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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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Law enforcement officials in Rhode Island continue to search for a gunman who opened fire at Brown University on Dec. 13, killing two people and injuring nine others. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Theresa Seiger discuss the challenges facing investigators and concerns over the dangers of doxxing after high profile events.
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Week of Dec. 19-26
A Look Ahead
Dec. 19 | Russian president’s annual year-end press conference
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host his end-of-year press conference on Friday.
What’s happened so far
Over the years, Putin has varied the style and length of his appearances, with some broadcasts running for several hours, as he sets forth his position on a range of issues. This year is expected to see the return of the same format as last year, known as Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin, a hybrid of a press conference involving journalists and a national call-in show where the public can submit questions. Kremlin watchers will note not just his mood and his answers, but the length of his appearance and whether it exceeds his 2024 effort of 4 hours and 26 minutes, which fell short of his 2013 all-time record of 4 hours and 47 minutes.
The impact
The multi-hour press conference is likely to span a range of topics, from the economy and domestic issues to Russia’s place in the world and the war in Ukraine. How Putin decides to answer when asked about the Special Military Operation, Kremlin parlance for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is likely to be the next opportunity to see Putin shape internal narratives on the war and his attitude toward progression of U.S.-backed peace talks.
Dec. 19 | Epstein files release deadline
The U.S. Justice Department has until Friday to release investigative documents pertaining to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, in compliance with the Epstein Files Transparency Act passed by Congress in November.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump signed the aforementioned bill on Nov. 19, starting a 30-day window for the files’ release. Trump’s ties to the convicted sex offender have drawn heavy scrutiny, while he has downplayed the impending disclosure as a “hoax [that] will backfire on the Democrats just as all of the rest have.” White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told Vanity Fair the president does appear in the files, but that, “he’s not in the file doing anything awful.”
The impact
It’s unclear what may be withheld from the release, with the bill allowing a carveout for information that, “would jeopardize an active federal investigation or ongoing federal prosecution.” If the DOJ misses the Friday deadline, Rep. Ro Khanna — one of the bill’s co-sponsors — warned of possible repercussions, including Congressional testimony or federal lawsuits.
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Dec. 21 | Africa Cup of Nations begins
Morocco will host the Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament, commonly known as AFCON, beginning Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Guinea was originally scheduled to host the tournament, but had those rights stripped over infrastructure concerns, with Morocco named the new host nation. A total of 24 national teams will take part, playing a total of 52 games over the next month.
The impact
Matches will take place in nine stadiums across six cities, with the Moroccan national team kicking off the tournament against Comoros at Rabat’s Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium on Sunday. Morocco is considered one of the favorites to win the title, hoping to take full advantage of playing on home soil, with a roster that includes 2025 African Footballer of the Year Achraf Hakimi, while seven-time AFCON champion Egypt also a contender.
Dec. 22 | ASEAN foreign ministers meeting on Thailand and Cambodia
Southeast Asia’s foreign ministers are scheduled to convene Monday in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, after a week-long postponement, for a special meeting on the recent flare-up in tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.
What’s happened so far
A new wave of conflict sparked at Thailand and Cambodia’s disputed border earlier this month, with both sides pointing fingers and blaming the other for initiating the clashes. The fighting broke a fragile ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Trump in October, and Thailand and Cambodia have been unable to reach a new consensus. Trump attempted to salvage the ceasefire, announcing that Thailand and Cambodia agreed “to cease all shooting,” but the conflict has continued without meaningful dialogue between the two countries.
The impact
The ASEAN meeting will be one of the first public forums for Thai and Cambodian officials to meet directly since the latest clashes erupted. More than two dozen people have been killed and more than half a million displaced along the disputed border. While flights between the countries remain operational, land border access remains highly restricted, and fear of the conflict has impacted winter tourism.
Dec. 23 | Deadline for French parliamentary 2026 budget work to conclude
France’s parliament needs to agree on a 2026 budget before the deadline on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
France’s parliament, made up of the upper Senate and lower National Assembly, will need to pass two separate budgets, the social security budget and state budget prior to Dec. 23 to allow the country’s Constitutional Court enough time to review the bills and allow President Emmanuel Macron to sign them before the new year. Budgetary work has proved extremely contentious, with France’s fourth prime minister in a little more than a year, Sébastien Lecornu, expending immense immense political capital and suspending Macron’s highly-controversial pension reform plan in order to stabilize the budget process and his government.
The impact
Lecornu’s compromise proved crucial, with Socialist Party members of the National Assembly, France’s more powerful lower house, backing the social security budget in a major hurdle for Lecornu. All eyes now turn to the state budget where the two houses of parliament remain split with the National Assembly and Senate passing differing versions. Lawmakers from both houses will convene in a joint committee session on Friday to iron out differences before a final lower house vote on Dec. 23 with failure to compromise threatening to further destabilize the political, financial and budgetary crises facing the European Union’s second-largest economy. Failure to agree on a state budget, which analysts predict will be more difficult to achieve than the social security budget, will lead to this year’s budget rolling over to next year with a worsening debt trajectory.
Dec. 23 | Bidding on Pakistan International Airlines
Pakistan will hold a live bidding to sell a 51 to 100 percent stake of its national carrier on Tuesday, where four groups have been qualified to participate.
What’s happened so far
The Pakistan government has been seeking to privatize state-run Pakistan International Airlines as part of the key conditions of the $7 billion IMF bailout. After being banned by the UK and the EU in 2020 over safety concerns, the PIA finally resumed its flights to the EU and Britain in January and October of this year. PIA also reported a pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025, with sources suggesting it was the airline’s first such profit since 2004.
The impact
The sale of PIA is expected to mark Pakistan’s first major privatization in nearly two decades and crucial to the structural reform under the IMF program. Aside from the national carrier, the Pakistani government has also been signaling the privatization of the country’s electricity distribution companies (DISCOs), of which the Expressions of Interest for investors are expected to be published in January.
What Else Matters
Brown University shooting
A gunman opened fire Saturday inside a classroom in the Barus & Holley building at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, killing two students and injuring nine other people. The shooting, which happened as exams were scheduled in the building, sparked an hours-long shelter-in-place for the campus area. Brown University officials said a suspect was in custody shortly after the shooting, although they later walked that statement back. On Sunday, a person of interest detained in the case was released after investigators determined he was not connected with the shooting.
Watch for: In the shooting’s aftermath, Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee ordered a review of school safety measures while several universities tightened their security protocols. Authorities continue to search for the person who opened fire on Saturday, with no suspect yet identified. New video released Tuesday showed a “person of interest” who investigators believe might have been casing the area before the shooting. Officials have also asked people in the neighborhood to check their surveillance cameras for possible footage of a suspect.
Deadly floods in Bolivia
At least 20 people have been killed and dozens more are missing in ongoing flooding triggered by the overflow of a river in Bolivia’s eastern Santa Cruz department. More than 2,000 people have been impacted by the flooding around the River Pirai, some of whom have been forced to take refuge on the roofs of their homes. A state of emergency has been imposed in the region and the death toll is expected to rise as rescue teams reach previously inaccessible areas. Outside of Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s weather agency issued a red alert in the northern department of Beni and an orange alert in 145 municipalities in La Paz, Cochabamba, Potosi and Pando.
Watch for: President Rodrigo Paz on Sunday warned of a “very complex” situation over the next couple of months due to heavy rains driven by the El Niño and La Niña climate patterns. He said during the first few days of this rainy season all the records for rainfall for the past hundred years had been broken. Paz added that the government is preparing to declare a state of emergency nationwide to better counter the impacts of further flooding during the rainy season.
Deadly shooting at Australia’s Bondi Beach
A shooting and attempted bombing on a celebration of the Jewish holiday Hanukkah at the immensely popular Bondi Beach in Sydney on Sunday left 15 civilians and one gunman dead. The father-and-son gunmen were known to authorities as harboring pro-Islamic State sentiments and reportedly trained as militants in the Philippines. The attack is the deadliest terror attack in Australian history and the second-deadliest shooting.
Watch for: Australia has been girded for an uptick in terror attacks since August 2024, when the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, largely because of Israel’s war in Gaza, raised the terror threat level to “probable” – level three on a five-step scale – indicating a “greater than fifty per cent chance” of an attack or planning therefore within 12 months. The Australian government response – which has included promises to tighten the country’s gun laws, already some of the world’s strictest; as well as pledges to strengthen laws against hate speech, including by preventing “people with antisemitic or racist views” from entering the country – has not provided any indication as to whether the terror threat level is under review or slated to be raised. The attack has also heightened the tenor of conversations about antisemitism in the country, with opposition leader Sussan Ley and President Anthony Albanese’s own antisemitism envoy Jillian Segal blaming the government for not doing enough to combat antisemitism. Inflamed passions, especially among the extreme right wing, may increase the likelihood of disruption or violence at pro-Palestinian or anti-immigration protests, where violent police repression has already occurred in recent months.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Dec. 19-26
Dec. 19
- Deadline for Jeffrey Epstein files to be released
- Russian President Putin’s annual major year-end press conference
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 22
- Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand
Dec. 23
- Bidding for Pakistan International Airlines (PIA)
- Deadline for French parliamentary 2026 budget work to conclude
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
Dec. 27-Jan. 2
Dec. 28
- Guinea presidential election
- Kosovo parliamentary elections
- Myanmar elections
- Central African Republic general elections
Dec. 31
- New Year’s Eve
Jan. 1
- Bulgaria expected to become 21st country to use euro
- New Year’s Day
Jan. 3-9
Jan. 4
- Critics Choice Awards 2026
Jan. 5
- Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns from Congress
Jan. 10-16
Jan. 12
- Uganda presidential election
Jan. 14
- U.S. Senate hearing on the impact of auto regulations and vehicle prices
Jan. 16
- South Korea court to rule on ousted President Yoon’s insurrection charges
- Japan’s PM Takaichi to meet Italian PM Meloni in Tokyo
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Top photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin, pictured above in 2019, is set to hold his annual end-of-year press conference on Friday. (Photo: Kremlin)
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