Factal
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the anti-government protests gripping Turkey, plus more on elections in Tajikistan, an immigration crackdown in Pakistan, a national strike in Belgium and U.S. tariffs.
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These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Alex Moore, Jess Fino and Owen Bonertz. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:43 Turkey protests – an interview with Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor
- 5:15 Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
- 6:13 Pakistan asks illegal foreigners, Afghan citizen card holders to leave
- 7:16 Belgian unions call national strike against austerity measures
- 8:19 Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs enacted
- 9:33 Credits
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is March 27, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got protests in Turkey, elections in Tajikistan, an immigration crackdown in Pakistan, a national strike in Belgium and U.S. tariffs.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Turkey protests
Information compiled by Halima Mansoor
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the protests that have gripped Turkey. For more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.
JIMMY: Hello, Halima,
HALIMA: Hey, Jimmy.
JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. Looking forward to getting caught up on the protests in Turkey. What can you tell us about them?
HALIMA: So, essentially, these protests were triggered by the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19. He is a very popular man, and ever since Imamoglu soft launched his presidential candidacy for a 2028 run, he essentially has put himself in the crosshairs of the ruling AKP government. He is seen as the main contender in any race against President Erdogan – that’s whether Erdogan is running for another presidential stint or supporting an AKP candidate – and that also means Imamoglu is seen as a threat to be removed far in advance, far before elections take place. So the authorities have essentially been trying to find a way to prosecute him pretty much since then. And it’s important to note that Imamoglu, the reason he is a threat is because he has a large base that isn’t limited to the traditional pro-Republic CHP base. It includes them; it includes more traditional and conservative voters that are more akin to the AKP base, as well as many Kurds. So his arrest immediately triggered protests. People were unhappy and those protests kicked off from the university that stripped him of his diploma just the day before his arrest. These protests have been surprisingly large, as we have not seen anything like this since 2013 and well, what’s less surprising was the force that’s been used by the police at these protests. They continued over the past week into this week. We have seen nearly 1,500 people detained, some charged, and some are still waiting for charges.
JIMMY: And what’s the latest? There been any new developments?
HALIMA: Well, he remains in jail pending trial. Imamoglu’s charges are mostly linked to corruption by him, allegedly, via the Istanbul municipality, and a large segment of the population is very unhappy with his imprisonment, as we can see with the mass protests. Something to note is that he hasn’t been replaced by the government with a political appointee like we saw in the Kurdish cities in the past, which is something the opposition has attributed to the pressure put by the protests. The opposition party, the CHP, has also called for wide-ranging boycotts, which includes companies that are visibly aligned with the government and companies that are thought to have some links – which actually those companies are very unhappy with because they say that they’re being unfairly targeted.
JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to all this?
HALIMA: Well, within Turkey, the response, aside from the protesters, has been a bit confused. Other opposition parties have shown visible support for Imamoglu, but haven’t really pushed for a large-scale dissent so far. And the CHP’s decision, which was very fairly recent, to stop holding large gatherings where protesters convene has also left the protesters a bit confused. Like, why would you dampen this momentum right now? Why wouldn’t you call for more gatherings? The response outside of Turkey has been quite varied. President Trump actually appeared to endorse Erdogan this week, but over in Europe, all the politicians have issued strong statements of support for the mayor and were dismayed, very unhappy at the heavy-handed police response to the protests, especially since journalists have also been arrested. Those arrests include at least one AFP photographer who’s detained in Istanbul.
JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?
HALIMA: At least for a bit more, we can expect the protests to continue. Also, from the government side, Erdogan recently said that the CHP’s response showed that they’re not fit to run a municipality, let alone a country, and he also said that their “show” will fizzle out. So we are expecting his crackdown against the opposition to continue, and what I’m also watching for is what the CHP, Imamoglu’s party, decides as a follow-up to these protests, while we wait for Imamoglu’s trial date to be announced.
JIMMY: Well, Halima, we’ll pause it there for today, but thanks so much for your time and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.
HALIMA: Thank you for having me.
Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno
JIMMY: Tajikistan’s upper parliamentary house will hold elections tomorrow.
25 members for the National Assembly will be indirectly picked by cities and districts, with the other eight elected by President Emomali Rahmon.
Rahmon and the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan won the lower house elections earlier this month, with Tajik authorities reporting an 85-percent voter turnout.
Now, while authorities have called the elections fair and transparent, independent observers canceled their trip to Tajikistan after they were not accredited and were not assured they would be.
Moreover, in a secretive trial that started this past November, numerous former Tajik officials were accused of plotting a coup and were sentenced to up to 27 years in jail.
Finally, with no opposition, it is unlikely the upper parliamentary house elections will do anything but continue President Rahmon’s reign, up until the presidential elections in 2027.
Pakistan asks illegal foreigners, Afghan citizen card holders to leave
Information compiled by Alex Moore
JIMMY: Pakistan’s interior ministry asked what it called “illegal foreigners” to depart by Monday. That, or face deportation on April 1.
Following a significant increase in militant attacks in Pakistan that officials blamed on Afghan-based groups, Islamabad launched a mass deportation program aimed at Afghan citizens residing in the country illegally.
According to UN data, this drive resulted in the expulsion of nearly a million Afghans from Pakistan.
Now, Pakistan’s new repatriation drive will target documented migrants that hold Afghan Citizen Cards, affecting nearly 900,000 individuals.
Additionally, about 1.3 million Afghan migrants reside legally in Pakistan holding a separate proof of residence permit, though it is unclear how this new directive impacts those folks.
The deportation order will enter into force just days after the main border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan was reopened after intense border clashes prompted its closure.
Belgian unions call national strike against austerity measures
Information compiled by Jess Fino
JIMMY: A nationwide strike action is expected to take place in Belgium on Monday. Workers across multiple sectors are demanding better working conditions.
Following several months of negotiations, the new Belgian government announced a coalition agreement earlier this year.
The agreement included changes to tax and labor law policies, including a cap on unemployment benefits, early retirement penalties and a freeze in pay.
Unions called the deal an attack on “social and democratic rights.”
A massive strike action day was announced, with most trade unions expected to take part.
Now, public transport and flights at some airports, including in Brussels, will be affected by the planned strikes.
The capital’s main airports have warned no passenger flights will depart on the day, while arrivals will also be impacted.
Several trade unions have warned they see the government’s agreement as a “declaration of war” against the working world and the strike marks the “beginning of a marathon of resistance” that could last for the entirety of the legislative term.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs enacted
Information compiled by Owen Bonertz
JIMMY: US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 percent tariff for all cars that are not made in the United States starting Wednesday.
That’s the same day the administration’s 25-percent tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada could also come into effect.
President Trump announced those tariffs shortly after getting elected, with the policy delayed twice in February and March.
Both Canada and Mexico have imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States throughout the negotiation process, with Mexico vowing to move away from Asian imports.
Now, Trump has taken to calling April 2 “Liberation Day” to signify the country’s “liberation” from a trade system he perceives to be one-sided.
Still, while addressing the press this week, Trump hinted at a more scaled-back tariff regime.
The current trade war has turned the economic outlook rather pessimistic for the three largest countries in North America and has increased the popularity of the current governments in Canada and Mexico.
Finally, another month-long delay for the flat 25-percent tariff is possible until the election of a new Canadian government on April 28, but taxes on certain sectors will likely come into effect on Wednesday.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jaime Calle Moreno, Alex Moore, Jess Fino and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: A crowd gathers in Istanbul possibly protesting by Mahmut Yıldız on Unsplash
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