Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Factal’s Forecast podcast will return with Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas next week.
Week of Aug. 9 -16
A Look Ahead
Aug. 9 – Philippines and Vietnam hold first joint maritime exercises
Forces from a pair of southeast Asian countries will take part in military drills in Manila Bay on Friday amid bilateral efforts to strengthen maritime cooperation.
What’s happened so far
Both countries signed agreements to improve communication and collaboration between their coast guards in January, during a state visit to Hanoi by Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The goal of the drills is to prevent incidents and de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea, over parts of which both countries have filed claims before the UN. The territory is also disputed by China, which claims almost its entirety, and Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. In addition to being a strategic area for trade routes, part of the South China Sea is also believed to have abundant natural gas and oil deposits (member’s link).
The impact
A Philippine-Vietnamese crew will be trained aboard a Vietnamese vessel on search and rescue operations, as well as fire, explosions and communications exercises. Members of both coast guards are expected to tour each other’s ships and hold talks. Both countries have said the drills are a move in the right direction toward regional peace and stability amid ongoing efforts to resolve their overlapping territorial claims. The Philippines, which holds good defense relations with the United States, announced earlier this year its intention to reinforce security alliances in the region to defend its territorial interests in front of China’s escalating rhetoric.
Aug. 11 – Olympics closing ceremony
The Stade de France in Paris will host the closing ceremony of the Summer Olympic Games on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Taking place after the final athletic event of the games — the women’s marathon — the Stade de France will have an athlete’s parade, as well as theater-style performances from artists, acrobats and performers. The opening ceremonies sparked outcry from religious conservatives, who claimed parts of the event mocked Christianity.
The impact
While security measures have prevented significant disruptions to the games themselves, public transportation was severely affected by vandalism and sabotage right before the opening ceremonies, and fiber optic lines were also impacted by targeted attacks during the first weekend. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said Wednesday she will not attend the ceremonies, protesting the judging in the women’s gymnastics floor exercise final that saw two of her country’s competitors fail to medal.
Aug. 12 – US ban on Russian-enriched uranium begins
The “Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act,” a bipartisan U.S. ban on the import of Russian uranium products, enters into force Monday.
What’s happened so far
The bill, signed into law in May by President Joe Biden, bans the importation of Russian uranium while simultaneously seeking to revive domestic uranium enrichment by appropriating billions of dollars in funding. Though entering into force this week, the law includes a waiver to import Russian uranium through the beginning of 2028 for special exemptions.
The impact
Along with the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, this bill represents another significant stimulus into the U.S. domestic nuclear fuel chain industry while the import ban seeks to fundamentally restructure the global market for the enrichment process. In 2022, Russia possessed nearly half of all global enrichment capacity and accounted for a quarter of U.S. uranium imports with Canada and Kazakhstan marking the other main imports. As such, the act seeks to help catalyze a fundamental shift in U.S. domestic uranium production capacity.
Aug. 12 – Palestinian President Abbas visits Russia
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be in Moscow on Monday for his first visit to Russia since 2021.
What’s happened so far
The three-day trip will end Wednesday with a meeting with President Valdimir Putin, which will largely attempt to strengthen bilateral relations between the two and open discussions over the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, days after the assassination of Hamas senior official Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The impact
Speaking to RIA Novosti, Abbas said Russia continues to have considerable influence in world politics, including the UN Security Council, and so the Palestinian president will seek to include Russia and Putin in its sphere. With Russia also improving its relations with Iran, it is yet to be seen what role it will play in possible ceasefire negotiations with Israel
Aug. 14 – Thai court to rule on potential dismissal of PM Srettha
Thailand’s Constitutional Court will hand down its ruling Wednesday on a case seeking the dismissal of current Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
What’s happened so far
Dozens of Thai senators petitioned the Constitutional Court to dismiss Srettha over the ministerial appointment of controversial politician Pichit Chuenban, who was sentenced to six months in prison in 2008 for contempt of court over allegedly attempting to bribe court officials. They contend Pichit was not qualified for the position and claim Srettha breached the law by appointing him. The upcoming ruling follows another consequential Constitutional Court decision last week that dissolved the popular opposition Move Forward Party.
The impact
If Srettha is dismissed, a new government would need to be formed, which could mean a shakeup in the parliament’s governing alliance, a shuffle in cabinet positions and a realignment of policies and priorities. With the remaining parliament members belonging to the now-defunct Move Forward Party expected to form a new party this week, political upheaval seems likely to continue in Thailand.
Aug. 16 – Trump election subversion case pretrial meeting
For the first time in seven months, former President Donald Trump’s legal team will appear in Judge Tanya Chutkan’s courtroom on Friday over his actions leading up to the January 6 Capitol attack.
What’s happened so far
In Aug. 2023, Special Counsel Jack Smith accused Trump of conspiring to defraud the United States over claims of election fraud. However, the Trump legal team appealed to the Supreme Court, claiming presidential immunity. Last month, the Supreme Court found a president has absolute immunity for acts within their constitutional role as well as a presumption of immunity for “acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility.” Now, Chutkan will need to rule if Trump’s actions were “official acts” or conduct that can be prosecuted.
The impact
Because of the Supreme Court ruling, anything Trump said to a federal government official cannot be used as evidence in the case. However, Chutkan may decide his call to Georgia Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger was an unofficial act and not covered by the recent ruling. Regardless, the timing of the case may interfere with Trump’s campaign schedule. Chutkan could opt to move quickly and try to get the case in front of a jury before the election. It could also coincide with Trump’s Sept. 18 sentencing after he was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels.
What else matters
Bangladesh political instability
More than 400 people were killed in weeks of protests across Bangladesh before Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down and fled to India, relinquishing her combined 20 years of power over two stints in office. The students leading the protests, spurred by economic inequality, demanded an end to earmarking a large chunk of civil government jobs for descendants of veterans of the war of independence in 1971. The courts have since cut the quota down and authorities have agreed to several protest demands, including dissolving parliament and naming Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus as the leader of the interim government.
Watch for: The appointment of the interim government hinges on consultations across a fractured political spectrum, including parties whose leaders were imprisoned by Hasina. The situation on the ground remains volatile, with a high risk of clashes between law-enforcement and the public. Hundreds of inmates remain at large after an attack on a district jail in Satkhira. The insecurity has extended to communal clashes, including deadly attacks against Hindus and their places of worship as well as Ahmadis. Steps forward remains unclear amid fears that the army and the police are limiting accountability to face-saving changes at the top, though a senior military officer associated with the violent response to the protests has reportedly been prevented from leaving Bangladesh.
UK violent unrest
Multiple cities across the United Kingdom have seen riots over the past week with hundreds of people arrested in the wake of the murder of three girls in Stockport by a 17-year-old from Wales. After the attack, far-right accounts on social media disseminated posts falsely claiming the suspect was a Muslim asylum seeker, fueling anti-immigrant sentiment. Subsequent protests descended into violence, targeting mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers. Rioters set fire to buildings and repeatedly clashed with police, leaving dozens of officers injured, and more incidents expected over the coming days. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has condemned the ongoing unrest as “far-right thuggery” and the government has put courts on standby and freed up extra prison space to cope with the influx of arrests.
Watch for: The U.K. government has criticized social media platforms for their failure to control the spread of misinformation and disinformation fueling the ongoing violence across the country. In particular, Downing Street has focused on comments posted by the owner of X, Elon Musk, stating “civil war was inevitable” under a video of violent riots in Liverpool. Police across the country are bracing for further unrest and mosques are being offered new emergency security as the new Labour government faces its first test since assuming power last month.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 9-16
Aug. 9
- Ruling on undersea electricity cable linking Greece, Cyprus and Israel
- Philippines and Vietnam maritime exercises
Aug. 11
- Olympics closing ceremony
- US ban on Russian-enriched uranium imports begin
Aug. 12
- Palestinian President Abbas to visit Russia
Aug. 14
- Thai court to rule on potential dismissal of PM Srettha from office
Aug. 15
- Nomination deadline for Sri Lanka elections
- Claudia Sheinbaum to receive official recognition as Mexico’s president-elect
Aug. 17-23
Aug. 17
- Nusantara officially be inaugurated as the capital of Indonesia, replacing Jakarta
Aug. 18
- SpaceX resumes astronaut launches
Aug. 19
- Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago
Aug. 22
- Reported U.S.-Chinese trade talks
Aug. 23
- Planned S&P Global review of Kenya’s sovereign credit
Aug. 24-30
Aug. 24
- Ukraine’s Independence Day
Aug. 26
- Indonesian military hosting Super Garuda Shield 2024
Aug. 28
- 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris
Aug. 31-Sept. 6
Aug. 31
- 66th session of Mexico’s Congress convenes
Sept. 1
- Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election
Sept. 6
- NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
Thanks for reading! If you’d like the Factal Forecast in your inbox, you can sign up for free.
Top photo: A Philippine Coast Guard ship is seen during exercises with Japan and Indonesia in June. On Friday, the country will host new military drills with Vietnam (Photo: CGPAS)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.