Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
President-elect Donald Trump will take office Jan. 20, just 11 weeks after an election that saw his Republican party make notable gains across the country. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the upcoming inauguration, cabinet picks and Trump’s vow to issue a slew of executive orders on Day One.
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Week of Jan. 17-24
A Look Ahead
Jan. 17 – Russia and Iran to sign strategic pact
Russia and Iran are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement on Friday during a visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Moscow.
What’s happened so far
Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss the further expansion of bilateral ties in trade, investment, transportation and humanitarian sectors, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, before meeting with the media. While Iran has confirmed the agreement stipulates a deepening of ties in the defense and security sector, neither side has specified what an expansion of the two country’s military cooperation would look like. Russia has become increasingly reliant on Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine, using them to carry out crippling strikes on energy infrastructure, and Moscow plans to rely more heavily on that technology, with Putin saying the country’s army would receive 10 times more drones in 2025 and has proposed the creation of a new branch of the military for unmanned systems.
The impact
Russia penned a similar strategic partnership agreement with North Korea last summer, which resulted in Pyongyang sending more than 10,000 troops to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine. While Iran sending troops is unlikely, it is reasonable to assume Russia will be looking to consolidate already-existing military ties with Tehran and shore up its drone supply. The agreement is also a symbolic one, bolstering Russia’s ties with regimes opposing western influence in a challenge to the incoming Trump administration in the United States.
Jan. 18 – Electoral campaign for Honduran elections begin
The campaign season for the Honduran presidential election, set for Nov. 30, will begin on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Current President Xiomara Castro, elected in 2022, is constitutionally not allowed to run for office again. Several candidates will be vying for the presidency, most notably Castro’s own left-wing Liberty and Refoundation party with current defense minister Rixi Moncada on the ballot. Voters will take part in the primaries on March 9.
The impact
Former President Juan Orlando Hernandez was removed from office after being arrested and extradited to the United States on drug trafficking charges, which he was convicted of on June 26, 2024. Castro’s political party has again been mired in a drug trafficking scandal, with his nephew and brother-in-law seen in a 2013 video attempting to receive financing from drug traffickers for her electoral campaign. Her approval ratings have dropped, and it remains to be seen how substantial the shift toward the two opposition parties, namely the National Party and the Liberal Party, is as campaigning begins.
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Jan. 19 – Deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok or face U.S. ban
China-based tech company ByteDance has until Sunday to sell its U.S. operation of TikTok or the popular short-video app will be banned in the country.
What’s happened so far
TikTok has faced scrutiny for years from U.S. officials over national security concerns, with some arguing that the Chinese government could gain access to huge volumes of valuable U.S. user data. Efforts to prohibit the app stretch back to the first Trump administration, but President Joe Biden ultimately signed a law on April 24, 2024, that gave ByteDance 270 days to sell the embattled social media platform. TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments earlier this month, but the court appeared to signal that it would uphold the ban.
The impact
TikTok’s lawyer has argued that if the law forcing the platform’s sale or ban is upheld, it could pave the way for laws targeting other companies. Meanwhile, with the deadline quickly approaching, rumors have begun to swirl about who could buy TikTok if ByteDance decides to sell it. Chinese officials have reportedly even discussed a contingency plan that would involve Elon Musk acquiring TikTok’s U.S. operations, according to Bloomberg.
Jan. 20 – Trump inauguration
Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on Monday, returning to the White House after a four-year absence.
What’s happened so far
Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting on day one of his administration, with an immediate focus on border security and immigration enforcement, Republican senators were told earlier this month. He’s also expected to roll back several initiatives championed by Joe Biden, including a ban on offshore oil and gas development in some U.S. coastal waters and government support of electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the Senate will be tasked with confirming Trump’s cabinet picks, with his nominees to run the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services, Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Director of National Intelligence designee Tulsi Gabbard facing the deepest scrutiny.
The impact
In his first term, Trump issued 220 executive orders, the most by a president in a single four-year term since the Carter administration. He appears likely to lean heavily on them again and attempt to bypass lawmakers whenever possible, especially with a narrow House majority, pushing the traditional limits of governing by edict. Whether all of them will hold up to legal scrutiny, even with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, remains to be seen. For Inauguration Day itself, approximately 25,000 law enforcement and military personnel will be deployed across Washington, D.C., with an estimated 200,000 visitors expected in the nation’s capital.
Jan. 20 – Davos summit
The annual World Economic Forum will start Monday in the Swiss resort town of Davos.
What’s happened so far
The World Economic Forum summit began in 1971 before metastasizing into a globally-influential event that compiles global politicians, business elites, media leaders and academics, among others. Approximately 60 heads of state are expected to make appearances, including U.S. President-elect Trump, who will join the conference virtually.
The impact
Among the notable topics will be typical staples such as climate change, economic growth and artificial intelligence, as well as the future of Syria as the conference will be attended by the country’s new foreign minister in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime. Swiss authorities have already undergone extensive measures to secure the conference and up to 5,000 military personnel will be deployed alongside fighter jets. The summit has been a consistent target of protests in recent years by climate activists seizing upon the optics of a gathering of global elite in a Swiss mountain resort to call out the participants for climate hypocrisy.
Jan. 25 – Egypt revolution anniversary
Next Saturday will mark 14 years since the popular uprisings of the Egyptian revolution saw the overthrow of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
What’s happened so far
2011 saw a wave of popular uprisings that spread across the Arab world, demanding the fall of authoritarian regimes, including that of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. After weeks of popular protests with thousands of arrests and hundreds of people killed, Mubarak finally resigned on Feb. 11.
The impact
The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in December following a surprise offensive by rebel forces has sparked particular concern for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi’s rule has been marked with continued enforced disappearances, economic hardships, continued power outages, forced displacement of entire neighborhoods, and unpopular politics on the war in Gaza. The authoritarian leader’s constant broadcasts on state TV stressing that he has “no blood on his hands” reflect his fears of potential popular movements against the current regime. As a result, analysts expect a particularly widespread deployment of security forces on the anniversary and the days leading up to the key date, especially in downtown Cairo, with some arrests already having taken place among pro-Syrian rebel groups and pro-Palestinian demonstrators.
What Else Matters
California wildfires
The death toll of last week’s devastating wildfires in Southern California has risen to at least 25 people and attention is turning to what caused the blazes as well as the next steps in the recovery process. The Palisades Fire, which has killed at least eight people, may have been caused by the rekindling of a New Year’s fire sparked by fireworks. Both the San Francisco Chronicle and the Washington Post have posted investigations that surmise “severe winds could have rekindled smoldering embers” from six days prior. As for the even deadlier Eaton Fire, investigators are focusing on an electrical transmission tower in Eaton Canyon.
Watch for: Gov. Gavin Newsom has talked about a “Marshall Plan” to help rebuild ahead of the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics. He has already suspended some environmental laws to help fix the damage, estimated to be more than $250 billion. People in Los Angeles also need to consider natural disasters that may come after destructive fires. Burn scars could lead to landslides every time it rains in Los Angeles. The pollution from these burned-out communities is likely depositing harmful chemicals like asbestos and heavy metals into the region’s air and waterways.
Venezuela power struggle
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated on Jan. 10 for a third consecutive six-year term after a disputed general election in July that saw opposition claims of electoral fraud by the regime, mass protests and the self-exile to Spain of opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González after being accused of terrorism by Maduro’s government. González, who proclaimed himself as Venezuela’s president-elect after publishing voting tallies, failed to enter the country to take office on Friday despite declarations of his intention to do so in the months prior. Instead, the opposition claimed the conditions for González’s return were not optimal at the time and posed a risk to his integrity. Opposition protests took place in Venezuela’s capital Caracas on Jan. 9 in an attempt to block Maduro’s inauguration, which ended in the apparent detention of González’s running mate Maria Corina Machado.
Watch for: Despite Friday’s events, González once again stated his intentions to return to the country to take office “at the right time.” Meanwhile, he is believed to be touring neighbouring Latin American countries in an effort to garner further regional support. The conditions for the opposition’s plan to guarantee González’s return and his access to power remain unclear, as Venezuelan security forces and judiciary appear to remain on Maduro’s side. Additional sanctions have been issued against Maduro and his officials since Friday by the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union amid continued efforts to exert pressure on the regime over its refusal to publish the official voting tallies. Since his inauguration, Maduro has expressed Venezuela’s “readiness” to “take up arms” supported by its allies in the face of a possible aggression.
Mozambique opposition leader returns for inauguration of new government
President Daniel Chapo was inaugurated Wednesday, continuing 50 years of constant FRELIMO party governance in the country. The second-place candidate from October’s controversial election, Venancio Mondlane, returned to Maputo on Jan. 9, sparking violent protests. Mondlane left the country for three months in mid-October following the apparent assassination of two close advisors on Oct. 19. Mondlane and his Podemos party have consistently alleged fraud in the results of October’s elections, in which official government results claim Chapo won 65 percent of the vote to Mondlane’s 23 percent. Independent observers have identified inconsistencies in Mozambique’s electoral system in the past, and Mondlane himself was the runner-up in a previous razor-thin election for mayor of Maputo. Mondlane’s base of mostly young supporters across the entire political spectrum have turned out in the streets. Demonstrations have frequently turned violent, with at least 300 deaths connected to protests since October.
Watch for: The police presence in Maputo was significantly increased for the inauguration ceremonies of both the FRELIMO-dominated parliament and the presidency after Mondlane called for three days of nationwide demonstrations leading up to Jan. 15. Former President Filipe Nyusi negotiated with the opposition on electoral reforms, but Mondlane was not invited to the summit. While Chapo and FRELIMO’s power does not seem to be seriously threatened, the country’s opposition gains most of its support from youth voters in a population where the median age is only 17. More protests in the cities and the ongoing Islamist insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado region will likely embolden the opposition even more ahead of 2029 and the next set of elections.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 17-24
Jan. 17
- Russia’s Putin and Iran’s Pezeshkian to sign strategic partnership pact
Jan. 18
- Electoral campaign for Honduran elections begins
Jan. 19
- Trump rally in Washington, D.C.
- Deadline for Bytedance to divest TikTok or face U.S. ban
Jan. 20
- Davos Summit
- United States presidential inauguration
Jan. 21
- NYC doctors plan strike
Jan. 23
- Turkish Airlines to resume flights to Damascus
Jan. 25-31
Jan. 25
- Egypt revolution anniversary
Jan. 26
- Belarusian presidential election
- Australia Day
- India’s Republic Day
- End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
Jan. 29
- Lunar New Year
Feb. 1-7
Feb. 2
- Togo legislative election
Feb. 5
- Delhi legislative assembly election
- Milkipur assembly by-election
Feb. 8-14
Feb. 9
- Kosovo elections
Feb. 14
- Munich Security Conference begins
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Top photo: Donald Trump will be sworn-in as the 47th President of the United States on Jan. 20, eight years after his first his inauguration. (Photo: Department of Defense / U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Michael S. O’Neal)
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