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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The WHO declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern last week amid an upsurge in the infectious viral disease in the DR Congo and a growing number of countries in Africa. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss recent cases outside of Africa and why health authorities say the outbreak is “not the new COVID.”
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Week of Aug. 23-30
A Look Ahead
Aug. 23 – Indian PM visits Ukraine
Narendra Modi will be in Kyiv on Friday, marking the first time an Indian prime minister has visited Ukraine since the two established diplomatic relations in 1992.
What’s happened so far
Modi’s trip comes just six weeks after he was in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where he called on Russia and Ukraine to resolve their conflict through diplomatic means in the wake of a Russian strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv that left at least 31 people dead. That meeting drew condemnation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who called it a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.”
The impact
The Indian government has attempted to maintain strong ties with both Russia and Ukraine, with Modi’s remarks last month serving as his strongest rebuke to Putin since the start of the war. Modi, however, has stopped short of condemning the invasion, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain a stance that placates both sides as the conflict drags on.
Aug. 23 – Fed Chair Powell gives economic outlook
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to hint at cuts to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
What’s happened so far
For the past several years, the Fed has kept interest rates high in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic as a way to fight inflation. At 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent, the Fed interest rate is the highest it has been in 23 years. Now, officials are confident inflation is slowing down but have become increasingly concerned with rising unemployment rates. Last month’s jobs report was well below expectations and showed a jobless rate of 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021.
The impact
Every move the Fed makes in an election year will be scrutinized. If the Fed is overdue on cutting rates, it could lead to a sharp increase of the unemployment rate. That may mean a full percentage point of rate cuts by the end of the year. The prospect of cuts has already led to a drop in mortgage rates but nowhere near the rates of people who bought homes during the pandemic, which could keep home prices high due to a lack of supply.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Going to GSX? See the latest from Factal at booth 2355.
Aug. 24 – Ukraine independence day
Ukraine will commemorate its independence from Russia on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Ukraine will celebrate 33 years of independence from Russia this week after Kyiv attempted to break free from centuries of colonization and subjugation at the hands of Moscow in 1991. Those attempts would prove fleeting, however, and this will correspondingly mark the third independence day celebrated during Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine that ultimately failed to once again colonize Kyiv but has resulted in approximately 20 percent of the country occupied.
The impact
Analysts fear Russia will once again launch a missile barrage on Ukraine’s independence day as it did during the 2022 celebration that killed nearly two dozen people. This year’s celebration will also take place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s stunning offensive into Russia’s Kursk region that has fundamentally altered the war’s battle space. While Ukraine consolidates its advances into Kursk, however, the situation along the eastern Donbas front looks increasingly dire with steady Russian advances threatening to envelop Ukraine’s logistical hub of Pokrovsk that authorities have begun to evacuate this week.
Aug. 26 – U.S. Open begins
On Monday, New York City will host the 144th edition of the U.S. Open, one of the four tennis grand slams across the world.
What’s happened so far
More than 950,000 people visited New York City in 2023 during the tennis tournament. This year, the women’s and men’s finals will take place on Sept. 7 and 8 respectively. Bouncing back from wins in the Cincinnati Open, favorites Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka will seek to continue their hardcourt victory run, and several other tennis players are seeking the grand slam win, with Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alacaraz also favorites.
The impact
In the run-up to the first round of tennis played on Monday, qualifiers will continue across the week, with the U.S. Open Fan Week also taking place. Security in the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens will be heightened throughout the tournament.
Aug. 26 – Indonesia’s Super Garuda Shield 2024
Indonesia will host joint military exercises starting Monday, featuring at least 19 countries, including the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea.
What’s happened so far
Indonesia’s Super Garuda Shield is a large-scale military exercise held annually in the southeast Asian country since 2009, intended to “safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific region.” The event has grown into one of the region’s largest multinational military exercises, with heavy U.S. involvement.
The impact
While China likely views Super Garuda Shield as a threat to their regional influence, Indonesia and China maintain relatively friendly relations, even recently discussing potential joint military training between the two countries.
Aug. 28 – 2024 Summer Paralympics begin
The Paris 2024 Paralympic Games will begin Wednesday and will last until Sept. 8
What’s happened so far
The opening ceremony for the Paralympic Summer Games will begin at 8 pm local time with a parade along Champs-Elysées, in the center of the French capital. Up to 184 international delegations, including athletes and officials, will participate in the event. The opening ceremony will be televised and access to the venues will be adapted for athletes, other participants and spectators.
The impact
At least 4,400 paralympic athletes will compete in 549 events through the course of the games. Up to 75,000 police officers, soldiers, private guards and members of other European security forces sent to France to collaborate with its security operation will be deployed during the competition. An Olympic Intelligence Center was also set up prior to the Olympic Games in order to reinforce national security.
What Else Matters
Mpox outbreak
On Aug. 13, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared the outbreak of a new mpox variant a “public health emergency of continental security” after a new strain began spreading across more than a dozen African countries. This was quickly followed by the World Health Organization which, a day later, declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern. Formerly known as monkeypox, the disease is of zoonotic nature, meaning it can be transmitted from animals to humans. Although not usually fatal, it poses serious risk for those who are immunocompromised. Common symptoms including fevers and lesions on the skin. It is believed to have originated in central and west Africa, with DR Congo declaring it an epidemic in December 2022 and reporting tens of thousands of cases as of June this year.
Watch for: Sweden was the first country to record a case of the new mpox variant outside of Africa after an individual was diagnosed in the Stockholm area with the much deadlier Clade 1 strain on Aug. 15. Mpox has not reached pandemic level as of yet, and EU authorities have ruled out introducing block-wide border control measures as the risk for the wider population remains low. Health authorities, however, recommend people follow similar basic hygiene precautions as during the coronavirus pandemic.
India protests
Thousands of Indian women and healthcare workers have taken to the streets to demand action against sexual violence following the Aug. 9 rape and murder of a physician trainee at a Kolkata hospital. While a local police-affiliated volunteer has been arrested for the crime, the victim’s name remains confidential under Indian law. The victim’s family members say they believe multiple people were involved, and the Indian federal police have taken over a broad investigation of the hospital. Demonstrations began outside the site of the crime at RG Kar Hospital in Kolkata and crested into a comprehensive doctor’s strike across the country on Saturday. Thousands of healthcare workers have either quit outright or are only seeing emergency patients since the strike began. Some protests have been met with police crackdown, resulting in dozens of people arrested, vandalism and rail blockades.
Watch for: Reformers are hoping to address India’s relatively low female workplace participation, which stands at 37 percent compared to the global average 47 percent. India has seen a worrying 20 percent increase in reported rapes between 2021 and 2022. While a previous high-profile rape case in 2012 lead to stricter laws against sexual violence, doctors are currently demanding new workplace protections and the expansion of the death penalty for rapists. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made comments condemning sexual violence and the country’s Supreme Court has assembled a task force to collaborate on new workplace safety regulations for doctors.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 23-30
Aug. 23
- Planned S&P Global review of Kenya’s sovereign credit
- India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Ukraine
- Fed Chair Powell gives economic outlook
Aug. 24
- Ukraine’s Independence Day
Aug. 26
- Indonesian military hosting Super Garuda Shield 2024
- U.S. Open begins in New York
Aug. 28
- 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris
Aug. 31-Sept. 6
Aug. 31
- 66th session of Mexico’s Congress convenes
Sept. 1
- Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election
Sept. 5
- Hunter Biden criminal tax trial
Sept. 6
- NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
Sept. 7-13
Sept. 10
- Jordan parliamentary elections
- ABC News presidential debate
Sept. 11
- MTV Video Music Awards
Sept. 14-20
Sept. 17
- Possible Fox News presidential debate
Sept. 18
- CNN vice presidential debate
- Federal Reserve Meeting
- Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir
- Trump hush money case sentencing
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Top photo: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on Friday, just over a month after he visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. (Photo: India Prime Minister’s Office)
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