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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
A Marburg virus outbreak underway in Rwanda has left at least 13 people dead and dozens more ill. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss the expected travel impacts related to the situation and why the outbreak could have implications for the upcoming U.S. election.
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Week of Oct. 11-18
A Look Ahead
Oct. 11 – Mexican judicial workers set to end general strike
On Friday, Mexico’s judicial workers and staff are preliminary set to end a nearly two-month-long strike over judicial reform.
What’s happened so far
On Aug. 21, judicial workers went on strike against the proposed reform pushed by former Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The law, which creates a system of elections to vote in judges by popular vote, has already been passed by Mexico’s Congress on Sept. 15, when protesters against the reform stormed the building during the vote. Amid the continued strike, the Supreme Court has accepted judges’ calls for consultation and is expected to review the reform’s constitutionality, with critics arguing it threatens independence of the judiciary.
The impact
While the judiciary strike was extended until Friday, it was made clear during the judiciary vote that the strike cannot continue indefinitely. Whether it is extended again this week is yet to be seen, but the Supreme Court’s decision to review the reform seems to be a positive for the law’s critics. Recently inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum has defended the law’s passing and has said regardless of the Supreme Court’s decision, there will be judicial elections in the near future.
Oct. 12 – Zelenskyy to present “victory plan” at Ramstein meeting
On Saturday in Germany, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will outline Kyiv’s opening proposal to end the war with Russia.
What’s happened so far
Zelenskyy, who described the proposal as “clear, specific steps for a just end to the war,” will present the plan to Ukraine’s allies in Germany at a recurring meeting between Ukraine and NATO allies at the U.S. air base in Ramstein. Direct and realistic diplomatic discussions between Kyiv and Moscow have been a rarity since Russia launched its full invasion nearly 1,000 days ago and talks aimed at reaching a broad ceasefire arrangement have been nonexistent since the first weeks of the war.
The impact
Russia has continued to pursue maximalist war aims and has cratered multiple lower-level agreements throughout the course of the war, including repeatedly bombing agreed upon humanitarian corridors as well as striking Ukrainian port infrastructure. Ukraine for its part has also maintained an uncompromising position regarding the potential need to diplomatically cede areas conquered by Russia which amounts to more than a quarter of its territory, a number that continues to grow as Russia’s eastern offensives gain steam. While both sides posture to gain leverage in potential negotiations, including Ukraine’s operation to occupy parts of Russia’s Kursk region, the staggering casualty toll estimated at more than one million people provides further credence to the notion that a diplomatic solution will ultimately be needed to freeze the conflict.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
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Oct. 13 – Former Taiwan president to visit Prague
Taiwan’s former president Tsai Ing-wen will speak at the Forum 2000 conference in the Czech capital starting Sunday.
What’s happened so far
This trip will mark Tsai’s first overseas trip since stepping down in May. Tsai, who Beijing has long opposed and called “separatist,” remains an influential political figure in Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. The former head of state is set to deliver a speech at the three-day forum focusing on freedom, democracy and human rights. Confirming the visit, Tsai’s office calls the Czech Republic “a close partner in economic and cultural cooperation with shared values.” Like most overseas visits by Taiwanese officials, the announcement of the trip has been kept relatively low-profile, with little details disclosed, likely due to the risk of Beijing interfering. According to Reuters, Tsai is also likely to visit France and Belgium during the upcoming Europe trip. Taiwan’s presidential office said President Lai Ching-te fully supports Tsai’s visit and that he hopes to deepen bilateral relations between Taiwan and Europe.
The impact
While the Czech Republic has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Prague has significantly increased its engagement with the island country since 2020, including more frequent parliamentary visits and collaboration in establishing a semiconductor research center earlier this year. With Tsai no longer in office, the trip is likely to bear more symbolic value than substantive results. Nevertheless, as China disapproves of any official exchange between Taiwan and other countries and has in the past imposed economic sanctions against those deemed “too friendly” with the Beijing-claimed island, analysts say a similar response to Tsai’s Europe trip would not be surprising.
Oct. 14 – U.S. airports to begin screening for Marburg virus
Starting on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control will begin screening for a potentially deadly virus amid an outbreak in Rwanda.
What’s happened so far
Last month, Rwandan health authorities first confirmed 26 cases of Marburg virus, including six fatalities. It is the first time the virus has been detected in the country. Marburg is a viral hemorrhagic fever that comes from fruit bats and is similar to Ebola. It spreads through contact with bodily fluids, unlike coronavirus. It comes on the heels of similar outbreaks last year in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania. Since Rwanda’s first announcement, there have been at least 58 confirmed cases with 13 deaths. The United States moved quickly, announcing it would reroute all travelers who had been in Rwanda recently to airports in Chicago, New York or Washington, D.C., where they will undergo public health entry screening. Although there are no approved vaccines or treatments for Marburg virus, Rwanda is taking this opportunity to test some out. A U.S.-based non-profit sent 700 doses of a trial vaccine for health workers.
The impact
Although the Marburg virus has been around for decades, outbreaks are now occurring more and more frequently. Experts attribute that partly to climate change and deforestation, saying people are now more likely to come across animals that can pass the disease onto them. That means screenings like these will become more and more frequent as a way to keep diseases from spreading.
Oct. 14 – Second phase of polio vaccination campaign in Gaza
The World Health Organization has sent a request to Israel to allow for the second round of vaccinations against polio in the Gaza Strip, set to begin on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The disease returned to the Gaza Strip after being free of polio for 25 years following Israel’s continued destruction of water and waste management infrastructure. This, as well as crowded living conditions in makeshift refugee camps, aided the spread of the highly contagious disease. Around 560,000 children were vaccinated in the first round of the campaign that ended in mid-September and, although there were some security incidents involving Israeli forces, the campaign was largely deemed to have been safely executed.
The impact
United Nations spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said the aim is to vaccinate approximately 640,000 children across the Gaza Strip and distribute vitamin supplements. According to reports from the WHO, aid agencies will ask Israel to allow for a similar scheme as in the first round where Israel and Palestinian militants agree to “tactical pauses” of fighting. Health authorities will likely assign a specific area for the humanitarian pause on a rotation basis for approximately nine hours to allow for the “safety of the communities and health workers.”
Oct. 14 – U.K. holds international investment summit
The United Kingdom will host an international investment summit on Monday as part of the government’s growth strategy.
What’s happened so far
The first international summit held by Keir Starmer’s government since Labour won the general election in July will feature the participation of up to 300 industry leaders, including representatives of U.S. tech giant Google and sponsorship by financial entities such as Lloyds Bank, HSBC and Barclays. The event will feature speeches from Alphabet President Ruth Porat and Brookfield Asset Management Chief Executive Bruce Flatt, among others.
The impact
The event aims to attract foreign investment into the country to facilitate the government’s economic growth agenda amid an ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Prime Minister Starmer has expressed that this summit will be an opportunity to demonstrate the government’s long-term plans to stabilize and grow the economy and secure business partnerships. Reports suggest that a new cross-government investment agency in the works, with the collaboration of the Department of Business and Trade, the Number 10 and other government offices, could be unveiled during the summit.
Oct. 15 – Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Islamabad
Leaders from several Eurasian countries, including the Russian and Chinese prime ministers, will convene in the Pakistani capital on Tuesday for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
What’s happened so far
Pro-Imran Khan protests have shut down life in Islamabad and neighboring Rawalpindi over the past week and with more planned over the next few days, local authorities have tightened security measures in the lead up to the summit. Security concerns have also been exacerbated by a BLA attack on Chinese nationals in Karachi on Sunday.
The impact
Pakistani officials have accused Imran Khan and PTI of sabotaging the summit through its protests. Often seen as the Eurasian counterpart to NATO, the SCO summit being held in Islamabad gives Pakistan a chance to demonstrate its vitality in the organization.
Hurricane Milton
More than 3 million people are without power across Florida and search and rescue efforts are underway after Hurricane Milton made landfall late Wednesday near Siesta Key in Sarasota County as a “extremely dangerous” Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. More than 5.5 million residents were under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders in the lead up to the storm, with multiple fatalities confirmed late Wednesday in St. Lucie County, Fla., following a tornado outbreak. Both air and rail travel were still experiencing significant impacts as of Thursday morning.
Watch for: Just weeks after Hurricane Helene brought strong tropical storm-force winds alongside storm surge and flooding in the Tampa area, the region now faces a lengthy recovery from Milton, with Tropicana Field converted into a 10,000-person base camp to support first responders and cleanup efforts. Federal resources are already stretched thin with FEMA assisting those still feeling the impacts of Helene, Debby, and Idalia.
Extratropical Storm Kirk
Storm Kirk, formerly Hurricane Kirk, began in a remote part of the tropical North Atlantic last week, but has taken a dramatic turn toward Europe. The storm grew to be a Category 4 hurricane while far off the shores of Bermuda, but has weakened significantly. Kirk is now expected to cross much of the North Atlantic and bring heavy rain and wind to western Europe, an extremely rare occurrence for a hurricane originating in the Caribbean. Spaghetti models show that the storm could impact European coastlines anywhere between Portugal and the United Kingdom, with major effects likely to be felt in western France.
Watch for: Kirk has yet to make landfall anywhere, but the system did bring significant coastal swells and rip currents to the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Canada. Wind speeds of up to 80 mph are possible in France and northern Iberia, and flood warnings were in place for 34 departments across France for Wednesday. Europe’s major storm season typically extends through the winter from October to March, causing billions of euros in damage every year.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 11-18
Oct. 11
- Mexican judicial workers set to end general strike
Oct. 12
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to present “victory plan” at Ramstein meeting
Oct. 13
- Former Taiwan president Tsai to make Prague visit
Oct. 14
- U.K. holds international investment summit
- WHO aims to begin second phase of polio campaign in Gaza
- U.S. airports to begin screening for Marburg virus
Oct. 15
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Islamabad
Oct. 17
- European Central Bank meets
Oct. 19-25
Oct. 19
- British Columbia elections
Oct. 20
- Kurdistan elections
- Moldova presidential elections
Oct. 22
- BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia
Oct. 26-Nov. 1
Oct. 27
- Uruguay general elections
- Israeli Knesset returns from summer recess
- Brazil municipal elections second round
Oct. 30
- Botswana elections
Nov. 2-8
Nov. 5
- U.S. presidential election
Nov. 7
- Federal Reserve meeting
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Top photo: On Saturday in Germany, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will outline Kyiv’s proposal to end the war with Russia. (Photo: President of Ukraine)
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