Dave Clark
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jaime Calle Moreno discuss the wildfires raging in Chile, plus more on the Munich Security Conference, a deadline for Hamas to release hostages, the UN Security Council meeting and South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial.
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These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Jaime Calle Moreno, Irene Villora, Hua Hsieh, Jeff Landset and Vivian Wang. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:44 Chile wildfires – an interview with Factal editor Jaime Calle Moreno
- 9:52 Munich Security Conference
- 11:13 Israeli deadline for Hamas to resume release of hostages
- 12:42 UN Security Council meeting
- 14:19 South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial opens
- 15:21 Credits
Transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Feb. 13, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got wildfires in Chile, the Munich Security Conference, a deadline for Hamas to release hostages, the UN Security Council meeting and South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Chile wildfires
Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the wildfires in Chile. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal Editor Jaime Calle Moreno.
JIMMY: Hello Jaime.
JAIME: Hi Jimmy. How’s it going?
JIMMY: It’s good. Thanks for being here. Looks like we’ve got some wildfires raging in Chile. What can you tell us about them?
JAIME: Well, to start off, we’re at the height of Chile’s wildfire season, one that has been relatively calm since it started around the end of November. There’s been active wildfires throughout this period, causing evacuations in certain sectors, but not any that have really escalated into a major way. That was the case up until the beginning of February, and more so even just this past weekend. There were several fires being combated in Araucanía, Ñuble, Biobio, Maule – just predominantly in the south-central areas of the very, very narrow country. On Saturday, though, and this is where it started getting a bit more intense, President Gabriel Boric declared a preventive state of emergency for both Maule and Ñuble ahead of very high temperatures that aren’t typical in that region, possibly reaching 40 degrees Celsius, which I think in Fahrenheit is around 104 or 105. The state of emergency, which is typical in this – in these regions, is largely to enable the military to help possible firefighting efforts. But it really was to no avail, though, pretty much directly a year after the terrible fires in Valparaiso that killed more than 100 people. This time around, fires began sprouting across separate regions, but mostly in the Araucanía region. Not just a couple of wildfires as well – dozens of them in different areas, such as Lautaro, Galvarino, Ercilla, Collipulli This obviously caused evacuation orders to be issued – around 120 just in the past six days alone, which is a very high amount – and it also led to the government issuing a nighttime curfew across 12 or 13 different communes of the Araucanía region to pretty much largely limit vehicular mobility at night. It by no means reached the level of the Viña del Mar and Valparaiso fires reached last year, in terms of devastation, but it is still sizable for those regions, especially how spread out they’ve been.
JIMMY: And what’s the latest? Seen any new developments?
JAIME: Yeah, Jimmy. So, so far, we have one person dead in Maule after being trapped in his home during a nearby wildfire that ended up destroying his house and three others, three others injured in different locations. This also adds to the fact that 30 homes or so have been destroyed so far across these various different regions. Across the south-central area there’s currently still around 19 active wildfires across Araucanía, with some continuing to grow. And then this is also added to the fact that there’s another 14 that have been put under control and another 24 extinguished. So that’s quite a lot of wildfires in a day that are being fought by firefighting operations across four or five different regions. Now this means, of course, that the firefighters and emergency volunteer crews are very, very stretched out among these wildfires, especially in places like I just mentioned, Galvarino, Ercilla, and Puren and Lautaro as well. These four being kind of the most dangerous and out-of-control ones right now, and they’re all in Araucanía. The government has not only maintained those states of emergency for high temperatures, but they’ve also left the nighttime curfews across those communes and also declared an agriculture emergency, which is different to the one that they declared before, just in Araucanía, again, as well. That region in particular, there’s, I think, around more than 30,000 acres that have burned so far, which is a pretty high increase. It’s around, I think, 130% more since last year. And in Maule alone, where several fires are still raging, it’s actually had a 600% increase since last year, which is a staggering amount, really.
JIMMY: And what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?
JAIME: Well, this is where it gets a little bit more interesting this time around. At least 14 people have been arrested so far in connection to the fires and Chilean authorities have not only hinted at the fact that a large degree of these fires are intentional, which is kind of why the vehicular mobility part of the curfew exists. But additionally, the interior minister, whose name is Carolina Toha, also hinted that it may be due to territorial issues. Now, this directly places the indigenous population of Chile and also of Argentina who are, then – they typically call them the Mapuches. It’s kind of this large indigenous community in that area at the forefront of the fires. Now, just to give a little bit of a background, Mapuches have been in a constant battle with the Chilean government over what they consider to be their land, called Wallmapu, which encapsulates all of these Patagonian regions where there are active wildfires, like Los Lagos, Los Rios, Araucanía, Biobio, and then also parts of Argentina, in Chubut and Neuquen. Now, militancy within the Mapuches has also been a significant issue for the country. The central government, for years, instituted a continued state of emergency across the southern macro zone, which is these areas, because indigenous militants would kind of regularly conduct arson attacks on telephone poles, forestry equipment, lumber mills, those kinds of targets. Few times there’s been deaths in these attacks, but it has happened. And around 2023, following the, kind of, the failure of changing the Chilean constitution – which was, you know, a major turning point in Chile in the past couple of years – the militancy has calmed down significantly since then. However, this, and this may be a bit outside the scope, but it’s, I think, also equally important and kind of brings together these Chilean wildfires that are happening now with a larger story is that just across the border of these regions, fires are raging in Argentina’s Patagonia region, specifically in those two provinces that I mentioned, Neuquen and Chubut, there’s this very large fire near the tourist destination of Bariloche that started, I think, over 40 days ago, and it kind of still continues. The Argentinian government has pretty much placed a lot of the blame on the indigenous community, and has even touted declaring the Resistencia Ancestral Mapuche, or for short, the RAM, which is a Mapuche militant group, as a terrorist organization. Even the leader of this organization, Facundo Jones Huala, was arrested last week and questioned over the fires without really being detained and arrested. All of these things can clearly lead to a much bigger problem.
JIMMY: Well,considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?
JAIME: In terms of the wildfires themselves, it’s really difficult to tell whether they’re going to grow or they’ll subside. You know, climate change and a really, really severe and really rough, decades-long drought has made Chile one of the most water stressed countries in the world, and has really, unfortunately, exacerbated the issue quite significantly. There is so much vegetation in this area of Chile. It’s pretty much all temperate forests and so there’s no shortage of kindling in the regions themselves. You know, there’s also a big thing to say about small, rural communes that are encroaching further and further into the forest and so accidents with generators, where a fire start can really happen easily. And this is something that every year is now a normality in Chile. So the fires may continue, especially with such high temperatures, and they may go into populated areas if winds pick up, or there may not be any more major wildfire outbreaks, right? And this is the same with states of emergencies and curfews being declared. But I think a major part of this is Chile’s Mapuche conflict. Now, the Mapuches have denied their involvement in starting the fires. It is, at the end of the day, their land, and so in their perspective, there doesn’t seem to be a reason why they would start such large fires. But it could also be individuals fed up with the status quo of the conflict that have started them. It’s an election year in Chile and indigenous rights and territorial claims are likely to become a talking point. These fires could definitely exacerbate the issue and put further stress on a conflict that, for the last year or so, has been relatively, if not completely, quiet, and make quite a national story. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the coming months, especially with the election being such a watershed moment in terms of possibly moving away from Boric’s more liberal and kind of left-leaning leadership since the social protests shook the country in 2019. But again, in terms of the wildfires, it’s very difficult to tell. What is sure is that if the high temperatures continue there will be more fires that pop up in certain regions, and that means that evacuation orders could continue.
JIMMY: Well, Jaime, we’ll have to pause there as usual, but thanks for getting us up to speed on the situation. Always appreciate your time.
JAIME: Thanks, Jimmy.
Munich Security Conference
Information compiled by Irene Villora
JIMMY: The Munich Security Conference starts Friday in Germany.
And according to a report issued ahead of the meeting, it comes as world leaders fear the United States is now “a risk to be hedged against”.
The conference issued a report on Monday raising concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and proposed land grabs of Greenland and Canada.
Trump will not attend the conference but instead will send Vice President JD Vance, who is likely to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Nearly 60 world leaders are expected to gather in Munich. They’ll discuss global security and governance, democratic resilience, climate security, the future of transatlantic partnership and Europe’s role in the world.
Now, the new U.S. government’s policy and possible ceasefire plans for the war between Ukraine and Russia will likely become one of the key topics on the sidelines of the event.
A U.S. delegation is expected to visit Ukraine ahead of the conference.
U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, however, has denied reports he will unveil a completed peace plan to the conference.
Finally, in line with the organization’s concerns over populist politics, Germany’s left wing and right wing anti-establishment parties, the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, have been barred from the event.
Israeli deadline for Hamas to resume release of hostages
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has threatened to resume military operations in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t resume releasing hostages by noon on Saturday.
Hamas has been gradually releasing Israeli captives as agreed in the first 42-day phase of the ceasefire deal.
So far, 16 of the expected 33 Israeli captives have been freed, as well as five Thai hostages who were returned in an unscheduled release.
In exchange, Israel has released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those serving sentences for deadly attacks and others detained without charges during the war.
On Monday, Hamas said it would stop releasing Israeli captives until further notice, accusing Israel of violating ceasefire terms.
A day after the unexpected announcement, is when Netanyahu gave Hamas the ultimatum.
Shortly after, the Israeli military announced it would raise the level of readiness and postpone leave for soldiers in the Southern Command.
Now, the exchange of hostages for prisoners set for this Saturday would have been the sixth under the first phase of the ceasefire.
That plan calls for swaps to continue on a weekly basis until March 2.
While the proposal of the second phase saw all remaining living hostages in Gaza released and Israeli forces completely withdrawn from the territory, concerns are growing that the fragile ceasefire could be broken if no agreement is reached as Saturday approaches.
UN Security Council meeting
Information compiled by Jeff Landset
JIMMY: The UN Security Council will meet on Tuesday. And with China’s month-long presidency of the Council underway, officials are pointing at the meeting as a way for Beijing to sit down with the Trump administration and focus on conflicts like trade, TikTok and the Panama Canal.
The presidency of the UN Security Council, of course, rotates on a monthly basis between its member states.
China’s turn does come at an interesting time, though: the first month of Donald Trump’s second term as president.
Trump, as you may recall, has already imposed a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China.
And China put retaliatory tariffs in place on other products from the United States like liquefied natural gas, coal and farm machinery.
Trump also vowed to save TikTok by having its Chinese owner sell the app to an American group and threatened to take back the Panama Canal because of claims the Chinese are operating it.
And while there’s no evidence of the latter, the accusation did lead Panama to exit from China’s Belt and Road initiative.
Now, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be at the UN in the upcoming days and a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could happen.
China’s UN ambassador says cooperation is needed because “so much is at stake.”
Still, Rubio hasn’t confirmed whether or not he will attend.
Finally, China appears to be using this as an opportunity to invite a face-to-face meeting with a hostile Trump administration.
If it’s refused, China could then say it is practicing what it preaches by trying to “strengthen multilateralism” at the UN.
South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial opens
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: Amid ongoing impeachment proceedings, embattled South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will face his first preliminary hearing next Thursday for a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection.
As you may recall, after a short-lived attempt at declaring martial law last December, Yoon was quickly impeached by the legislature on grounds of violating the constitution.
He then was arrested on separate criminal charges of insurrection in January.
His impeachment and criminal cases are being conducted separately, with the Constitutional Court in charge of the impeachment, and the Seoul Central District Court handling the criminal case.
Now, impeachment proceedings are continuing at a quick clip, with some legal circles anticipating a potential mid-March verdict.
Yoon’s legal team, however, may invoke a constitutional act asking the court to pause impeachment proceedings because of the concurrent criminal trial involving similar allegations.
Meanwhile, thousands of demonstrators continue to rally across the country both against and in support of the president.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Irene Villora, Hua Hsieh, Jeff Landset and Vivian Wang. Our interview featured editor Jaime Calle Moreno and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Wildfires continue to spread in Chile’s Araucanía region, where CONAF has deployed two tanker aircraft to fight the blazes. (Photo: CONAF)
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