowered the minimum age of compulsory military service from 27 to 25.
The impact
Ukraine’s latest push to boost mobilization and rotate exhausted troops on the frontline comes at a crucial time in the third year of Russia’s invasion. While Russia’s new offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region may have stagnated, Russian forces have intensified their efforts around the strategic town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region and recently claimed to have captured an outlying district of the town. The new measures will allow Ukraine to channel new troops to the front, but will also have a knock-on effect on the economy and infrastructure as more workers are sent to fight.
What Else Matters
Hurricane Beryl batters Texas
Cleanup continues after Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning. The storm caused at least nine deaths in the United States, most of them in and around Houston. Wind gusts over 90 mph toppled trees, which damaged homes and ripped down power lines. At least 2.7 million households lost power during the storm and some are still in the dark. CenterPoint Energy said it hoped to restore power to a million customers by Wednesday night.
Watch for: The widespread power outages created dangerous conditions for many Houston residents as the heat index topped 100 degrees. This is now the second weather event of 2024 to cause at least a million blackouts in Houston after May’s deadly derecho. If power restorations drag on amid sweltering heat, residents could start to question whether or not the utility companies will be prepared for a bigger storm with this “hyperactive” hurricane season just beginning.
Kyiv strikes
In one of the largest and deadliest missile barrages on Kyiv since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 29 people were killed and nearly 120 others injured in strikes across Ukraine’s capital last weekend. An additional 10 people were killed with nearly 50 others injured during the same barrage in strikes on the city of Kryvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In Kyiv, Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital was struck, destroying multiple wards and units and triggering international outcry. Russia confirmed the missile barrage, claiming it was in response to Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure, though it denied striking any civilian facilities.
Watch for: The strikes took place during daytime hours, an extremely rare occurrence over the past two years where large-scale strikes well beyond the frontlines of the south and east have almost exclusively occurred in the middle of the night. Given this, the Kremlin and Russian propagandists seized upon the vast amount of media of the strikes to erroneously claim the hospital was struck by western surface-to-air missiles. It is too soon to tell if daytime missile waves will become a trend, but regardless, bolstering Ukraine’s air defense systems and stockpiles will become a major focus for Ukraine’s western partners as Russian missile production levels continue to soar despite sanctions and export controls.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 12-19
July 14
- Arrival of the Olympic flame in Paris
- Copa América Final in Miami Gardens, Fla.
July 15
- Rwanda general elections
- Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
- 20th China’s Central Committee plenary session
- Syria parliamentary elections
July 16
- 2024 Major League Baseball All-Star Game
July 18
- Ukrainian government to start notifying citizens for conscription
July 20-26
July 20
- Colombia installs new National Congress
July 22
- Taiwan’s Han Kuang military live-fire exercise
July 24
- Israeli PM Netanyahu to address joint session of U.S. Congress
July 26
- 2024 Summer Olympics begin in Paris
July 27-Aug. 2
July 28
- Venezuela presidential elections
Aug. 1
- Iceland president takes office
Aug. 3-9
Aug. 4
- Sydney’s mega metro rail line opens under harbour
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Top photo: Former President Donald Trump speaks to attendees at The People’s Convention at Huntington Place in Detroit, Mich., in June 2024. (Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr)
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