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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol plunged his country into political turmoil this week after declaring martial law — a move that lawmakers almost immediately voted to nullify. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Managing Editor Bada Kim discuss the fierce backlash to Yoon’s actions and what it may mean for his political future.
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Week of Dec. 6-13
A Look Ahead
Dec. 7 – Notre Dame reopens to public
France’s Notre Dame Cathedral will reopen to the public Saturday following a five-year reconstruction and restoration project after a devastating fire ripped through the iconic landmark.
What’s happened so far
The Paris landmark was gutted by a fire during renovation work in 2019. Promises of donations quickly poured in and President Emmanuel Macron, capitalizing on the momentum, vowed to the French public that he would have Notre Dame rebuilt within five years. That promise has been kept, with the project to restore the cathedral coming in on time and under budget. A surplus of funding is now being earmarked for further restoration work expected to be completed over the coming years.
The impact
This weekend’s reopening ceremonies, a mixture of grand and solemn, will be conducted under high security. Saturday will see a ceremonial opening of the doors, led by the archbishop of Paris, and choral music, with a televised broadcast. The cathedral’s inaugural Mass will be held on Sunday morning with Macron and other dignitaries expected to attend.
Dec. 7 – Ghana election
Millions of Ghanaians will head to the polls Saturday to pick a new president and parliament amid the nation’s worst economic crisis in a generation.
What’s happened so far
Under the leadership of term-limited President Nana Akufo-Addo, Ghana grappled with soaring inflation, high unemployment, the weakening of the cedi currency and ballooning debt. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the West African nation defaulted on most of its $30 billion external debt, but it has since sought help from the International Monetary Fund and negotiated a 37 percent discount on $13 billion of debt in the largest restructuring of African debt to date. The country, once Africa’s fastest-growing nation, is the world’s No. 2 cocoa producer and recently saw its first increase in crude oil output after years of decline.
The impact
The two front-runners in the presidential race have both made economic issues central to their campaigns. Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who leads the incumbent New Patriotic Party, has committed to modernizing the economy and pledged to cap public spending, while former President John Mahama, the National Democratic Congress’s candidate, has promised to address the country’s cost-of-living crisis and amend the law to prevent the government from overborrowing. Alongside addressing kitchen table issues, the winner of election will be tasked with reforming the country’s cocoa sector after last season saw production reach a 20-year low.
Dec. 8 – Romanian presidential run-off
Voters in Romania will return to the polls Sunday to pick their next president in an election that could have widespread implications for the country’s relationships with both Russia and the West.
What’s happened so far
Far-right populist Calin Georgescu was the surprise top finisher in the first-round of voting on Nov. 24, with few expecting him to make the run-off, while center-right reformist Elena Lasconi took second, narrowly edging out incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. Georgescu’s strong performance as a “Moscow-friendly ultranationalist,” after poor polling in the lead-up to election day, raised suspicions of foreign interference — some pointed to a surge in views on his TikTok videos as key to his success — but the country’s top court validated the results Monday following a recount. While the ruling Social Democrats took the most votes in Sunday’s parliamentary elections and a pro-Western coalition government appears likely, far-right candidates also made significant gains.
The impact
A win by Georgescu would likely mark a stark shift in foreign relations between Romania and the West, with the country currently playing a key role in supporting Ukraine in its war effort. Romania has enabled the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea port of Constanta, and provided military support in the war with Russia.
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Dec. 8 – India’s defense minister to visit Russia
Russian state media says Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh is due to visit Moscow and Kaliningrad starting Sunday.
What’s happened so far
India and Russia are long-time allies, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi most recently visiting Moscow in July despite international isolation of Russia over Ukraine. India is attempting to balance relations with both Russia and the West, however, as Modi’s visit was soon followed by Defense Minister Singh’s visit to the United States in August.
The impact
Russian President Vladimir Putin is also set to visit India early next year, according to Indian media, pointing toward continued closeness between the two nations even amid international pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Dec. 8 – Pope Francis to appoint new cardinals
Pope Francis will hold a consistory to appoint new cardinals starting Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Pope Francis will create 21 new cardinals originating from around Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East and the Americas, in an effort to “reflect the universality” of the Catholic Church. At least five of the appointees are representatives of the institution in Latin America, the native region of the Argentinian pontiff. This consistory will be the 10th and largest since Francis’ election more than a decade ago.
The impact
The new appointments will consolidate Francis’ vision for a Catholic Church that includes voices from regions historically overlooked by the institution and will influence its future, including the election of the next pope after Francis’ death. Cardinals elect new popes by vote in a ceremony known as the conclave and after the new cardinals are appointed, the number of eligible voters will go from 122 to 142.
Dec. 9 – Netherlands to impose land border controls
The Netherlands will be the latest European country to start checks at land borders in the Schengen zone, beginning Monday.
What’s happened so far
In the November 2023 election, far-right leader Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom won the most seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives after campaigning on tougher immigration laws. It took months to install a coalition government, but one was finally sworn in in July with former intelligence chief Dick Schoof as prime minister. Last month, the government announced extra checks over the next six months at the German and Belgian borders to reduce “irregular migration” and human trafficking. It comes on the heels of Germany installing its own border checks in September. The checks will also be done on trains as well as some flights into the country described as “higher risk.”
The impact
The introduction of these checks are part of the Party for Freedom’s campaign promises, stating that the number of refugees coming into the country was too high. However, statistics show the number of asylum seekers is down 5 percent compared to the past two years. Despite the tough talk from the politicians, the government isn’t diverting extra resources to the police to conduct these checks. Several lawmakers in towns near the Netherlands’ 840 border crossings are critical of the plans, calling them impossible to implement.
Dec. 11 – France rail strikes
On Wednesday, all of France’s rail transport unions are set to go on strike with possible renewals if demands are not met.
What’s happened so far
Unions of France’s public railway company announced the strikes due both to the opening up of railway lines for competition in and outside of France and the proposed dissolution of the company’s freight transport. The latter is a result of negotiations with the European Commission over alleged illegal state aid given to the freight transport service between 2005 and 2016, with France agreeing to dissect it into two separate entities in January, rather than liquidation. The unions will strike starting Wednesday, with possible 24-hour renewals if changes are not made to the negotiations.
The impact
France’s transport strikes typically cause significant disruption, and travel times across France are expected to increase with substantial damage financially to both the company and France. With the holiday period looming, it is unclear if the strikes will continue until the Christmas period, affecting tourism.
What Else Matters
South Korea’s short-lived martial law
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol faces impeachment proceedings after a shock late-night declaration and subsequent lifting of martial law in a whiplash six hours across Tuesday and Wednesday. In an unscheduled live TV address, the president said martial law was needed to protect the country’s democracy from the opposition, which he labelled “North Korean communist forces” and “anti-state forces.” There was no actual threat from North Korea at the time, and the language instead appears an effort to garner support from far-right conservatives. The army chief was swiftly named martial law commander, and a six-point mandate followed, banning all political activity, protests and strike actions, and declaring all media under military control. But less than three hours after Yoon’s declaration, at least 190 lawmakers on both sides of the political divide pushed past the armed troops surrounding the National Assembly building in Seoul to vote unanimously to block his decision. Hours before dawn, Yoon again appeared on TV to say he would withdraw martial law in response to the vote. There was no apology or resignation.
Watch for: Schools and businesses opened as usual Wednesday morning and travel and in and out of the country remained uninterrupted, but Yoon’s political career is in shambles. Hundreds who gathered outside the National Assembly compound and the president’s home late Tuesday continued the protest well into Wednesday night, calling for the president’s ouster and arrest. There are also similar marches being reported in other parts of the country. Many of Yoon’s own aides, including the defense minister, have offered to resign en masse, and his own ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon has called for the entire cabinet to resign, as well as Yoon to be expelled. Six opposition parties have already filed a motion to impeach the president, and voting is set for Friday or Saturday, as it must take place within 72 hours of the bill being proposed. For the bill to be successful, a two-thirds majority is needed, and with the opposition controlling just 192 of the 300 seats, Yoon’s own party lawmakers will need to vote in favor.
Georgia anti-government protests
Demonstrations have gripped Georgia for the last week with regular clashes with police in the capital Tbilisi resulting in hundreds of arrests. Thousands of people have participated in the mass gatherings as people voice their anger at a statement made by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze on Nov. 28, where he announced talks on EU integration would be frozen until 2028. The statement stoked the ire of opposition leaders, many of whom regard the government as illegitimate, and triggered a wave of resignations from ministries. Kobakhidze has since sought to backtrack from his initial announcement on EU integration, stating on Sunday “we have not suspended anything,” and that “opposition lies” were to blame. The EU has condemned the violent suppression of protests around Georgia, and independent media has recorded dozens of attacks on journalists and the detention of opposition figures.
Watch for: Georgia’s government faces a legitimacy crisis as the opposition refuses to accept the results of the parliamentary election and international calls grow for a new vote to be held. Talks on Georgia’s accession into the EU had been frozen by the bloc earlier this year over the adoption of laws that were perceived as mirroring repressive Russian legislation. At present, the Georgian government is showing no signs of making any concessions and continues to violently disperse protests and blame the EU for attempting to “blackmail” the country. The upcoming Georgian presidential election on Dec. 14 will likely be the next trigger for mass protests in the country, as Georgian Dream seeks to replace opposition President Salome Zourabichvili.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Dec. 6-13
Dec. 7
- Ghana election
- Notre Dame reopens to public
Dec. 8
- Pope Francis to appoint new cardinals
- Romania election runoff
- India’s defence minister to visit Russia
Dec. 9
- Netherlands to impose land border controls
Dec. 11
- France rail strikes
Dec. 14-20
Dec. 14
- Georgian presidential election
Dec. 15
- Pope Francis to visit Corsica
Dec. 16
- Hunter Biden sentencing
- German government to hold vote of confidence
Dec. 18
- Federal Reserve meeting
Dec. 20
- Current U.S. spending package expires
- Boeing layoffs begin
Dec. 21-27
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
- Hanukkah begins
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
Dec. 28-Jan. 3
Dec. 29
- Chad parliamentary elections
Dec. 31
- New Year’s Eve
Jan. 1
- New Year’s Day
Jan. 2
- Bail hearing of Monk Chinmoy Das in Bangladesh
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Top photo: France’s Notre Dame caught fire in April 2019, and the flames destroyed the cathedral’s wooden roof and caused the spire to collapse. (Photo: GodefroyParis / Wikimedia Commons)
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