Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Madagascar’s army seized power this week following weeks of anti-government protests. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss what sparked the so-called Gen Z protests as well as the international reactions to the undemocratic transfer of power.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of October 17 – 24
A Look Ahead
Oct. 18 ‘No Kings’ protests
Organizers will hold a second round of “No Kings” protests across the United States on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
The forthcoming set of nationwide protests against U.S. President Donald Trump will take place this weekend for the second time after the movement organized demonstrations across more than 2,000 cities in June against what protesters say is democratic backsliding spearheaded by the Trump administration. This weekend’s round of demonstrations are expected to match the ones in June in both size and scope with protests expected in most major cities in addition to a large one planned in front of the U.S. Capitol.
The impact
The planned Capitol building protest marks a divergence from June’s round of “No Kings” demonstrations which consciously avoided Washington, D.C.. Trump’s allies have been quick to vocally slam the organized protests, with House Speaker Mike Johnson describing them as being “pro-Hamas” and “Antifa people” despite the first round being overwhelmingly peaceful.
Oct. 19 Bolivian presidential election runoff
Bolivians will go to the polls Sunday to elect a new president in a runoff election that will end 20 years of left-wing governments in the country.
What’s happened so far
Jorge Quiroga and Rodrigo Paz, a former president and a former senator, secured 26.94 percent and 32.08 percent of votes respectively in the first round of the election, while ruling MAS — the party founded by former President Evo Morales — was relegated to a sixth position with a historical low of 3.14 percent of ballots. The first round results reflect a general disenchantment with the left after two decades of consecutive MAS governments, not including Jeanine Añez’s brief interim presidency after Morales resigned and fled the country in 2019 amid civil unrest (members link) following reports of election rigging. Outgoing President Luis Arce’s MAS government has faced years of internal divisions and party disputes in the context of a deep economic crisis.
The impact
Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party is a center-right senator and son of former Bolivian President Jaime Paz Zamora. He has based his campaign on three main points, including a decentralization program that would see the country’s departments obtain greater financial autonomy from the central state, a promise of accessible credit and relaxation of tax rules, and justice reform to tackle corruption. Conservative Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Libre party could come back to the presidency 24 years after becoming one the country’s youngest leaders. His campaign has centered around liberal economic policies including the defunding of the state, an institutional reform to guarantee the independence of the judiciary and digitalization initiatives. The next president will face an inter-annual inflation nearing 25 percent, fuel scarcity and a weakening local currency.
Oct. 20 China’s Central Committee to hold fourth plenary session
The Chinese Communist Party’s top decision-making body will meet beginning Monday to discuss the country’s development plan over the next five years.
What’s happened so far
China’s Communist Party meets every five years to determine the make-up of its central committee, where members make decisions on a broad range of social, political and economic issues and policies in seven meetings across a five-year term. The 20th Central Committee is set to convene its fourth plenary session in Beijing, with the country’s 2026-2030 plan on the top of the agenda. This meeting came against the backdrop of China’s persistent property slump, deflation, slowing growth, and Beijing’s prolonged trade war with the United States.
The impact
The new five-year plan attracts the attention of not only the domestic audience, but also investors and international leaders, as Beijing’s policy will have repercussions across the world. Aside from the economic challenges, analysts will also be closely monitoring potential reshuffles of the party’s senior leadership.
Oct. 20 Australian PM visits the White House
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, their first meeting since Trump’s second term in office.
What’s happened so far
Albanese announced earlier this month that he had received a “quite lovely letter” from Trump inviting him to attend the White House, while reaffirming the United States was Australia’s “most important ally.” However, the meeting will come after the United States introduced tariffs on Australia and asked the country to increase its defense spending.
The impact
The summit between the two leaders has been described as a “high stakes” meeting, mainly with the AUKUS project, which aims to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, currently under Pentagon review. It also comes as reports suggest the United States could take stakes in Australian mining companies due to the country’s mineral resources.
Oct. 24 Irish presidential election
Ireland will hold an election Friday to pick the successor to President Michael Higgins, who has been in office since 2011.
What’s happened so far
Higgins, twice elected, is barred by constitutional term limits from standing again, throwing open the field. After a number of candidates expressed interest in running, electoral requirements narrowed the field to three: independent candidate and former parliamentarian Catherine Connolly, former military officer and popular sports figure Jim Gavin and experienced Cabinet Minister Heather Humphreys. Gavin, who ran with the backing of the country’s prime minister and Fianna Fail, the lead party in Ireland’s government, withdrew from the race in early October narrowing the field to two. Connolly, who enjoys broad left-wing support, including from Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein, is the current frontrunner in polls and is now up against seasoned Cabinet Minister Humphreys, who has support from the junior party in Ireland’s government as well as a broad rural base.
The impact
The president of Ireland serves as head of state but holds a largely ceremonial role. With current President Higgins’ second term set to expire on November 11, a presidential inauguration for the winner of this election is expected to take place the day after, beginning a seven-year term that ends in 2032.
What Else Matters
Mexico deadly floods
Torrential rain stemming from two tropical storms caused landslides and flooding this past weekend in the Mexican states of Veracruz, Puebla, Hidalgo, Querétaro and San Luis Potosí that left dozens of people dead and missing. President Claudia Sheinbaum said an estimated 100,000 homes were damaged. Hundreds of towns are cut off from the rest of the world, with aid needed to be flown in. As for why everyone seemed to be caught off guard, Sheinbaum said no weather model indicated “the rainfall would be of this magnitude.”
Watch for: There is anger among citizens affected by the deadly storm. During a visit to the town of Poza Rica in Veracruz, angry crowds confronted the president, asking for more support and help finding missing people. It also has led some people to get help from cartels in areas the government has not been able to reach. It is a tactic criminal groups in Mexico often use to gain support from local communities. The disaster is also raising questions about the 2021 elimination of Fondo de Desastres Naturales (FONDEN), a special disaster relief fund that former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador got rid of over speculative allegations of corruption. Another natural disaster without it could lead lawmakers to reinstate it, or opposition politicians might use the issue to challenge the MORENA political party’s hold on the Mexican public.
Military coup in Madagascar
On Saturday, soldiers from Madagascar’s elite CAPSAT military unit mutinied against President Andry Rajoelina. Rajoelina’s regime, which ruled the island on and off since 2009, faced weeks of youth-led protests beginning in September. At least 22 people were killed during the “Gen-Z” demonstrations sparked by persistent load shedding and water cuts in Madagascar’s cities. Members of CAPSAT seized on the instability to take control of government buildings with little resistance over the weekend, forcing Rajoelina to go into hiding. When Rajoelina attempted to dissolve the country’s legislature in absentia, he was swiftly impeached. The leader of CAPSAT, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, has assumed the role of interim president for a period of democratic transition lasting up to two years. For his part, Rajoelina continues to claim that he remains in control of the country, and has yet to formally resign.
Watch for: While the country’s High Court has ordered a presidential election before Dec. 13, the ruling military junta has not committed to this timeline. The military regime is expected to name a new prime minister and cabinet soon. Rajoelina came into power in 2009 through a CAPSAT-backed coup, and elections were not held for another four years. The African Union has suspended Madagascar’s membership following this week’s coup. Additionally, Rajoelina is the sitting chairperson of the Southern African Development Community, a title he will surely lose alongside a possible suspension for Madagascar’s new leaders. International flights through Air France and Ethiopian Airlines have been halted at Antananarivo’s airport, and foreign governments have strongly advised against travel to the island. In the long term, it remains to be seen if Madagascar’s junta will integrate the country’s Gen-Z protest leaders into their political vision, and if the new regime will take a pro-Russian stance similar to Francophone military governments in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 18-24
Oct. 19
- Bolivian presidential election runoff
Oct. 20
- 20th CPC Central Committee to hold fourth plenary session
- Australian prime minister visits White House
- Calgary elections
Oct. 21
- Fed conference on crypto and AI
Oct. 23
- Teachers, nurses, health care workers strike in New Zealand
Oct. 24
- Irish presidential election
- Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir
Oct. 25-31
Oct. 25
- Ivory Coast presidential election
Oct. 26
- Argentina midterm elections
- ASEAN summit
- India and China plan to restart flights
Oct. 27
- Trump visits Japan
- Japan launches org to combat population decline
Oct. 29
- Netherlands elections
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
Oct. 30
- APEC summit in South Korea
- India’s Noida International Airport to be inaugurated
Nov. 1-7
Nov. 1
- U.S. tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks will go into effect
- Affordable Care Act enrollment period begins
Nov. 2
- Montreal mayoral election
- OPEC+ meeting
Nov. 3
- FIFA U-17 World Cup in Qatar
- Yukon elections
Nov. 4
- U.S. election day
- Canada introduces budget
Nov. 5
- U.S. Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s tariffs
Nov. 6
- FDA convenes meeting of external digital health advisors
Nov. 8-14
Nov. 10
- Egypt parliamentary election
- COP30 kicks off in Belem, Brazil
- ConocoPhillips to begin layoffs
Nov. 14
- Deadline for new prosecutor in Georgia election case
Feature Photo: David Geitgey Sierralupe, CC BY 2.0
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.