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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Bolivians elected opposition centrist Rodrigo Paz as president this week, putting an end to two decades of left-wing rule. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss the aftermath from the runoff election and what’s next for Bolivia’s nearly 11 million people.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Oct. 24-31
A Look Ahead
Oct. 25 | Ivory Coast election
Voting begins on Saturday in the Ivory Coast’s presidential election, overshadowed by candidate disqualifications and crackdowns on free speech and protests.
What’s happened so far
With growing inequality and a high poverty rate, a field of candidates emerged to run against 83-year-old President Alassane Ouattara who is seeking a fourth term in office to extend his rule that began in 2011. Some of these challengers, including opposition leader and former Credit Suisse executive Tidjane Thiam, have been barred from the ballot. Crackdowns have been ordered on youth-led protests inspired by similar movements across the globe that have seen restless younger populations challenge the rule of older leaders. Five candidates remain, including Ouattara, former commerce minister Jean-Louis Billon and one-time First Lady Simone Gbagbo, who was a surprise inclusion with her ex-husband, former president Laurent Gbagbo, excluded from running.
The impact
There is little doubt that Ouattara will win, after landslide wins in previous elections and buoyed by a fast-growing economy that critics say is leaving many behind, but a serious challenge to him where he dips below winning a majority would trigger a run-off vote.
Oct. 26 | 47th ASEAN summit
Malaysia is preparing to welcome more than 30 heads of state to Kuala Lumpur for the 47th edition of the biannual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit starting on Sunday, in one of the largest events in the group’s history.
What’s happened so far
U.S. President Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang are expected to attend in a noteworthy lineup for the usually regional summit. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China will likely be top of mind as the countries wrestle for influence, but ASEAN has its own regional priorities, including border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand and Myanmar’s plans to hold elections in December.
The impact
East Timor is set to be formally admitted as ASEAN’s 11th member state during this summit. Trump’s presence in Kuala Lumpur may draw protests from local political groups. Malaysian police plan to deploy more than 16,000 personnel for the summit, with traffic restrictions in Kuala Lumpur between Oct. 23 and 28, as preparatory meetings convene ahead of the main summit on Sunday.
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Oct. 26 | Argentina midterm elections
Argentina will hold legislative elections on Sunday to elect 127 deputies and 24 senators.
What’s happened so far
Half of the seats in the country’s Chamber of Deputies are up for election every two years, with a minimum of five seats guaranteed per province. The Senate ensures federal representation in Congress is formed by three elected representatives per province plus Buenos Aires Autonomous City, with a third of those seats up for election. Voting in Argentina is mandatory for citizens between 18 and 70 years of age and optional for citizens between 16 and 18 and over 70.
The impact
Recent polls show a polarized electorate, between President Javier Milei’s ultra-conservative party La Libertad Avanza and left-wing opposition party Fuerza Patria, with the two sides separated by just a few percentage points, and centrist formation Provincias Unidas trailing well behind. The election will take place in a climate of voter fatigue and skepticism about national politics.
Oct. 27 | Trump Japan visit
U.S. President Trump will visit Japan on Monday and meet with the country’s new prime minister.
What’s happened so far
Trump will be visiting Japan as part of a broader trip through the Asia-Pacific region that will include attending the ASEAN summit in Malaysia and the APEC gathering in South Korea. In South Korea, Trump is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC meeting amid ongoing trade tensions.
The impact
In Japan, Trump will meet newly-appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who made history last week by becoming the first female Japanese head of state. A hardline conservative and nationalist who was a protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who famously enjoyed a relatively good relationship with Trump during his first term, Takaichi is an advocate of bolstering the U.S.-Japan alliance and was praised by Trump on social media after winning the LDP leadership vote.
Oct. 29 | Netherlands elections
Dutch citizens will head to the polls on Wednesday after the coalition government collapsed in June due to a dispute over the government’s position on asylum.
What’s happened so far
A four-party coalition was formed following elections in 2023, bringing together the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, the New Social Contract and the Farmer-Citizen Movement. The arrangement collapsed this June after PVV’s chief Geert Wilders resigned after the coalition declined to commit to his 10-point plan on migration. The remaining parties continued as a caretaker government since then, but not without its challenges, as two months later foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned over the government’s stance on Israel.
The impact
While polling shows the PVV still in the lead to secure most votes, a majority is not likely and other parties have ruled out forming a government with the party. This means a new fragmented coalition could be formed, as well as the formation of a minority government. Whatever the outcome, stability is possibly not in the cards, in a country that has seen three elections in five years.
Oct. 31 | APEC summit
Representatives from 21 member countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will meet in South Korea’s Gyeongju for the annual regional forum Friday and Saturday.
What’s happened so far
With the theme of “building a sustainable tomorrow,” this year’s APEC summit will focus on “addressing shared challenges, embracing digital innovation, and prioritizing inclusive growth”. South Korean authorities have strengthened security in the southeastern city where high-level officials are expected to gather, mobilizing up to 18,500 police and security officers, as well as anti-drone jammers, armoured vehicles and helicopters. Among the attendees, many are keeping a close eye on U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, as the two are expected to meet for the first time since Trump re-entered the White House. Around 1,700 global industry leaders, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, will also visit the city for the CEO summit that runs parallel to the forum leaders’ summit, from Oct. 28 to 31.
The impact
The summit comes against the backdrop of fresh tension between the United States and China. Earlier this month, Beijing expanded its export rules on rare earth materials used in a wide range of electronic devices, a move which was followed by Trump’s remark threatening additional tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1. With both the White House and Beijing reassuring traders and investors that they are looking for a way forward but also emphasizing that they won’t easily back down, analysts will be closely watching as leaders of the world’s two largest economies go head to head.
What Else Matters
Bolivia election aftermath
Bolivia is set to undergo massive changes after Sunday’s election of centrist senator Rodrigo Paz, ending the near 20-year rule of the Movement Toward Socialism party. MAS rose to power under the leadership of Evo Morales, who was banned from running again after already being president three times. Morales has also been the subject of allegations of sexual impropriety and is facing charges of human trafficking. He denies the claims, calling them politically motivated. Despite that, he still has a large number of supporters who have protested on his behalf, which have sometimes turned violent.
Watch for: Paz quickly announced he would be reestablishing relations with the United States and turning away from current allies like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba. He also campaigned using the slogan “capitalism for all” and promised reforms to help the country’s failing economy, like cutting fuel subsidies and legalizing smuggling. Paz’s victory saw minor protests from supporters of the right-wing candidate he defeated in the runoff, but Morales could call for protests or road blockades at any time.
Gaza ceasefire
Israeli attacks across Gaza have continued despite a U.S.-proposed ceasefire being agreed to on Oct. 10. Airstrikes culminated on Sunday when, after Israel accused Hamas of killing two of its soldiers during an incident in Rafah, the army proceeded to strike southern, central and northern areas of the besieged territory, killing at least 42 people including children. Hamas has denied breaching the ceasefire, with some media reports suggesting Israel attacked to protect armed proxies that it had been supporting since the war and with which Hamas has reportedly been fighting with. Hours later, on Sunday evening, Israel announced it was resuming the ceasefire terms.
Watch for: Hamas said that it was facing logistical issues in retrieving the bodies of Israeli captives killed, which Israel claimed was a breach of the terms of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, bodies of Palestinians are gradually being returned by Israel with families and health officials saying many are unrecognizable amid allegations of “abuse and torture.” The amount of aid entering the Gaza Strip is nowhere near what was stipulated in the agreement, with Israel continuing to close the key Rafah crossing in the south. Sunday’s airstrikes have illustrated the fragility of the current ceasefire, which analysts argue leave significant room for its failure. With members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition urging to return to war now that all the live captives have been released, these past few days have raised fears among Palestinians that we might see a return to the war, in its full force.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 24-31
Oct. 24
- Irish presidential election
- Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir
Oct. 25
- Ivory Coast presidential election
Oct. 26
- Argentina midterm elections
- ASEAN summit
- India and China plan to restart flights
Oct. 27
- Trump visits Japan
- Japan launches org to combat population decline
Oct. 29
- Netherlands elections
- U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates
Oct. 30
- APEC summit in South Korea
- India's Noida International Airport to be inaugurated
Nov. 1-7
Nov. 1
- U.S. tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks will go into effect
- Affordable Care Act enrollment period begins
Nov. 2
- Montreal mayoral election
- OPEC+ meeting
Nov. 3
- FIFA U-17 World Cup in Qatar
- Yukon elections
Nov. 4
- U.S. election day
- Canada introduces budget
Nov. 5
- U.S. Supreme Court hears case on Trump's tariffs
Nov. 6
- FDA convenes meeting of external digital health advisors
Nov. 8-14
Nov. 10
- Egypt parliamentary election
- COP30 kicks off in Belem, Brazil
- ConocoPhillips to begin layoffs
Nov. 14
- Deadline for new prosecutor in Georgia election case
Nov. 15-21
Nov. 15
- Anticipated date for Haiti general elections
Nov. 16
- Chilean presidential and parliamentary elections
Nov. 18
- Egypt parliamentary elections results
Nov. 20
- Tonga elections
Nov. 21
- FIFA Futsal Women's World Cup in Pasig, Philippines
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Top photo: U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for the APEC and ASEAN summits, plus a stop in Japan to meet the country's first female prime minister. (Photo: U.S. Embassy Canberra)
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