Factal
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Owen Bonertz discuss rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, plus more on an annual summit for India and Russia, legislative elections in Hong Kong, a social media ban for teens in Australia and a general strike in Portugal.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more.
These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, Vivian Wang, Hua Hsieh, Agnese Boffano and Jess Fino. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:46 Venezuela tensions rise as U.S. continues drug boat strikes – an interview with Factal editor Owen Bonertz
- 12:22 23rd India-Russia annual summit begins
- 13:08 Hong Kong legislative elections
- 14:51 Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
- 15:47 Portugal general strike
- 16:51 Credits
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Dec. 4, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, an annual summit for India and Russia, legislative elections in Hong Kong, a social media ban for teens in Australia and a general strike in Portugal.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Venezuela tensions rise as U.S. continues drug boat strikes
Interview featuring Owen Bonertz
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz.
JIMMY: Hello, Owen,
OWEN: Hey, Jimmy, how are you?
JIMMY: I’m great, and I’m glad you’re here. Always look forward to having you on the program with us. Looks like there’s been some action going on – these strikes on boats and off the coast of Venezuela and some rising tensions – and we’re hoping you can get us all caught up on that. So I guess, just to start, give us a bit of a recap on the situation.
OWEN: Yeah, so when Trump was elected in 2024 it wasn’t necessarily a surprise that he would be taking a more aggressive stance towards Venezuela. It’s certainly what he did during his first term, and despite the fact that he has talked a lot about wanting to be a peace candidate and a peacemaker around the world, he’s also invoked the idea of the Monroe Doctrine, kind of this American foreign policy guideline that says that the United States should be especially interventionist and especially involved in the western hemisphere. So in 2019, during his first term, the Trump administration was very, very involved behind the scenes in the, I guess, attempted coup, or the attempted power change surrounding Juan Guaido, who was elected as the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly. That sort of fizzled out after a couple years, and Juan Guaido is now living in exile. But this new round of American interventionism in Venezuela kind of started in August, when the Trump administration began deploying new naval warships to the Caribbean. Started with an amphibious assault boat, and has slowly increased with a number of smaller boats every few weeks. But most recently, in the end of November, the US has deployed the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford to the US Virgin Islands. And overall, between the aircraft carrier, the amphibious assault group, and everything else, there’s about an additional 15,000 American troops in the Caribbean. And of course, this is only one way that the US has ratcheted up tensions. There has been, up to this point, at least 21 strikes on small boats in the Caribbean, as well as the eastern Pacific that the US claims are transporting drugs. Of course, none of these boats have been interdicted and proven to have been smuggling drugs. There has been some reporting on the ground of people going to Venezuela and speaking to villagers from the towns where the people who died on these boats come from, and many of them do confirm [that] yes, the people on the boats were moving drugs, but they weren’t necessarily high-level cartel members or high-level drug traffickers. These are, kind of, people who are low on the pecking order of organized crime just trying to get a few dollars by moving, typically, cocaine from Venezuela or Colombia to a nearby Caribbean island on a boat. And so far, 83 people have died in those strikes, which is obviously something Venezuela is not very happy about, nor Colombia. And both of these things combined kind of indicate to us that the US is really trying to put the screws on the Maduro administration in Venezuela and potentially initiate a regime change or even a bombing campaign in the new year.
JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments recently?
OWEN: So, the probably two biggest things that have brought this back into the conversation, because the strikes on the drug boats have been going on since the beginning of September, is one: Trump posting on his Truth Social platform that the airspace over Venezuela is “closed.” This didn’t really come with any sort of formal policy change. The FAA, several weeks ago, already warned people against flying over Venezuela, but just rhetorically, it triggered a lot of changes. Some of the biggest international airlines that were flying into Venezuela, namely, Iberia, Turkish Airlines, Gol, have all stopped flying into Venezuela as a response to this, and Venezuela themselves have also retaliated by sanctioning these airlines that have stopped their flights. So there was that statement where he very publicly said, you know, we’re shutting down the airspace in Venezuela. And then also yesterday, he explicitly stated that the US is interested in striking targets affiliated with drug trafficking on the ground in Venezuela. That’s the first time he said that out loud, even though it was maybe kind of assumed up till this point. But that marks a major escalation, and, like I said, has really brought the prospect of a war in Venezuela back to the forefront.
JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this?
OWEN: Well, so there, there have definitely been some degree of negotiations between Venezuela and the United States since these tensions started. Venezuela briefly stopped the arrival of repatriation flights – like of Venezuelan nationals who were deported from the United States back to Venezuela. Venezuela cut these off for a couple of weeks, but now they have resumed, likely as a concession to the Trump administration. I would also think that there’s a lot of negotiation going on behind the scenes about Venezuela’s oil industry. Venezuela is the biggest exporter of oil in Latin America, it’s something like two thirds of their entire GDP. And at the moment, the only American firm that can sell Venezuelan oil is Chevron, and even this was shut down for about three months over the summer, before the Trump administration gave them permission to start doing it again. So I think any sort of negotiations – and really what is motivating the American policy in general, and has motivated American policy since the 1990s when, when Hugo Chavez came in and nationalized a lot of oil infrastructure – is trying to regain access to that market, so that American refineries can start refining Venezuelan oil, as opposed to having to rely on the Middle East halfway across the world. As far as other nations reacting to the situation, Colombia, headed by Gustavo Petro, who has generally been very, very critical of Trump, but has especially been critical this time, in part because there are Colombian nationals who have died in the strikes on the drug boats. And he is probably rightfully concerned that any sort of American drone strike or missile strike on Venezuelan territory could also cross into Colombian territory and attack maybe organizations like ELN, who the Trump administration claims are kind of directly connected to the leadership of the Venezuelan military. And so if you were to ask the the Trump administration, Venezuela is contributing directly to America’s drug crisis by taking cocaine that is produced in Colombia, and then it goes to ELN in Colombia, and then it crosses the border and goes to the high brass of the Venezuelan military, which the Americans call the Cartel of the Suns, and then from there, gets smuggled into the United States, which has certainly proved to be true in some instances. There have been members of the Venezuelan military that have been arrested and sanctioned for their involvement in drug trafficking. But I think it’s especially interesting that the vast majority of the drug overdose deaths in the United States that are often invoked by the Trump administration to justify this. The other day, Trump said something along the lines of each drug boat blown up in the Caribbean is saving 25,000 lives. Well, that would be true if these boats were transporting fentanyl or any other sort of a, you know, strong opiate that is responsible for the majority of the drug deaths in the United States, but the fentanyl supply chain really completely skips Venezuela. And what we’re talking about is cocaine trafficking, which, of course, is an issue, but is not the one that the Trump administration is repeatedly invoking to justify all this.
JIMMY: Well, I know it’s a hard question, but considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?
OWEN: Well, I think two other things I would like to watch, as far as you know, international reactions to the whole situation would be, see how Brazil responds to things. Brazil, likewise, currently has a left-wing government and a very, very long border with Venezuela. I think if they sort of came out rhetorically in support of Venezuela, it could change the United States’s response. I think the, particularly the border situation along all of Venezuela’s borders, one with Guyana, who they have a territorial dispute with, and Guyana has become kind of a very important American ally in the region. And then also with Colombia, where, you know, the Americans have deployed 15,000 troops to the Caribbean Sea, the Venezuelans, who have a very big military, have deployed 15,000 troops to the Colombian border. So any sort of big change in the situation along Colombia’s border is worth watching as kind of a precursor for something big to happen. I think most people are of the opinion that an American ground invasion in Venezuela is really out of the realm of possibility. However, a drone strike doesn’t seem outside of the realm of possibility. Additionally, the US has kind of released a trial balloon to the American media a couple weeks ago, where they said, in a rare instance of doing this, that they admitted that the CIA is operating on Venezuelan territory. So that could manifest in a couple ways. I think another one of the the more likely outcomes is kind of the US, through their intelligence services backing some sort of internal power change, like what we saw in 2019 or like what we saw in 2002 when the United States backed an attempted coup against Hugo Chavez. I think there’s already a very prominent opposition figure in Venezuela. Her name is Maria Corina Machado. She’s actually the most recent Nobel Peace Prize winner, and she has very close ties to the Trump administration. I could certainly see some sort of situation behind the scenes that allows her to get in power. So any sort of attempted coup or, in response to that, perhaps the Maduro government arresting her would really shake up the situation. So something to keep an eye out for there, in addition to, of course, more troop deployments to the Caribbean and more strikes on drug boats. I don’t imagine those are going to stop anytime soon.
JIMMY: Well, Owen as usual, we’ll pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for getting us all caught up to speed. Appreciate it
OWEN: Anytime, Jimmy.
23rd India-Russia annual summit begins
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi tomorrow. They’re meeting for the two countries’ annual talks.
This is Putin’s first visit since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, Western sanctions over the war are sure to be top of mind on the summit agenda, especially as India faces tariffs from the United States over its purchases of Russian oil.
Now, Modi and Putin are also expected to discuss boosting energy, defense and trade ties between their countries.
Analysts anticipate that the outcomes of this visit may provide important signals about India and Russia’s priorities amid shifting dynamics in international relations.
Hong Kong legislative elections
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Elections for Hong Kong’s “patriots-only” legislative body will go ahead on Sunday.
There had been speculation they’d be delayed in the wake of the massive blaze that killed more than 150 people.
The vote follows a Beijing-led revamp of Hong Kong’s electoral system in the aftermath of 2019’s anti-government protests.
Lawmakers will now be elected through three different methods.
Out of a total of 90 representatives, 40 are appointed by the Election Committee, 30 are elected by the functional constituencies, and the other 20 are directly elected by geographical constituencies.
According to the election commissions’s data, a total of 161 candidates will be running in the race this year.
Under the new election law, security officials have the power to screen and disqualify candidates that fail to meet the criteria of “patriotism.”
While the changes have attracted criticism for reducing democratic representation, authorities say the move ensured stability and prosperity.
Now, Hong Kong’s first election following the overhaul of the electoral system and the new national security law saw a record low voter turnout of just 30%.
City authorities have been rallying for better voter participation this time around.
Still, in November, several people were charged over social media posts calling for a boycott of the votes.
Finally, despite speculations of potentially postponing the polls, Chief Executive John Lee said that the elections will be held according to schedule and that having new lawmakers take office will speed up aid and rebuilding after that deadly fire.
Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
Information compiled by Agnese Boffano
JIMMY: Australia is set to ban all social media platforms for children aged under 16 starting Wednesday.
The ban is set to impact platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, YouTube and X.
Of course, the list is not exhaustive, and the government has said it could continue adding sites to the roster if it raises concerns.
Educational platforms like Google Classrooms, work sites such as LinkedIn, and AI platforms like ChatGPT are excluded from the ban.
Now, the Australian government argues that the ban on social media aims to keep children safe from cyber bullying, harmful content and online predators.
The verification process will vary depending on the platform, but organizations run the risk of penalties if they fail to adhere to this new regulation. They could see fines equal to about $33 million US dollars.
Portugal general strike
Information compiled by Jess Fino
JIMMY: The two main Portuguese trade unions called a general strike action for next Thursday.
It’s the first nationwide strike in over a decade and comes amid the government’s plan to introduce significant labor law reforms.
The last nationwide strike action took place in 2013, when Portugal was forced to ask for urgent financial support amid an economic crisis.
Creditors intervened and a series of austerity measures were introduced.
This new call for action comes as the recently-elected government led by Democratic Alliance’s Luis Montenegro proposed several changes to the labor law, namely dysregulation of working hours, fewer rights to working parents and limitations on the right to strike.
Now, so far, workers across several crucial sectors – including in banking, education, and health – have signaled they will take part in the general strike.
More recently, airline cabin crew staff announced plans to join the strike, which could severely impact flights during the busy holiday period.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Hua Hsieh, Agnese Boffano and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top Photo: A U.S. Marine with provides aerial sniper support from a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter during insertion training aboard USS San Antonio (LPD 17) in the Caribbean Sea on Nov. 25 while U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of Operation Southern Spear. (Photo: U.S. Souther Command / X)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.