Factal
In our final podcast of 2024, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss a series of targeted assassinations in Russia, including the recent killing of a top Russian general in Moscow via an IED planted on a scooter, plus more on winter weather impacting U.S. holiday travel, some European countries scrambling ahead of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s gas industry, Syria’s Damascus Airport possibly reopening and South Korea’s Constitutional Court holding a hearing on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Our next episode will be out Jan. 9, 2025.
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- 0:00 Intro
- 0:54 Top Russian general killed in Moscow blast – an interview with Factal Senior Editor Alex Moore
- 7:04 Great Lakes winter storm and holiday travel
- 8:28 European gas buyers rush to find U.S. sanctions workaround
- 9:43 Damascus Airport possible reopening
- 11:02 South Korea court begins Yoon impeachment hearing
- 12:42 Next episode out Jan. 9, 2025
- 13:02 Credits
These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Ahmed Namatalla and Bada Kim. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Factal Forecast podcast transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Dec. 19
In this week’s Forecast we’ve got a Russian general assassinated in Moscow, winter weather impacting U.S. holiday travel, some European countries scrambling ahead of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s gas industry, Syria’s Damascus Airport possibly reopening and South Korea’s Constitutional Court holding a hearing on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Top Russian general killed in Moscow blast
Information compiled by James Morgan and Alex Moore; Interview with Alex Moore
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent killing of a Russian general in Moscow. For more on that we’ve got the lead for our Europe desk, Senior Editor Alex Moore.
JIMMY: Hello, Alex.
ALEX: Hello, Jimmy.
JIMMY: Alex, this is our last podcast for 2024 and I’m grateful you’re here, not just because you’re a great guy and all, but because you’ve got a pretty crazy story to brief us on. So, let’s just jump into that. What went down in Moscow?
ALEX: Yeah, so what took place was the targeted assassination via IED planted upon a scooter outside of an apartment complex of a Russian general that oversaw, essentially, the country’s biological, chemical, radiological weapons and safety units. So, the Ukrainian SBU – their military intelligence – they don’t actively ever claim these sorts of attacks, but they will leak to local media, and then foreign media, their involvement, which they did very quickly. The Russians, of course, pinned the blame quickly on the Ukrainian SBU as well. And yeah, this was the latest in a string of, sort of, targeted assassinations of these higher-level Russian military figures over the past month. The first one was in Crimea outside of Stevastopol, where a Black Sea fleet commander was also killed via an IED attack. And then just last week, a higher-level engineer at a Russian cruise missile design bureau, that’s a state enterprise, was shot and killed outside of Moscow. So there has been another uptick over the past month in these sorts of targeted attacks that are attributed to the Ukrainian SBU.
JIMMY: Well, what’s the latest? There been any new developments since this all went down?
ALEX: Yeah, today, the Russians claim to have arrested a 29-year-old Uzbek national who was allegedly working on behalf of the Ukrainian SBU to carry out the attack, as well as, interestingly, planting a camera to livestream the explosion, which according to the Russians was streamed directly to this person’s handlers in Dnipro in Ukraine. And that video has proliferated widely. The US did deny any involvement in this, as they will always do for these sorts of attacks taking place – well, really any attack taking place in Russia outside of more recently, of course, ATACMS strikes. But they will always deny involvement in these sorts of targeted assassinations of higher-level Russian military figures.
JIMMY: Well, assassinations always draw all sorts of reactions, but what are some of the more notable ones you’ve seen?
ALEX: Yeah, you know, like choosing this person specifically to target, a lot of it could have simply been opportunity based, right? But you never fully know what goes into those decisions. But interestingly, Ukraine has accused Russia of using internationally banned chemical weapons almost 5,000 times during the war in Ukraine. I mean, I think anybody that follows the conflict knows that in some ways, you can sort of characterize it as World War One-style trench warfare with FPV drones. And Moscow has employed chemical weapons, according to Ukraine, but also international legal observers have also verified the usage of things like tear gas, which are banned internationally, and there are more advanced chemical weapons that Russia has also allegedly used. I don’t want to mispronounce it, but chloropicrin – I’m sure my chemist mother would object to my pronunciation there – but this has been something that Moscow has been accused of time and time again since the outbreak of the full invasion. So choosing to target a high-level general that directly oversees the implementation of these chemical weapon orders is definitely notable, and that’s come up, I think, in a lot of the discussion surrounding why this specific person was chosen as a target.
JIMMY: Well, considering this attack and then, as you said, the recent spate of attacks, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?
ALEX: Yeah, I mean, obviously these – this sort of spate of attacks, and this trend continuing, is notable, especially when it takes place, you know, in Moscow or St Petersburg. You know – and we’ve seen St Petersburg be the site for targeted SBU attacks as well. There was a bombing at a cafe, for example, in the summer of 2023 that was attributed to the Ukrainian SBU. And doing those at these sort of Russian population hubs does sort of pop the bubble of the air of normalcy in these areas where they’re able to sort of disconnect themselves and remain largely apathetic. I’m speaking here about the Russian body politic. They can remain apathetic to what’s taking place in Ukraine. And obviously this has become a war that is largely characterized as being a total societal war for Russia, in the sense of their economy being so fully reoriented toward a war footing, the full extent to which men are willfully signing up for contracts to go fight in Ukraine at massive numbers. But that said, if you’re in St Petersburg or Moscow, you’ve always been able to maintain this air of normalcy and just kind of put it out of sight, out of mind. But this obviously brings, you know, what is extremely active and deadly interstate war that has a casualty toll of approximately a million people to Russia, where it otherwise is usually not fought. And drone attacks to that, too, obviously, but any sort of attacks like this that are able to sort of pop that air of normalcy in Moscow and St Petersburg are notable on the population front for Russia. Obviously, Russia will huff and puff and, you know, vow retaliation, possibly that could come in the form of more Oreshnik strikes – the new intermediate-range ballistic missile that they’ve employed a couple of times. And President Putin is delivering his annual marathon year-end press conference later this week, so this could potentially be something that he touches upon there and we will see.
JIMMY: Well, Alex, we’ll pause there then for today, but thank you for getting us caught up. I know you’ll be keeping an eye on the war for us in the weeks ahead and I appreciate it.
ALEX: Awesome. No worries.
Great Lakes winter storm and holiday travel
Information compiled by Theresa Seiger
JIMMY: A record number of people are expected to travel across the U.S. this holiday season.
But, starting today, forecasters will be keeping an eye on some potentially wintry weather, especially in the Midwest and Northeast.
A fast-moving storm system known as an Alberta Clipper is headed for the Great Lakes region. It could bring widespread snow to spots like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Additionally, the National Weather Service says a blast of arctic air could chill parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic beginning tomorrow.
And over on the West, Northern California’s coast might see some serious rainfall, thanks to a series of atmospheric rivers moving east.
Now, wet and icy conditions can make for slippery roads – not exactly what you want during a season already associated with an increased risk for serious car crashes.
And if you’re flying, you may also face some challenges.
Bad weather is still the top reason for air traffic delays in the U.S., which means there’s a chance of flight delays or cancellations.
Still, AAA projects a record 119.3 million people will be traveling domestically between this Saturday and New Year’s Day.
About 90% of those people will be hitting the road, while 7.85 million are planning to fly.
So, whether you’re going by car or hopping on a flight, you’ll want to pack your patience and keep an eye on the forecast.
European gas buyers rush to find U.S. sanctions workaround
Information compiled by Alex Moore
JIMMY: European countries that rely on Russian gas are scrambling.
They need to find a solution by tomorrow before a surprise round of new U.S. sanctions aimed at the massive Russian gas industry take effect this week.
The sanctions are targeting Gazprombank. That’s the big player in Russian gas payments and the main way European countries pay for their Russian gas.
It’s also the last remaining major Russian financial institution untouched by sanctions imposed in the wake of the full invasion of Ukraine.
Now, even though Europe’s been working to diversify its energy sources, it remains a significant export arena for Russian gas and supplies and countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Austria are threatened by the sanctions.
It doesn’t help that Europe’s already dealing with questions about Russian gas supplies. That, as Ukraine’s agreement to let Russian gas transit through its territory to Europe is set to expire on New Year’s Eve.
One potential workaround might be a sanctions waiver that lets Russia continue exporting gas to Europe through Turkey’s TurkStream pipeline.
That network’s become a significant conduit for European imports of Russian gas since Nord Stream operations stopped and transit through Ukraine has dropped off.
Damascus Airport possible reopening
Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla
JIMMY: Syria’s Damascus International Airport may resume scheduled flights on Tuesday.
That’s when the suspension notice from the country’s civil aviation agency is set to expire.
Scheduled passenger flights have been halted at all Syrian airports since Dec. 8, when Islamist militants swept into the capital and ended President Bashar al-Assad’s 24 years in power
And while the rebels seized power without much resistance from regime forces, much of the nation’s facilities were shut down because they were run by Assad’s deposed government
Travelers caught up in the upheaval posted videos of airport staff, security, and passport personnel abandoning their posts as the only system of governance the country has known for decades fell.
So, what does reopening the airport mean? For one, it could give exiled Syrians a way to return home. We’re talking about one of the largest refugee populations in the world.
It would also allow foreigners trapped by the conflict to finally leave.
Beyond that, restarting flights would also symbolize a relative return to normalcy and public order desperately sought by Syria’s new leaders.
Leaders who claim they will introduce democratic rule and work to shed the country’s reputation as an international pariah under Assad.
South Korea court begins Yoon impeachment hearing
Information compiled by Bada Kim
JIMMY: South Korea’s constitutional court will hold its first public pretrial hearing next Friday on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol.
It all kicked off on Dec. 3, when Yoon made a shocking late-night announcement declaring martial law.
Opposition lawmakers didn’t waste any time, and quickly filed impeachment motions against him.
The first vote failed, however, after all but three ruling party MPs boycotted the vote.
But the tide turned after daily nationwide mass protests and widespread media condemnation.
By December 14, all 300 lawmakers participated in a second vote, and Yoon was officially impeached.
Right now, Yoon’s presidency is on pause. He’s suspended while the constitutional court decides his fate, and he’s not allowed to leave the country.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is serving as acting president.
Now, the constitutional court – currently composed of six judges – has six months to decide whether to strip Yoon of his presidency or to reinstate him in office.
Still, they are under immense public pressure to deliver a quick ruling on Yoon. There are daily protests outside the court, both in favor of and against Yoon.
Yoon isn’t required to attend the pretrial hearing and he’s not expected to attend.
Separately, Yoon is also being investigated by police, prosecutors, the National Assembly, and the anti-corruption office for possible insurrection charges tied to his brief declaration of martial law.
Presidential immunity doesn’t cover these charges, which means that if charged, he could be facing life imprisonment or the death penalty.
JIMMY: One final note for you, with the holiday and New Year coming up, the podcast will be off for a couple of weeks. So our next episode will be out January 9th.
In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on X, Bluesky, or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Alex Moore, Ahmed Namatalla and Bada Kim. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2024 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Russian general Igor Kirillov in a Russian Ministry of Defense photo
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