Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
More than 1,000 people were killed last week in western Syria when armed groups loyal to ousted leader Bashar al-Assad ambushed government forces. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss why some are calling the violence “revenge killings” and how President al-Sharaa announcing an end to the military operation might not end the crisis.
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Week of March 14-21
A Look Ahead
March 14 – Possible U.S. government shutdown
Lawmakers in the United States have until Friday night to pass a spending bill and get it to President Donald Trump’s desk or risk a partial government shutdown.
What’s happened so far
The House voted 217-213 on Tuesday in favor of a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through the end of the fiscal year in September. President Trump pushed for the bill, which won the support of all but one House Republican. It will trim $13 billion of non-defense spending from current levels while increasing defense funding by $6 billion. Next, the bill will go to the Senate, where it will need support from 60 lawmakers — likely including at least eight Democrats — to move on to Trump’s desk for a signature.
The impact
After Tuesday’s vote, it remained unclear whether enough Democrats would support the bill to pass it through Senate amid objections that it lacked specificity and gave the Trump administration broader discretion over federal spending. Some Democrats also expressed concerns that rejecting the bill might create an opportunity for deeper cuts. If lawmakers fail to pass a spending bill by Friday night, hundreds of federal workers could be furloughed without pay, while others, deemed essential, could be required to continue working without pay until legislation is passed.
March 15 – Mali partially lifts suspension on issuance of mining permits
Mali’s mines ministry announced it will partially lift a suspension on mining permits in place since 2022 on Saturday after major work was carried out to clean up the process.
What’s happened so far
In late 2022, the military-led government announced the allocation of mining titles would be suspended while it worked to improve the procedure. Since then, the gold-rich country has introduced new laws raising taxes on mining and granting the state greater stakes in mining assets. Earlier this month, Mali stopped issuing permits for artisanal gold mining to foreign nationals after several fatal incidents.
The impact
While applications for the renewal of search and exploitation will resume, the issuance of new mining permits remains suspended. Several international companies operate in Mali, including Canadian Barrick Gold and U.K.-based Allied Gold, but there have been reports of tensions between mining companies and Mali’s government, which has been demanding money and compliance with the new mining code. Some also worry profits from unregulated mining in northern parts of the country could benefit extremists in the area.
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March 15 – United Airlines resumed New York-Tel Aviv flights
United Airlines is set to become the first U.S. carrier to resume regular daily flights from New York to Tel Aviv on Friday as a tentative ceasefire continues to hold.
What’s happened so far
United joined other airlines in suspending routine flights to Israel in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and resumed them as rocket attacks subsided. Plans to resume a regular service were then shelved as the airline extended its suspension in July 2024 as tensions on Israel’s border with Lebanon flared. Frequent rocket attacks in the area of Israel’s main international airport led to fears an aircraft would be hit on takeoff or approach and most airlines suspended daily service. With a pause in fighting holding and no recent major rocket attacks, United plans to offer a daily service from Friday and will add a second daily flight on March 29.
The impact
Many European carriers, including Lufthansa-KLM and Air France, have already resumed or announced a planned return of flights to Israel, but United will be the first U.S. carrier to resume daily operations. Delta is expected to resume flights to Israel beginning April 1 with no date set for American Airlines.
March 19 – Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s new cabinet sworn in
After becoming the first Ontario premier in more than 60 years to win a third consecutive majority government, Doug Ford will be sworn-in alongside his new cabinet on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
Ford has been at the forefront of Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs, banning American companies from bidding on government procurement contracts and imposing a 25 percent surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. The latter has since been shelved, pending a Thursday meeting in Washington, D.C., between Ford, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer “to discuss a renewed USMCA” free trade agreement ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline of April 2. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump backed off a threat made earlier Tuesday to levy an additional 25 percent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum.
The impact
Ford’s Progressive Conservatives return to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario with 80 of the chamber’s 124 seats, with the New Democratic Party serving as the official opposition with 27, and the Liberals regaining official party status with 14. After promising to “fight tooth and nail against Donald Trump” on election night, it seems likely Ford will continue to serve as a somewhat surprising resistance figure against the new administration from north of the border
March 20 – AP-Trump administration press pool hearing
The Associated Press will be taking on the Trump administration in a federal courtroom on Thursday after being banned from White House events for not using “Gulf of America” instead of “Gulf of Mexico.”
What’s happened so far
Last month, the White House blocked AP reporters from the press pool, citing the news organization’s announcement that its style guide, the standard for news outlets around the world, would continue to use “Gulf of Mexico” rather than “Gulf of America” following an an executive order by President Donald Trump to rename the body of water. In response, the AP sued White House officials, saying they violated the Constitution for singling it out over an editorial decision. A judge denied the AP’s motion for a temporary restraining order but did call the ban discriminatory and problematic. The White House also announced the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA), an independent group of journalists elected by peers, would no longer determine which media outlets get a spot in the press pool and instead the administration would choose.
The impact
The White House maintains that letting AP reporters ask questions in the Oval Office or on Air Force One is a privilege, not a legal right. Meanwhile, the AP said the actions violate the freedom of the press provided by the First Amendment because their reporting is seen by millions. In an amicus brief, the WHCA said the White House choosing which media outlets are allowed in the pool will distort coverage of President Trump. If the judge sides with the Trump administration, millions of Americans’ window into the presidency could be tainted by the coverage provided by outlets that are incentivized to be friendly to the White House.
March 20 – Chinese tariffs on Canada take effect
Beijing said levies on Canada’s agricultural and food exports will come into force Thursday.
What’s happened so far
China’s customs authorities announced that a 100 percent tariff would be imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, with a 25 percent levy on aquatic products and pork imports, in response to Canada’s “discriminatory measures” against Chinese products. This came after Ottawa’s move to impose 100 percent import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and 25 percent levies on steel and aluminum products from Oct.1 last year over concerns that China’s car-making industry was given unfair state subsidies, and following similar moves by the United States and the European Union. In response, China launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports in September.
The impact
According to the Canola Council of Canada, China is the second largest market for Canadian canola with exports of canola seed, oil and meal valued at $5 billion in 2023. China is also Canada’s third-most important pork export market, taking products for which Canada does not have easy alternate markets. While some analysts say that by leaving canola seeds out of the list of products targeted and only imposing tariffs on canola oil, China might have been leaving space for negotiations, others point out that Canada’s upcoming election in October may have also been part of Beijing’s calculation, with a new administration possibly more amendable.
March 21 – Feds order New York to end congestion pricing
The Federal Highway Administration said New York City’s congestion pricing program must end by Friday, after rescinding federal approval of the program last month.
What’s happened so far
The tolling plan took effect on Jan. 5, charging most drivers $9 to enter Manhattan’s Congestion Relief Zone during peak hours, in an effort to both ease traffic and raise funds for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). In a statement defending the program, New York Governor Kathy Hochul said “we are a nation of laws, not ruled by a king,” and promised legal action to protect the program, while the MTA has filed suit in federal court.
The impact
MTA Chairman Janno Lieber has vowed to continue the program past the federal deadline if there’s no court order. A Siena College poll released Monday found 42 percent of city residents in favor of the program, with 35 percent opposed. In the first three-plus weeks of tolling, the MTA collected nearly $50 million and was on track for an estimated $500 million in the first year.
What Else Matters
Syria fighting
Armed groups believed to be allied to the former regime of Bashar al-Assad launched an ambush on government forces in Jableh, in Syria’s Latakia Governorate, last Thursday. This led President Ahmed al-Sharaa to announce a large-scale military operation on the coastal areas to fight what he referred to as “remnants” of the former regime. Fighting quickly spread to inhabited urban areas of both Latakia and Tartus and, although some residents in the Alawite-majority areas managed to escape, many were caught in the fighting that, according to a Syrian war monitor, killed around 1,000 civilians. On Monday, al-Sharaa announced an end to the military operation, claiming to have “eliminated” the security threat from the armed loyalists.
Watch for: Syrian security forces are accused of killing dozens of civilians of the Alawite minority community during the violence. President al-Sharaa has commented on “individual violations” and has pledged to conduct an independent investigation aimed at criminally prosecuting those found to have harmed civilians. Many members of the Alawite security services were found to have been involved in the killing and torture of thousands of Syrians during the Assad family rule, a majority of which are Sunnis, and some are accusing government forces of engaging in acts of “revenge-killings” against the community. Sectarian tensions remain palpable in a post-Assad Syria, and, with a significant portion of the population remaining armed, analysts are weary of a return to civil war in the country.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks
U.S. negotiators are in Russia in an attempt to persuade the Kremlin to agree to a 30-day interim ceasefire with Ukraine. The Ukrainian government agreed to the U.S, proposal earlier this week with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying “strong steps” should be taken if President Vladimir Putin rejects the truce. The Kremlin said little on the proposal and reporting has speculated that Russia continues to demand guarantees Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO and that Ukrainian forces be withdrawn from Russia-occupied territories. The move toward a ceasefire comes as Russian forces mount a major counteroffensive operation in Russia’s Kursk region, recapturing the city of Sudzha expelling Ukrainian forces entrenched there since last August.
Watch for: A 30-day truce would mark the first pause in fighting in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, potentially opening the door to more substantive peace talks that address both Russian and Ukrainian demands. The Trump administration significantly upped pressure to get Kyiv to sign up to the proposal halting military aid and intelligence sharing, which has now resumed. President Donald Trump has hinted that measures could be adopted targeting the Russian economy if the Kremlin does not agree to the proposed truce. Likewise, reporting has also speculated that a potential alleviation of already-existing sanctions on Russia could be used as an incentive to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
March 14-21
March 14
- Possible U.S. government shutdown
- Serbian Parliament session on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
March 15
- United Airlines set to become first U.S. carrier to resume New York-Tel Aviv flights
- Mali partially lifts suspension on issuance of mining permits
March 16
- Stuck” Boeing Starliner astronauts set to return to Earth
March 17
- St. Patrick’s Day
March 19
- First execution in Arizona in two years
- U.S. Federal Reserve meeting
- EU to present action plan for steel sector
- Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet to be sworn in
March 20
- AP-Trump administration press pool hearing
- Chinese tariffs on Canada take effect
March 21
- Feds order NYC to end congestion pricing
March 22-28
March 22
- Gabon presidential election
March 23
- Opposition party to hold primary to pick Turkish presidential candidate
- Argentinian President Javier Milei visits Israel
March 24
- Criminal case hearing against South Korea’s President Yoon on insurrection charges
- Brazilian president visits Japan
- Argentina’s Javier Milei visits Israel
March 28
- Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
March 29-April 4
March 31
- Pakistan asks illegal foreigners, Afghan Citizen Card holders to leave
- South Africa’s deadline for Taiwan to move embassy
- Belgian unions call national strike against austerity measures
- South Korea to lift its ban on short selling across all stock
- Medicare telehealth “flexibilities” established during the Covid-19 pandemic are set to expire
April 1
- Namibia will issue visas on arrival for international investors and tourists
- Canadian federal minimum wage set to increase
April 5-11
April 5
- Possible ELN peace talks in Colombia
April 10
- Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to visit South Africa for talks
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