Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
After more than a year of fighting and thousands of deaths, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon went into effect on Wednesday. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss the fragility of the situation as well as what it means for the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Nov. 29-Dec. 6
A Look Ahead
Nov. 29 – Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi will meet Friday with his counterparts from France, Germany and Britain.
What’s happened so far
The meeting comes days after the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution — proposed by France, Germany and Britain, with support from the United States — condemning Iran for its perceived failure to cooperate with international inspections of its nuclear program. In response, Iranian officials said the country would step up its nuclear activities, raising concerns that it could intensify efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon amid broader tensions in the Middle East.
The impact
Friday’s talks will cover nuclear and regional issues, including Israel’s war in Gaza, and have been described by Iranian officials as an extension of meetings held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The talks are believed to be aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal that unraveled after then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the agreement in 2018. Trump, who is preparing to return to the White House in January, has expressed a willingness to reach a new deal with Iran due to the threat posed by the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Nov. 30 – Iceland parliamentary elections
Iceland will elect a new government Saturday after the 7-year-old ruling coalition, made up of parties from both the left and right wing, collapsed over disagreements in multiple areas of policy, including immigration, trade and climate.
What’s happened so far
The center-left Samfylkingin (Social Democratic Alliance) and the center-right Viðreisn (Liberal Reform Party) sit at the top of polling, trailed by the conservative-populist Miðflokkurinn (Center Party), left-populist Flokkur fólksins (People’s Party) and the center-right Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (Independence Party). Outside of politics, authorities are preparing for the possibility that inclement weather could delay the electoral process, including by delaying counting or postponing voting in affected precincts entirely.
The impact
The two parties at the top of the ticket have aligned political positions in a number of areas. For one, both the Samfylkingin and the Viðreisn are pro-European, indicating that closer ties with Brussels may be in the cards and portending a shift in attitudes toward the bloc, with both parties’ leaders making cautious statements indicating possible progress on full membership. Both parties also voted against a controversial immigration measure last year that stripped social safety net provisions from rejected asylum seekers after 30 days.
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Nov. 30 – Taiwan’s president to visit Pacific allies
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is set to depart on his first official overseas visit starting Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Beijing has been seeking to assert military, political and economic influence over the Pacific Islands. In January, shortly after Taiwan’s general election, Nauru re-established diplomatic relations with Beijing, leaving Taiwan with only 12 formal diplomatic allies. According to Taiwan’s Presidential Office, Lai will arrive at the Marshall Islands on Dec. 3, followed by visits to Tuvalu and Palau before returning to Taipei on Dec. 6. While few details were released regarding Lai’s tour, it is routine for Taiwanese officials’ diplomatic visits to include “stop-overs” in the United States, the country’s main diplomatic and military supporter, despite the lack of official recognition. Specifics of the trip are likely to only be confirmed last minute due to fear of China interfering. According to Reuters, Lai is likely to transit in Hawaii and Guam, both home to major U.S. military bases.
The impact
While the trip is seen as crucial to solidifying support of Taiwan’s allies in the region, analysts will also be keeping an eye on China as the trip will likely anger Beijing. In August of last year, China staged military drills around Taiwan after then-Vice President Lai stopped over in the United States on his way to and from Paraguay.
Dec. 1 – OPEC+ meeting
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus other oil-producing countries will meet Sunday.
What’s happened so far
OPEC+ members will meet online this weekend in order to discuss further delays to plans to raise production output. The plans to gradually increase oil production by an estimated 2.2 million barrels per day have already been delayed multiple times as prices have steadily drifted downward as fears of a regional war in the Middle East have subsided.
The impact
The delayed production increases are indicative of the waning influence and fracturing of OPEC+, which has failed in its quest to permanently raise the price of oil in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in part due to handling by U.S. President Joe Biden. This has resulted in frustration among some OPEC+ countries, such as the UAE and Iraq, which have been producing well above agreed upon ceilings, as well as Angola, which decided to leave the cartel. Over the long term, investors are banking on lower oil prices due to a confluence of factors, including lower demand and Brent Crude futures selling for lower.
Dec. 1 – New EU commission takes effect
On Sunday, the new EU commission under President Ursula Von der Leyen is set to begin its five-year mandate.
What’s happened so far
Following weeks of debate and infighting between the inner parties of the EU Parliament over the six executive vice-presidents of the 20 other commissioners, most notably Italian right-wing Raffaele Fitto for EU affairs minister, all appointed commissioners were given the green light by the parliament. This is the first time since 1999 that all commissioners are approved and set to work on tackling climate change and clean energy, a white paper on the continent’s defense, as well as agriculture and AI policies.
The impact
The main debates between the EU’s top political parties largely focused on the Italian right-wing candidate and the appointment of Spain’s Teresa Ribera set to work on competition and climate. For her acceptance, Ribera answered questions from the Spanish parliament over her ecological transition ministry’s management of the deadly flooding in Valencia. With the commission now approved, commissioners can begin their five-year tenure responding largely to climate change, competition and EU defense over the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Dec. 1 – VW workers plan strike
A union for German automotive manufacturing giant Volkswagen is threatening a strike beginning Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The main union representing workers at Europe’s largest carmaker is threatening strikes across German plants after talks over wages and factory closures failed to progress. Negotiations come after Volkswagen announced its first-ever factory closures in Germany amid economic stagnation and increased competition from abroad.
The impact
Nearly half of Volkswagen’s 300,000 employees in Germany are represented in the talks, and unions have proposed a willingness to accept wage cuts in order to keep factories open. Despite this, the looming threat of the first large-scale strike action at Volkswagen since 2018 remains. The strikes come within the backdrop of Germany’s early federal elections expected to be held early next year, in which the country’s continued economic contraction will likely play a major factor.
Dec. 2 – California governor calls special legislative session
In response to President-elect Donald Trump’s win, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is convening a special session of the state legislature on Monday, intended to bolster legal protections on issues Newsom and Trump don’t see eye-to-eye on.
What’s happened so far
Newsom called for the special session soon after it became apparent Trump would win the election, citing California’s past disputes with the first Trump administration’s on reproductive freedom, immigration and clean vehicle policies as reasons to act proactively. Trump responded with threats to fight what he calls “insane policy decisions” on voter identification and water distribution policies in the state.
The impact
The new session is intended to provide additional funding to the California Department of Justice and other executive branch agencies to “support the ability to immediately file affirmative litigation” to challenge the incoming Trump administration. Democratic leaders in the state are on board, but Republican legislators are denouncing the act as a “shameless political stunt.”
What Else Matters
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
U.S. President Joe Biden announced Tuesday evening that Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement. The parties agreed to a complete halt of arms that began at 4 a.m. local time Wednesday morning. Both Israel and Hezbollah, however, conducted extensive cross-border attacks in the few hours before the ceasefire, including dozens of airstrikes on central and southern Beirut. The 14-month war has killed more than 4,000 Lebanese and dozens of Israelis.
Watch for: Aside from a cessation of the fighting, the agreement stipulates that the Israeli army will retreat from southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah withdrawing fighters north of the Litani River, approximately 18 miles from the border. The Lebanese army, alongside the United Nations and other third-party states, will have 60 days to ensure the full demilitarization of the southern zone. Approximately 1.2 million people have been displaced, and thousands began this week to fill the highways of Lebanon to return to the towns from which they fled. Monitors will be on the look out for possible breaches of the ceasefire during these large displacements. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Gaza continue as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned in a speech Tuesday that Israel’s focus could now shift to eliminating Hamas and addressing Iran.
Russia’s medium-range ballistic missile launch
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia launched a new experimental medium-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21. At the time of the launch, the Ukrainian Air Force described the weapon as an intercontinental ballistic missile, the use of which would have been a battlefield first. Putin, however, later specified that this was not the case and that the military had tested the medium-range, nuclear-capable “Oreshnik” missile. He has since ordered the new weapon to be put into production and said tests will continue on the missile, which was described by the Russian military as being able to strike targets throughout Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decried the attack as an “international crime” and appealed to countries to condemn the escalation. The test launch has been perceived as the Kremlin’s response to the United States, United Kingdom and France granting Ukraine permission to use long-range weapons on Russian territory as Ukraine struggles to contain Russian advances across the frontlines. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Ukraine has launched American-made ATACMS missiles and U.K.-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at its territory since getting the green light from western allies.
Watch for: While Putin’s claims the new Oreshnik missile cannot be intercepted remain unsubstantiated, its use on the battlefield marks a new escalation in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia has previously used short-range Iskander ballistic missiles, which are limited to a range of 500 kilometers, while this new medium-range system would allow Russia to strike targets anywhere in Ukraine with very little warning. Expanded use of the weapon would allow Russia to double-down on strikes targeting Ukraine’s already weakened energy infrastructure at a time when energy consumption is increasing due to the onset of winter. Likewise, Ukraine’s use of long-range western weapons will increase its capability to strike targets in Russia’s Kursk region where the Russian military recently deployed approximately 10,000 North Korean troops in an effort to oust Ukrainian forces from the region.
Pro-Imran Khan protests in Islamabad
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party called off protests early Wednesday after multiple days of pro-Imran Khan demonstrations in Islamabad ended with a crackdown from security forces. PTI officials said that security forces used excessive force as videos of indiscriminate firing flooded social media, but police denied that live ammunition was used to clear protesters. Protesters had gathered on Sunday to demand the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has been in jail since August 2023. Prior to Tuesday night’s clashes and crackdown, at least six people were reported to have been killed, including four paramilitary soldiers and two protesters.
Watch for: Although PTI has temporarily called off the protests, PTI leader and Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Ali Amin Gandapur said protests will continue until Khan calls them off. Khan himself is due to appear before an anti-terror court over charges of inciting workers to act violently in an earlier protest. Although the party has yet to announce any future plans for protests, Khan supporters are unlikely to let up in their efforts to free their leader. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the country, which has been embroiled in political and economic crises for several years, cannot afford for the protests to continue.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 29-Dec. 6
Nov. 29
- Spain’s ruling PSOE federal convention
- Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva
Nov. 30
- Iceland snap elections
- Taiwan’s president to visit Pacific allies
Dec. 1
- OPEC+ meeting
- Ukraine loan disbursements could start
- New EU Commission takes effect
- VW workers plan strike
Dec. 2
- California governor calls special legislative session
Dec. 3
- Italy Vega-C rocket launch
Dec. 4
- Hunter Biden to be sentenced
Dec. 5
- Sentencing of Memphis officer in Tyre Nichols case
Dec. 7-13
Dec. 7
- Ghana election
Dec. 8
- Pope Francis to appoint new cardinals
- Notre Dame reopens ot public
Dec. 9
- Netherlands to impose land border controls
Dec. 11
- France rail strikes
Dec. 14-20
Dec. 14
- Georgian presidential election
Dec. 15
- Pope Francis to visit Corsica
Dec. 16
- Hunter Biden sentencing
- German government to hold vote of confidence
Dec. 18
- Federal Reserve meeting
Dec. 20
- Current U.S. spending package expires
- Boeing layoffs begin
Dec. 21-27
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
- Hanukkah begins
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
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Top photo: Iranian officials, pictured above in Tehran in 2019, will meet with their counterparts from three European countries on Friday for nuclear deal talks. (Photo: Omid Vahabzadeh / Fars)
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