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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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The United States’ ongoing tensions with Venezuela ratcheted up a notch Tuesday when President Trump said U.S. attacks on drug traffickers could begin on land “very soon.” In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss reactions to the situation and the wider context of the conflict
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Week of Dec. 5-12
A Look Ahead
Dec. 5 World Cup 2026 draw and FIFA Peace Prize awarded
The draw for next summer’s FIFA World Cup will take place at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., on Friday.
What’s happened so far
The 2026 World Cup is set to be the biggest to date, with an expanded field featuring 48 nations. Thus far, 42 national teams have secured their spots in the tournament, with the remaining six to be filled via upcoming UEFA play-off matches. The new “FIFA Peace Prize” was introduced to recognize exceptional actions for peace and unity’ around the world.
The impact
FIFA President Gianni Infantino has described U.S. President Donald Trump, who is widely expected to be named the prize’s first recipient, as a “really close friend.” The new award was announced just weeks after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize, and some have dubbed the award soccer’s version of the honor. Trump and Infantino recently sparked controversy when Infantino agreed that he would change the venue of matches at Trump’s request, if the cities are deemed to be “unsafe.”
Dec. 5 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit begins
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi for the two countries’ annual talks on Friday, though Putin is set to arrive a day earlier ahead of the summit.
What’s happened so far
Putin’s visit will be his first since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Western sanctions over the war are sure to be top of mind on the summit agenda, especially as India faces tariffs from the United States over its purchases of Russian oil.
The impact
Modi and Putin are expected to discuss boosting energy, defense and trade ties between their countries. Analysts anticipate that the outcomes of this visit may provide important signals about India and Russia’s priorities amid shifting dynamics in international relations.
Dec. 6 Doha Forum 2025 convenes in Qatar
More than 5,000 participants from over 160 countries are set to convene for the Doha Forum 2025 in Qatar starting Saturday.
What’s happened so
The theme for this year’s forum is “Justice in Action: Beyond Promises to Progress” and will include talks on peace, security, economic resilience, and the future of global governance. The forum will also feature several high-profile speakers, including heads of state like Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abduldahaman Al Thani, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and many more.
The impact
The discussions are expected to spotlight widening inequalities, shifting power balances, and the need for more inclusive global governance. With major powers and emerging states represented, analysts say the forum may offer rare opportunities for back-channel diplomacy on current crises and signal how countries intend to navigate an increasingly technologically disruptive world.
Dec. 7 Hong Kong legislative elections
Elections for Hong Kong’s “patriots-only” legislative body will go ahead on Sunday amidst speculation of delay in wake of the fatal Tai Po fire.
What’s happened so far
Following a Beijing-led revamp of Hong Kong’s electoral system in the aftermath of 2019’s anti-government protests, lawmakers will now be elected through three different methods. Out of a total of 90 representatives, 40 are appointed by the Election Committee, 30 are elected by the functional constituencies, and the other 20 are directly elected by geographical constituencies. According to the election commission’s data, a total of 161 candidates will be running this year. Under the new election law, security officials have the power to screen and disqualify candidates that fail to meet the criteria of “patriotism.” While the changes have attracted criticism for reducing democratic representation, authorities say the move ensured stability and prosperity.
The impact
Hong Kong saw a record low voter turnout of 30.2 percent in its first election following the overhaul of the electoral system and imposition of the national security law, and the city’s authorities have been rallying for better voter participation this time around. Earlier in November, several people were charged over social media posts calling for a boycott of the votes. Despite speculations of potentially postponement of the polls, Chief Executive John Lee said that the elections will be held according to schedule and that having new lawmakers take office quickly will speed up aid and rebuilding after the deadly fire.
Dec. 10 Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
Australia is set to ban all social media platforms for children aged under 16 starting next Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The ban is set to impact platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, YouTube and X. The list is not exhaustive, and the government has said it could continue adding sites to the list if it raises concerns. Educational platforms like Google Classrooms, work sites such as LinkedIn, and AI platforms like ChatGPT are excluded from the ban.
The impact
The Australian government argues that the ban on social media aims to keep children safe from cyber bullying, harmful content and online predators. The verification process will vary depending on the platform, but organizations run the risk of fines of up to AUD $50 million if they fail to adhere to this new regulation.
Dec. 11 Portugal general strike
The two main Portuguese trade unions called a general strike action for Thursday, the first nationwide strike in over a decade, in response to the government's plan to introduce significant labor law reforms.
What's happened so far
The last nationwide strike action took place in 2013, when Portugal was forced to ask for urgent financial support amid an economic crisis and creditors intervened, introducing a series of austerity measures. The new call for action comes as the recently-elected government led by Democratic Alliance’s Luis Montenegro proposed several changes to the labor law, namely dysregulation of working hours, fewer rights to working parents and limitations on the right to strike.
The impact
So far, workers across several crucial sectors – including banking, education, aviation and health – have signaled they will take part in the general strike, which will cause the country to come to a virtual standstill. More recently, cabin crew staff announced plans to join the strike, which could severely impact flights during the busy holiday period. People are expected to mobilize across the country, which will cause travel disruption but also suspend services such as surgeries, court cases and classes.
What Else Matters
Venezuela tensions rise as U.S. continues drug boat strikes
U.S. President Donald Trump declared an informal closure of Venezuela’s airspace on Saturday as his administration escalates its relationship with Venezuela’s socialist regime. While Trump’s Truth Social post was not backed by a major change in policy, local aviators took notice. A handful of foreign airlines, including Turkish Airlines and Iberia, have suspended their flights to Venezuela. The Americans have deployed additional troops to the Caribbean since August, raising suspicions of a U.S.-led invasion and regime change in Venezuela. Since the beginning of September, American military forces have been airstriking small suspected drug trafficking boats off Venezuela’s northern coast, alleging that these vessels belong to Tren de Aragua or the so-called Carteles del Sol. The desire to stop drug trafficking has been core to Trump’s rhetorical justification for an invasion.
Watch for: Venezuela has agreed to resume repatriation flights of Venezuelan nationals who are deported from the United States. The U.S. will also attempt to extract concessions from Venezuela’s massive oil industry, which is largely divorced from the U.S. market. In the previous Trump administration, the United States supported an internal coup attempt in Venezuela led by opposition leader Juan Guaido. This year, the U.S. has thrown its support behind another Venezuelan opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado. The most obvious escalation in the conflict would begin with U.S. airstrikes on Venezuelan ground targets, which the United States will claim are targeting cartel sites. If this comes to pass, it would represent the most intense escalation of the United States’ more-than-20 year project to remove the Chavista socialist regime in Venezuela.
Guinea-Bissau coup
Armed forces in the West African country of Guinea-Bissau announced on Nov. 26 they had taken over control of the country to “restore order” just three days after a controversial presidential vote took place, in which both main candidates claimed victory. The military coup leaders announced the vote would be suspended, closed all borders and imposed a nighttime curfew. Days later, a delegation from West Africa’s ECOWAS visited the country to meet with the military leadership, which banned protests and strikes ahead of the visit.
Watch for: The first talks with the ECOWAS delegation failed to make any breakthrough, but Guinea-Bissau’s new foreign minister João Bernardo Vieira said more discussions would be held on Dec. 14. Ousted president Umaro Sissoco Embaló has reportedly fled to Republic of Congo’s capital Brazzaville after being detained by the military. Meanwhile, Nigeria has granted asylum to presidential candidate Fernando Dias. It is unclear who would now fill the void were the country to return to civilian rule.
Ukraine negotiations and Russia’s frontline breakthrough
The head of Russia’s armed forces on Monday reported the capture of the strategically-important, frontline city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The claimed territorial gain was broadcast through Russian state media and was accompanied by other claims, including the conquest of the border city of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine has not confirmed Pokrovsk has fallen to the Russians, calling the claim “propaganda,” but a defense-linked war monitor does show a recent advance by Russian forces in the city. The Institute for the Study of War still maintains that Ukraine retains control of northern areas of Pokrovsk.
Watch for: If confirmed, the loss of Pokrovsk would strike a significant blow to Ukrainian lines of defense as it would provide Russia with a strategic platform to advance north and western, further endangering Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk region. The Russian military has been accused by military bloggers of exaggerating its territorial gains – the most recent being the city of Kupyansk in Kharkiv region, which Russia claimed to have captured on Nov. 20. Since then, Ukraine said they have almost completely driven Russian forces out of the city. Russia’s latest claims came ahead of a visit by U.S. Envoy Witkoff to Moscow to discuss the U.S.-brokered peace plan and are likely part of a propaganda push to justify territorial concessions from Ukraine.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Dec. 5-12
Dec. 5
- India-Russia Annual Summit
- World Cup draw in Washington, D.C.
Dec. 6
- Doha Forum
Dec. 7
- Hong Kong legislative elections
Dec. 9
- SEA Games in Thailand
Dec. 10
- Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
Dec. 11
- Portugal general strike
Dec. 13-19
Dec. 13
- Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Tbilisi, Georgia
Dec. 14
- Chile presidential runoff
- ECOWAS extraordinary meeting on Guinea-Bissau
Dec. 15
- U.S. Coast Guard to classify swastika, nooses and the Confederate flag as“potentially divisive”
Dec. 16
- Trial against men accused of starting the Palisades Fire
Dec. 17
- Runoff of second phase of Egypt's parliamentary elections
Dec. 20-26
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 27-Jan. 2
Dec. 28
- Guinea presidential election
- Kosovo parliamentary elections
- Myanmar elections
- Central African Republic general elections
Jan. 1
- Bulgaria expected to become 21st country to use euro
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Top Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump, pictured at the 2025 Club World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, with FIFA President Gianni Infantino, is widely believed to be the first recipient of the FIFA Peace Prize. (Photo by White House)
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