Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of November 15 – 22
A Look Ahead
Nov. 14 – Biden expected to visit Amazon rainforest
Biden expected to visit Amazon rainforest: President Joe Biden will travel to Peru and Brazil beginning Thursday to meet with local leaders and attend two summits.
What’s happened so far
During the first leg of the trip, Biden will meet Peruvian counterpart Dina Boluarte and attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Lima. The second leg of the trip will be split in two phases. Biden will travel to Brazil’s Amazonas state, where he will visit the rainforest and meet other leaders, including representatives from local Indigenous groups, to discuss the preservation of the region. His tour will finish in Rio de Janeiro, where he will meet Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to discuss issues such as economic growth and workers’ rights and will attend the G20 summit on global hunger, poverty and climate change.
The impact
Biden will be the first sitting U.S. president to visit the Amazon and he will do so at the end of his term, before President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second term in January. The visit is part of bilateral efforts between Brazil and the U.S. to repair relations, which soured during the presidency of far-right Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro between 2019 and 2022, and which again could come under strain amid a a shift in U.S. environmental policies during the upcoming Trump administration.
Nov. 16 – Gabon holds referendum
Gabon, an oil-rich West African nation of 2.4 million people, will vote on a new constitution Saturday, a little over a year after the military toppled President Ali Bongo, ending his family’s more than five decades in power.
What’s happened so far
Since Bongo’s ouster in August 2023, Gabon’s military leaders have yet to meet promises to schedule presidential elections within two years or take other steps to transition to civilian rule. The proposed constitution would consolidate power with the president by eliminating the office of the prime minister and allow current military leader Gen. Brice Nguema to run for office. It stipulates a seven-year presidential term renewable once.
The impact
The draft constitution was unveiled last month, leaving little time for debate before the referendum. The rushed timeline, in addition to the absence of a strong opposition movement, could pave the way for approval and set up Nguema’s ascension to elected leader, similar to military takeovers in other African nations over the past decade, including Chad and Egypt. That would likely prompt the lifting of suspensions triggered by the coup, including African Union membership and U.S. economic aid.
There is a rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Nov. 17 – Russian opposition protest in Berlin
Leading figures of Russia’s opposition in exile, including Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of deceased leader Alexei Navalny, have announced a protest in the German capital Sunday calling for the removal of President Vladimir Putin.
What’s happened so far
Since the alleged murder of her husband in February earlier this year, Navalnaya has said that she will continue his work and recently announced she would run for president if given the opportunity. Many of the most prominent figures in the Russian opposition have rallied behind Navalnaya, including the recently freed Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza. Among their demands, they cite the removal of Putin, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the release of all political prisoners from Russian jails. In Russia, repressive legislation and heavy-handed policing mean the right to protest is virtually nonexistent, while many political dissidents outside the country have been branded extremists and had arrest warrants issued against them in absentia.
The impact
Russia’s opposition in exile continues to recover after the death of de facto leader Navalny at the hands of the Russian authorities in an Arctic Circle prison. The protest will serve as a test for Navalnaya and her ability to unite Russia’s fractured opposition in exile and offer a viable alternative to Putin’s Russia. President Putin remains completely unopposed, having exiled the most important opposition figures in the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War in August. The move likely sought to undermine the legitimacy of the opposition, given that, as Ilya Yashin stated, “the voice of opposition in prison always has much more weight than the voice in emigration.” The protest in Berlin is likely to draw significant numbers and trigger solidarity protests in cities around the world calling for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Nov. 17 – Senegal parliamentary election
Senegal will head to the polls Sunday after the government called for snap-elections.
What’s happened so far
Senegal’s incumbent President Bassirou Diomaye Faye dissolved the country’s opposition-led National Assembly in September, in a move intended to pave the way for early legislative elections. Faye accused former President Macky Sall’s Benno Bokk Yaakar opposition platform of blocking attempts at passing the budget law and other reforms in the assembly, arguing that a new election might change the balance of power.
The impact
Analysts believe Faye’s African Patriots of Senegal party has a high probability of securing a majority of the votes in Sunday’s election, after he received 54 percent of the votes to become Africa’s youngest leader just two weeks after being released from prison. Sall, who is leading a newly formed opposition coalition from abroad, is now set to return as a candidate despite supporters of Faye’s government, including current Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, suggesting he should be brought before the courts.
Nov. 19 – UK farmers protest
British farmers are expected to launch protests against the imposition of a new tax Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Backlash has been brewing in the British agricultural community over plans to extend an inheritance tax targeting agricultural properties. The inheritance tax plan intends to impose a 20 percent tax on inherited farms worth more than £1 million ($1.28 million) which has prompted warnings from the farmer’s union chief to expect a “militant” response.
The impact
As part of the protest response, farmers are expected to descend upon London on Tuesday to hold a protest in the Westminster area. Protest actions could reportedly also escalate and extend to include port blockages or refusals to provide produce. Some farmers, however, would prefer to avoid the financial drawbacks of withholding produce from the market.
Nov. 20 – AI safety summit
High-level American officials hope to address concerns about unregulated artificial intelligence with a summit planned in San Francisco beginning Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The International Network of AI Safety Institutes launched in May, when several countries including the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, South Korea and the EU agreed to align on standards and share resources regarding harmful use of AI. In September, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo announced the first-ever summit of the network, saying the country is committed to “pulling every lever” on regulation.
The impact
This comes at a time when governments are concerned about the ability to use AI to create election-related forgeries, including AI-generated photos of Taylor Swift and her fans showing support for then-candidate Donald Trump, which the president-elect shared on social media. However, opponents argue that too much regulation might slow innovation of the technology. It’s possible that the Trump administration could take that viewpoint and stop all restrictions on AI in the country.
Nov. 22 – WHO to convene emergency meeting on mpox
WHO to convene emergency meeting on mpox – The World Health Organization will convene a meeting of its emergency committee on Friday to assess whether mpox, a painful infectious disease that continues to spread in a number of countries, remains a global health crisis.
What’s happened so far
In August, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared mpox a “public health emergency of international concern,” the highest alert level, following the spread of a variant in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a number of other African countries. Mpox, an illness caused by the monkeypox virus, causes a number of symptoms including a rash, painful swelling of the lymph nodes and fever.
The impact
The designation of mpox as a public health emergency of international concern requires nations to act to prevent spread and the designation must be reviewed by the WHO’s emergency committee every three months. This will be the first meeting of the committee since the declaration. It will review the current epidemiological situation and consider whether to change guidelines. The African Union’s health watchdog noted that the spread of the virus in some areas has slowed slightly.
What Else Matters
Spain flooding
A second DANA storm system arrived in Spain’s peninsula earlier this week, forcing regional governments to suspend classes, close down health centers and restrict mobility to prevent further loss of life. The storm comes after October’s system, which left at least 223 people dead and 17 missing across the country’s Catalonia, Andalusia, Valencia and Balearic Islands regions (member’s link). Flash floods brought by the first isolated high altitude depression swept several towns on the banks of El Poyo Ravine on the outskirts of Valencia’s capital, causing millions of euros in damages on properties, businesses and infrastructure. This week’s system forced the evacuation of thousands of people from their homes on the banks of Malaga’s Guadalhorce River on Wednesday as a preventative security measure. This second DANA is expected to hit the worst affected areas in Valencia region again at the end of the week amid ongoing clean-up and reconstruction efforts. Meteorologists say the storm should degrade in the coming days.
Watch for: The impact of the first DANA storm system on Valencian towns triggered nationwide protests with Spaniards criticizing government response. A brief episode of violence was recorded on Nov. 3 when Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Valencia President Carlos Mazón, King Felipe VII and Queen Letizia were pelted with mud and stones during a visit to the affected towns. A chain of poor political decisions and the unpreparedness of the Valencian regional government, together with the historical overlooking of environmental risks in urban planning triggered protests to demand Mazón’s resignation. The sentiment has been capitalized by far-right groups that spread misinformation on social media after the disaster. At least nine lawsuits have been filed before Spain’s Supreme court against central and regional government officials for their handling of the emergency, an indicator that political disaffection and polarization could dominate the Spanish agenda in the coming months.
Gang Violence in Haiti
A spike in Haitian gang violence in which international flights were targeted above the Port-au-Prince airport led the Federal Aviation Administration this week to order a 30-day suspension of flights from American carriers to Haiti. On Monday, bullets hit flights operated by Spirit, JetBlue and American Airlines, injuring a Spirit flight attendant. The spike has coincided with instability in the country’s government, with the country’s temporary transnational council replacing Prime Minister Garry Conille with Alix Didier Fils-Aime earlier this week. Haiti’s gangs have exploited the chaos, most notably in the town of Pont-Sondé, where 70 people were killed in early October. In Port-au-Prince, violence has largely centered around the neighborhood of Solino, where the powerful Viv Ansamn gang has burned homes and displaced hundreds. Haiti’s insecurity has also lead to vigilante attacks, as seen earlier this week when crowds targeted a Doctors Without Borders ambulance and killed two suspected gang members.
Watch for: Haiti’s national security forces lack the firepower to combat the gangs, but the recently deployed Kenyan soldier — bankrolled by the United States— have proved more successful. Additional Kenyan soldiers will be deployed to Haiti in the coming months, giving some hope that the security situation will improve, even if the newly elected Trump administration has not committed to continue funding the Kenyan mission. Ultimately, many observers believe Haiti’s gangs will continue to rule most of the country and achieve some form of legitimate power during negotiations for a new constitution in the future.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 16 – 22
Nov. 16
- Gabon referendum
Biden to visit Amazon rainforest
Nov. 17
- Senegal parliamentary election
- Russian opposition protest in Berlin
Nov. 19
- UK farmers’ protest against inheritance tax plan
Nov. 20
- US to convene global AI safety summit
Nov. 22
- WHO to convene emergency meeting on mpox
Nov. 23 – Nov. 29
Nov. 23
- India’s Maharashtra election
Nov. 24
- Uruguay presidential runoff
Nov. 25
- India Parliament’s winter session to begin
Nov. 27
- Indonesia regional elections
Nov. 29
- Spain’s ruling PSOE federal convention
Nov. 30 – Dec. 6
Nov. 30
- Iceland snap elections
Dec. 1
- OPEC+ meeting
Ukraine loan disbursements could start
Dec. 2
- Netanyahu to take stand in corruption trial
Dec. 3
- Italy Vega-C rocket launch
Dec. 4
- Hunter Biden to be sentenced
Dec. 7 – 14
Dec. 7
- Ghana election
Dec. 8
- Pope Francis to appoint new cardinals
Dec. 9
- Netherlands to impose land border controls
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Top photo: President Joe Biden met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on February 10, 2023. Biden will travel to Peru and Brazil this week. (Photo: Adam Schultz / White House)
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