Factal
manhunt, plus more on Russian President Putin’s annual press conference, a meeting on the Thai-Cambodia border conflict, an important deadline for the French parliament, and Pakistan selling a majority of its national airline.
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These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, David Wyllie, Vivian Wang, Alex Moore and Hua Hsieh. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:47 Brown University shooting – an interview with Factal editor Theresa Seiger
- 5:29 Russian president’s annual year-end press conference
- 6:29 ASEAN foreign ministers meeting on Thailand and Cambodia
- 7:38 Deadline for French parliamentary 2026 budget work to conclude
- 9:06 Bidding on Pakistan International Airlines
- 10:16 Credits
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Dec. 18, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got the Brown University shooting, Russian President Putin’s annual press conference, a meeting on the Thai-Cambodia border conflict, an important deadline for the French parliament, and Pakistan selling a majority of its national airline.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Brown University shooting
Interview featuring Theresa Seiger
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the mass shooting at Brown University. For more on that I’ve got fellow editor Theresa Seiger.
JIMMY: Hello, Theresa,
THERESA: Hi, Jimmy, how you doing?
JIMMY: I’m well, and I’m glad you’re here.
THERESA: Thank you.
JIMMY: We’ve got quite a concerning situation here with the shooting at Brown University, and I’m hoping you can get us all up to speed. So you know, to start, can you just give us a bit of a recap on what’s happened?
THERESA: Well, on Saturday, a gunman shot 10 people during a study session in a classroom inside the Barus and Holley Building at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. This happened as finals were going on in the building. Two students were killed and nine other people were injured, including a person who was hurt by shrapnel. The shooter was initially described by police as just a man dressed in black. He’s believed to have left the building through a door that led to a street on the border of the campus with the residential area there. As the search for him got going, officials ordered people to shelter in place at the university and in the surrounding area. That order was in place for several hours as they looked for a shooter. Initially, there was some confusion about whether authorities had a suspect in custody. Brown University said early on that they had a suspect, though they later had to walk that statement back. President Donald Trump also shared on social media that someone had been arrested, but he also walked that statement back, pointing to what Brown said. Authorities said at a press conference that they had someone in custody shortly after the shooting, but that person was cleared after questioning. On Sunday, a person of interest wanted as part of the investigation was detained for questioning, and there was a lot of speculation that this could be the suspect, but that person was also subsequently released after authorities found that they had no connection to the incident.
JIMMY: And what about the latest, [have] there been any new developments?
THERESA: Well, Brown University identified the slain students as a sophomore and a freshman. The sophomore, Ella Cook, was vice president of the Republican club of Brown University, and there was some speculation that she might have been targeted in the shooting, but the police chief said Tuesday that they had no evidence of that. Authorities are still looking for the person who opened fire on Saturday, though they don’t have a suspect identified as I mentioned. The FBI is offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the perpetrator. Right now, police are looking for what they’re calling another person of interest in the case, who they say may have been casing the area before the shooting. Investigators released enhanced video showing the person’s movements in the area on Tuesday, and also released a map on Wednesday showing the area where the person was seen on the day of the incident. He’s described as a 5’8” man with a stocky build. Officials have also shared a photo of another person who is seen in the proximity of the person of interest, in hopes that this second person may be able to identify them.
JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to all this have you seen?
THERESA: Well, there’s been frustration in the community over the fact that Brown University has something like 1,200 cameras, but they didn’t appear to have gotten a good image of the shooter. Authorities have said there were few cameras in the building where the shooting took place, which the state attorney general described as an old building attached to a new one. Officials have also said that most of the surveillance footage they have shows students running away from the gunfire and doesn’t actually show the gunman more clearly. They’ve asked for people to comb through their own home surveillance cameras in hopes of finding more useful video. At the same time, this lack of an identified suspect has fueled conspiracy theories and speculation online. On Tuesday, Brown University actually sent out a statement to media outlets warning against doxxing, saying that if a person’s name is relevant to the investigation, authorities would be looking for them, publicly talking about them, and they warn that doxxing could put people in danger.
JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?
THERESA: The main thing next to watch for is for this person of interest to be identified. Once that person is identified, then police can determine whether or not this person has anything to do with the shooting, or whether they’re actually worth investigating further. We really don’t know much about what led to the shooting or what prompted it, and that’s not information that we can even get until we know who is behind the situation.
JIMMY: Well, Theresa, that’s where we’ll pause for today, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on things for us. Appreciate you.
THERESA: Thank you so much, Jimmy.
Russian president’s annual year-end press conference
Information compiled by David Wyllie
JIMMY: Russian President Vladimir Putin will host his end-of-year press conference tomorrow.
Over the years, Putin has varied the style and length of his appearances, with some broadcasts running for several hours, as he sets forth his position on a range of issues.
This year’s is expected to be the same format as last year, which was a hybrid of a press conference involving journalists and a national call-in show where the public can submit questions.
Kremlin watchers will note not just his mood and his answers, but the length of his appearance and if it exceeds last year’s 4 hours and 26 minutes.
Now, the multi-hour press conference is likely to span a range of topics, from the economy and domestic issues to Russia’s place in the world and the war in Ukraine.
How Putin decides to answer when asked about the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is likely to be the next opportunity to see Putin shape internal narratives on the war and his attitude toward progression of U.S.-backed peace talks.
ASEAN foreign ministers meeting on Thailand and Cambodia
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: Southeast Asia’s foreign ministers are scheduled to convene next Monday in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
They’re gathering for a special meeting on the recent flare-up in tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.
A new wave of conflict sparked at Thailand and Cambodia’s disputed border earlier this month, with both sides pointing fingers and blaming the other for initiating the clashes.
The fighting broke a fragile ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Trump in October, and Thailand and Cambodia have been unable to reach a new consensus.
Trump attempted to salvage the ceasefire, announcing that Thailand and Cambodia agreed “to cease all shooting,” but the conflict has continued without meaningful dialogue between the two countries
Now, the ASEAN meeting will be one of the first public forums for Thai and Cambodian officials to meet directly since the latest clashes erupted.
More than two dozen people have been killed and more than half a million displaced along the disputed border.
And while flights between the countries remain operational, land border access remains highly restricted, and fear of the conflict has impacted winter tourism.
Deadline for French parliamentary 2026 budget work to conclude
Information compiled by Alex Moore
JIMMY: France’s parliament needs to agree on a 2026 budget before a deadline on Tuesday.
The parliament, made up of the upper Senate and lower National Assembly, will need to pass two separate budgets, the social security budget and state budget prior to Dec. 23.
That, in order to give the country’s Constitutional Court enough time to review the bills and allow President Emmanuel Macron to sign them before the new year.
Budgetary work has proved extremely contentious, however, and the country is on its fourth prime minister in a little more than a year.
Current Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has expended immense political capital, suspending Macron’s highly-controversial pension reform plan in order to stabilize the budget process and his government.
Now, Lecornu’s compromise proved crucial, with Socialist Party members of the National Assembly backing the social security budget in a major hurdle for Lecornu.
All eyes now turn to the state budget where the two houses of parliament remain split with the National Assembly and Senate passing differing versions.
Failure to agree on a state budget, which analysts predict will be more difficult to achieve than the social security budget, would lead to this year’s budget rolling over to next year with a worsening debt trajectory.
Lawmakers from both houses will convene in a joint committee session tomorrow to iron out differences before a final vote on Dec. 23
Bidding on Pakistan International Airlines
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Pakistan will hold a live bidding to sell a majority stake of its national carrier on Tuesday.
Four groups have been qualified to participate.
The country’s government has been seeking to privatize state-run Pakistan International Airlines as part of the key conditions of the $7 billion IMF bailout.
After being banned by the UK and the EU in 2020 over safety concerns, the airline finally resumed its flights to the EU and Britain in January and October this year.
The airline also reported a pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025, with sources suggesting it was the airline’s first such profit since 2004.
Now, the sale of Pakistan International Airlines is expected to mark Pakistan’s first major privatization in nearly two decades and crucial to the structural reform under the IMF program.
Aside from the national carrier, the Pakistani government has also been signalling the privatization of the country’s electricity distribution companies, of which the Expressions of Interest for investors are expected to be published in January.
JIMMY: One final note for you, with the holiday and New Year coming up, the podcast will be off for a couple of weeks. So our next episode will be out January 8th.
In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Bluesky, Threads or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Vivian Wang, Alex Moore and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Theresa Seiger and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Police in Providence, Rhode Island, released new video footage Monday showing the movements of a person of interest wanted in connection with Saturday’s shooting at Brown University. (Photo: Providence Police)
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