Dave Clark
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
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A Look Ahead
April 18 – China’s Xi ends Southeast Asia trip
On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping will conclude his three-nation tour visiting China’s closest neighbors amid trade tension with the United States.
What’s happened so far
According to China’s state media, Xi’s first overseas trip this year is aimed at strengthening China’s relationship with its closest neighbors, namely Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, as well as reaffirming the country’s role in promoting peace and development in Southeast Asia. Xi landed in Vietnam after the United States hiked tariffs on China and froze duties for everyone else for 90 days. While Vietnam has signalled an interest in deeper cooperation with China on defense, security and infrastructure, according to comments by party chief To Lam in Chinese state media, the details of some 45 signed agreements remain undiclosed. Xi is also expected to discuss a free trade deal with Malaysia and in-depth cooperation with Cambodia.
The impact
While this rare trip by Xi and top Chinese officials was meant to showcase Beijing’s influence in Southeast Asia, it has now become an opportunity for Beijing to shore up ties with countries in the region against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Analysts say Beijing may seek to deepen regional ties through promises of greater investment and expanded market access for its neighbouring countries. Southeast Asian countries are likely to simultaneously seek exemption of tariffs from Washington and deepen ties with Beijing to avoid picking a side in the U.S.-China competition.
April 19 – Iran nuclear talks continue in Rome
A second round of talks between Iranian and American officials is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday after a first “positive” meeting in Oman last week.
What’s happened so far
Not a lot of details came out from April 12’s meeting between Iran and the United States in Muscat, Oman, with officials only saying that talks were “positive” and “constructive”. President Donald Trump has threatened military action if no agreement is reached, while Iran’s foreign minister has said his country would “never accept coercion” including any kind of military buildup.
The impact
If the officials fail to reach a deal, Trump has warned air strikes could be launched targeting Iran’s nuclear program. On the other hand, Iran has suggested its uranium supply could be used to develop a nuclear bomb. Meanwhile, the Iranian foreign minister will visit Russia for consultations ahead of the talks with Washington, and UN nuclear watchdog chief will travel to Tehran on Wednesday to meet Iranian senior officials.
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April 19 – Nationwide protests planned against Trump
A new nationwide anti-Trump protest is set to take place across the United States on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Protest organizers have called for demonstrations against what they describe as an “executive overreach” by the Trump administration. The call for renewed protest action follows a mass nationwide demonstration on April 5, over what pro-democracy protesters describes as a “power grab” by President Donald Trump and top aide Elon Musk. More than 500,000 people are estimated to have participated in more than 1,000 protest events across the country against mass layoffs, immigration crackdowns and the government response to the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, among other issues.
The impact
This week’s organizers hope to congregate more than 11 million people, 3.5 percent of the U.S. population, on Saturday, to prove the existence of a strong organized opposition movement in the country. The exact locations for the protest events are yet to be disclosed, but significant disruption near government buildings and on roads is to be expected. Large-scale protests are likely to be called periodically by opposition groups in the coming months.
April 21 – Thailand discusses tariffs with United States
Leading Thai economic officials will travel to the United States to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs Monday.
What’s happened so far
The meeting, which will take place in Washington, D.C., will involve Thailand’s finance and commerce ministers as they discuss the imposition of steep 36 percent tariffs on Thai goods by the Trump administration. With the United States representing Thailand’s largest export market, the tariffs threaten severe economic consequences with officials in Bangkok indicating they could lead to a percentage point drop in its growth this year.
The impact
Thai officials have already indicated a willingness to slash a 73 percent import duty on American-produced corn as well as purchase more Boeing planes for Thai Airways and buy more American liquified natural gas in an effort to present the Trump administration with a tariff off-ramp. The meeting with Thai officials comes amid a flurry of trade negotiations in the wake of Trump’s tariff announcements that roiled markets, with White House officials claiming deals are close with up to 10 countries.
April 21 – U.S. vice president expected to visit India
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is expected to begin a four-day visit to India on Monday, marking his first trip to the country since entering office.
What’s happened so far
The trip, which has not yet been confirmed by White House officials, is expected to happen weeks after U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard became the first high-ranking Trump administration official to visit the country. Earlier reports indicated that White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz would also travel to India to meet his counterpart in the country and participate in the India-U.S. Forum. But the plans have reportedly been postponed as Waltz deals with ongoing fallout from revelations last month that sensitive U.S. military plans were discussed in a group chat that included a journalist on the messaging app Signal.
The impact
Vance is expected to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior officials during his trip, which will reportedly also include visits to Agra and Jaipur with his wife, who is the child of Indian immigrants. Experts expect Vance to assure the Indian government of the Trump administration’s commitment to a new bilateral trade deal announced in February amid uncertainty sparked by tariffs. In recent weeks, India has reduced import duties on some 8,500 industrial items, including American bourbon whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as tariff negotiations continue. Officials expect a new bilateral trade agreement to be signed by the United States and India by the fall, with terms of reference for talks already finalized and face-to-face discussions expected to begin next month.
April 22 – Myanmar ceasefire ends
A fragile ceasefire struck in the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Myanmar is set to expire Tuesday with the country’s ruling military condemned for flagrant breaches.
What’s happened so far
A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck near Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, in the early afternoon of March 28, killing thousands of people and causing major structural damage to many buildings across the region, including many of the country’s monasteries. In the aftermath of the earthquake, rebel groups unilaterally declared a ceasefire with the ruling junta’s State Administration Council agreeing to a truce. Myanmar’s military, which has ruled through a junta since it seized power in 2021, has been condemned for breaking the agreement with reports of dozens of attacks against rebel forces.
The impact
Efforts to secure a lasting ceasefire continue with Malaysia’s Prime Minister and current ASEAN chair Anwar Ibrahim expected to meet with the head of Myanmar’s ruling military junta in Bangkok to press for an extension of the ceasefire.
April 23 – Japan PM, opposition chiefs to face off in debates
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will engage in one-on-one debates with opposition leaders on Wednesday to address growing concerns over the detrimental effect of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy.
What’s happened so far
The United States has declared a 90-day hold on 24 percent levies on all imports from Japan, but a 10 percent universal rate remains in place as well as a 25 percent duty on all automobile shipments. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba said the country does not plan to make big concessions to the U.S. as tariff negotiations got underway with Washington this week. Domestically, tensions are high amid concerns over the devastating potential effect of tariffs on the Japanese economy, which is heavily reliant on exports to the United States.
The impact
Yoshihiko Noda, the head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has already petitioned the government to ask the United States if the imposition of tariffs violates a trade agreement struck with Japan during President Donald Trump’s first term in office, under which Washington pledged no further levies on Japanese vehicles. There are also likely to be questions surrounding the Japanese-American defense pact after criticism from Trump alleging the agreement is one-sided and Japan does not pay its way. The debates will likely escalate pressure on Ishiba’s administration to reach a swift agreement with Washington that ensures regional security and protects the Japanese economy without granting disproportionate concessions to the United States.
What Else Matters
RSF capture of Sudan’s Zamzam IDP camp
More than 300 people were killed and hundreds more injured in a four-day assault by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) beginning Thursday as it seized control of Zamzam, a major camp for displaced people just south of El Fashir in North Darfur, according to the UN and humanitarian organizations. The attack, which came after a similar assault in nearby Abu Shouk, destroyed shelters, markets, and the last functioning clinic in the camp, killing 10 Relief International staff members. Zamzam’s population has nearly doubled to almost a million people in recent years due to ongoing displacement. The UN now estimates up to 400,000 people have fled Zamzam and Abu Shouk since the assault, overwhelming the nearby El Fashir, where tens of thousands are now sleeping outdoors without food, water, or medical care.
Watch for: The RSF denies targeting civilians and claims the camp was used by armed groups allied with the Sudanese army, while releasing video of its deputy commander promising aid to displaced families. Still, rights groups warn of potential war crimes, as El Fashir — just 9 miles from Zamzam — faces growing instability. Local militias are urging army reinforcements to defend the city’s 1.5 million residents. Meanwhile, the RSF has stepped up drone strikes in army-held territory, including a hit on a key power station that cut electricity to Port Sudan. With famine worsening and humanitarian access shrinking, the fall of Zamzam signals a dangerous new phase in the Sudanese conflict.
Trump-El Salvador prison deal
Outrage is growing over the deportation of a man from Maryland to a notoriously brutal prison in El Salvador and the Trump administration’s unwillingness to help him back. 29-year-old Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a sheet metal worker and father of three, came to the United States illegally in 2011 and was arrested in 2019 but given some legal protection when a judge ruled he shouldn’t be sent back to El Salvador because he might face persecution there from local gangs. Numerous Trump officials have said the deportation was an error, but his adviser Stephen Miller and spokesperson Karoline Leavitt have claimed that’s not the case, without providing evidence. In an appearance in the Oval Office on Monday, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele also said he would not return Garcia.
Watch for: President Donald Trump reiterated that he wanted to send U.S. citizens to the prison in El Salvador and asked Bukele to “build five more.” He’s even floated sending people who attacked Tesla dealerships there. It is likely not legal to send U.S. citizens to another country for committing a crime, however the Trump Administration is showing that it won’t necessarily comply with the law when it comes to immigration.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
April 19-25
April 18
- China’s Xi ends Southeast Asia trip
April 19
- Stanley Cup playoffs begin
- Nationwide protests planned against Trump
- Iran nuclear talks expected to continue in Rome
April 20
- Easter
April 21
- Thailand to discuss tariffs with United States
- U.S. vice president expected to visit India
April 22
- Myanmar ceasefire ends
April 23
- Japan PM, opposition chiefs to face off in 1-on-1 debates
April 24
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hualien
April 26-May 2
April 28
- Canadian election
April 29
- National earthquake drill in Mexico
April 30
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Keelung
May 3-9
May 3
- Australia election
May 4
- First round of Romania presidential election
May 5
- Sean Combs’s sex trafficking trial
May 6
- Airport Security Middle East conference in Dubai
May 8
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hsinchu
May 10-16
May 12
- Philippine general election
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Top photo: China’s President Xi Jinping, pictured with Donald Trump in 2017, will take his first overseas trip of 2025 this week to visit Southeast Asia ami trade tension with the United States. (Photo: White House)
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