Dave Clark
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The Trump administration paused military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine this week as part of an effort to “ensure that it is contributing to a solution.” In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss reactions to the move and the impact the halt could have on Ukraine’s ability to hold off Russia. Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of March 7-14
A Look Ahead
March 8 – Western Australia state elections
Residents in Western Australia will vote Saturday in state elections for the upper and lower houses of parliament.
What’s happened so far
Western Australia’s Labor Party dominated the last statewide election in 2021, winning 53 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and a majority of seats in the Legislative Council, the upper house of the state’s parliament. Polling shows Labor maintaining a consistent lead over rival parties, the National and the Liberals, but down on record poll numbers that were boosted by a well-received handling of the state’s coronavirus pandemic response and recovery, which propelled it to a landslide victory. Voting is compulsory in this statewide election.
The impact
Though the results of this election have been touted as potentially a foregone conclusion, poll watchers will be looking for signs of a political shift away from the Australian Labor Party or whether it holds its ground ahead of an expected Australian federal election this year in which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would seek a second term for his Labor government.
March 9 – Canadian Liberals pick new leader
The next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will be announced on Sunday, with the victor becoming the country’s next prime minister until a federal election is held later this year.
What’s happened so far
Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is widely considered the front-runner to succeed Justin Trudeau, ahead of ex-finance minister Chrystia Freeland, one-time government House leader Karina Gould, and Frank Baylis, who previously served as a Montreal-area Member of Parliament. Nearly 400,000 party members had signed up to vote by the end of January, with more than 55,000 ballots cast within the first two days of voting.
The impact
After months of polling showed the Liberals well back of the Conservatives, the opening weeks of U.S. President Trump’s second term and early clashes with the Canadian government on tariffs and immigration have seen the ruling party surge back to a virtual tie in recent surveys. While the next election must be held by Oct. 20, the new leader may attempt to capitalize on recent momentum and call an election much sooner.
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March 10 – IMF’s Egypt loan review
The International Monetary Fund is set to give Egypt another loan disbursement worth $1.2 billion when its executive board meets on Monday, despite the North African country’s failure to meet conditions. According to the staff-level agreement reached in December, the lender agreed to soften its terms.
What’s happened so far
The Arab world’s most populous nation continues to struggle with high debt levels and inflation after more than a decade of unchecked military rule that consolidated control over economic activity. The government also went on a borrowing binge amounting to tens of billions of dollars to build mega projects with no clear return on investment, drawing criticism from international think tanks and local investors alike.
The impact
While IMF money is expected to provide temporary relief for the strained economy, it allows authorities to continue to avoid making structural changes such as reducing state and military ownership of businesses and allowing a flexible exchange rate. The country’s high debt levels are also increasingly entering the rhetoric of stakeholders in the Middle East as leverage to control its role in the Gaza war. Last month, centrist ex-Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid suggested debt relief for Egypt if it agrees to govern the Gaza Strip for 15 years. The United States, IMF’s largest shareholder, hasn’t yet drawn a connection between Egypt’s debt and President Donald Trump’s desire to expel Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.
March 11 – Greenland elections
The semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland will hold snap elections on Tuesday, Prime Minister Múte Egede announced in early February, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring the territory.
What’s happened so far
Greenland, a former Danish colony and a self-ruling island since 1979, was once again in the spotlight recently after Trump said it was an “absolute necessity” to acquire it. His remarks have ignited increased interest in full independence from Denmark, with officials arguing the island’s opportunities to officially participate in negotiations would be limited “until our country achieves the status of an independent state.” In the meantime, the parliament passed a law banning foreign or anonymous donations amid concerns of external influence during election campaigns.
The impact
Due to concerns over Trump’s comments, reports say ruling party Siumut plans to invoke an article granting Greenland the right to negotiate its full independence, as well as hold a vote on independence following the general election. All political parties have expressed they do not want the island to become part of the United States, and recent polling suggests some 85 percent of the population also rejects the idea. It is yet unclear how far Trump wants to take this issue, as he previously did not rule out using military or economic power to take over the resource-rich island.
March 12 – NASA Crew-10 mission launch
NASA is preparing to launch its next crew rotation mission to and from the International Space Station with a target date set for next Wednesday, finally paving the way home for two astronauts who have been stranded for months in space.
What’s happened so far
NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Willmore were only scheduled to spend about a week on the space station when they launched last June, but after hitting technical snags with Boeing’s new Starliner capsule and SpaceX production delays, they have inadvertently spent nine more months in orbit. Both Williams and Wilmore have said they are healthy and keeping busy, and have brushed off attempts to politicize their situation from President Donald Trump and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
The impact
Williams and Wilmore will spend about one more week on the station with the new Crew-10 mission to hand over operations and will then depart pending weather conditions at planned splashdown sites off the coast of Florida.
March 12 – U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in
Tariffs announced last month by U.S. President Donald Trump on imported steel and aluminum are set to go into effect next Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
During his first term in office, Trump placed a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum and a 25 percent tariff on imported steel, citing national security concerns. He allowed for some countries, including Mexico and Canada, to obtain exemptions to lift the duties. The import taxes remained in effect through the tenure of former President Joe Biden, with some new exemptions, despite a December 2022 finding from the World Trade Organization that the tariffs violated global trade rules. Less than a month after beginning his second term, Trump signed a plan to increase tariffs on aluminum to 25 percent and to end earlier exemptions on steel imports, saying the move would strengthen domestic manufacturing and level the playing field for global trade. The tariffs were among several announced by Trump in his first few weeks in office, including a 10 percent tax on imports from China – later raised to 20 percent – and tariffs of 25 percent on shipments from Canada and Mexico.
The impact
Economists predict that the tariffs are likely to raise inflation as American consumers are already grappling with higher prices. Numbers from the International Trade Association and the U.S. Geological Survey show that the U.S. imported about 26 percent of the steel it used in 2023 and, last year, 47 percent of the aluminum consumed domestically. Several industries that rely on those metals are expected to feel the impact of the tariffs. The Can Manufacturers Institute, a trade association, warned last month that 70 percent of the tin mill steel needed to make canned goods in the United States now comes from foreign sources. The group asked Trump to exempt all tin mill steel from the tariffs in order to keep American businesses competitive. Meanwhile, the import duties sparked retaliation from China and Canada, which both announced counter-tariffs. The measures come after Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25 directing authorities to investigate whether new tariffs on foreign copper are necessary.
March 14 – Serbian Parliament session on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
A simmering separatist conflict in the Balkans could bubble over into a full-fledged crisis during a special legislative session beginning Friday in Serbia.
What’s happened so far
After the breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, war in Bosnia left 100,000 people dead and millions displaced. The U.S.-brokered Dayton Accords in 1995 ended the war and created two regions, the Bosniak-Croat Federation and the Serb-run Republika Srpska. The country now faces one of its biggest crises since then. Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, has often called for the separation of his region, winning praise from Russia as well as the presidents of Serbia and Hungary. Things hit a fever pitch late last month when a court in Sarajevo convicted Dodik for his separatist actions, sentencing him to a year in prison and a 6-year ban from politics. He has rejected the court proceedings and the National Assembly of Republika Srpska acted fast to ban Bosnia’s central police and judicial authorities and passed a controversial Russia-style “foreign-agents” law.
The impact
Dodik’s actions could spark a constitutional crisis if Republika Srpska continues to roll back institutions that both regions share in Bosnia, such as police, military, and a tax administration. He is unlikely to spend time behind bars but the ban on political dealings could expedite things. His lawyers have indicated they will appeal the conviction even though he said he wouldn’t.
What Else Matters
U.S. pauses military aid to Ukraine
Washington has paused deliveries of military aid to Ukraine and the sharing of intelligence after last Friday’s heated exchange in the Oval Office between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Trump accused Zelenskyy of being disrespectful and ungrateful for U.S. support. Zelenskyy has since sent a letter to Trump expressing his regret at what transpired in the White House and his readiness to come to the negotiating table. The decision to pause aid impacts deliveries of ammunition, vehicles and other equipment and includes weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in Poland. Ukraine’s Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee said pausing aid helps Russia and suggests Trump is pushing Ukraine to capitulate. The Kremlin hailed the move as “the best contribution to peace.”
Watch for: The Trump administration’s attitude toward Zelenskyy has become increasingly hostile over recent weeks, suggesting he is illegitimate and obstructing the peace process. While Trump said he appreciated Zelenskyy’s renewed pledge to work on a peace deal, it is unclear how far this will go toward satisfying the White House. The move to suspend aid and halt intelligence sharing marks a significant escalation as the Trump administration drastically increases pressure on Kyiv at a time when Ukraine is already struggling to hold back Russian advances with dwindling resources. In the near term, Ukraine will be forced to rely on its own stores of ammunition and aid from Europe, while an extended suspension risks endangering Ukraine’s ability to defend its key cities and carry out targeted strikes on Russian territory.
Gaza ceasefire extension
Phase 1 of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire ended Saturday, and although the second phase was set to begin immediately after – which, among other points, would have seen the release of the remaining Israeli captives and the full withdrawal of the Israeli military from the Gaza Strip – there has been no indication that the two parties have moved on to Phase 2. Instead, Israel accepted a proposal introduced by U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff aimed at extending Phase 1 by an additional 50 days, during which half of the Israeli captives would be released at the start and the remainder at the end of this stage. Hamas has refused to accept the extension, arguing that the extension violates the agreement, and reaffirmed its commitment to the timeline as agreed upon in January. In response, Israel proceeded to close all border crossings and halt the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip.
Watch for: Analysts suggest Hamas is unlikely to accept a ceasefire extension in the near future without guarantees it would lead to a permanent ceasefire and a full withdrawal of the military. Meanwhile, members of the Israeli government have been adamant on wanting to resume the war on Gaza, with sources suggesting Israel is looking to bring back as many captives as possible without committing to an end of the warfront in Gaza. Although there hasn’t been an engagement in arms similar to what was happening prior to the ceasefire, Palestinian authorities have documented what they say are more than 200 violations by Israel in the Gaza Strip that have led to the death of more than 110 people since the ceasefire came into effect on Jan. 19. The fear now hangs with any possible major violation on either side that would see a return of Israeli strikes on the Palestinian territory.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
March 7-14
March 7
- SXSW starts in Austin
- Switzerland to host conference on occupied Palestinian territories
March 8
- Western Australia state elections
March 9
- Liberal Party of Canada leadership vote
March 10
- IMF schedules Egypt loan deal 4th review
March 11
- Greenland election
- China 2025 parliamentary meeting will close
March 12
- U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in
- Crew-10 mission will launch to the International Space Station
March 14
- Possible U.S. government shutdown
- Serbian Parliament session on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
March 15-21
March 15
- United Airlines set to become first U.S. carrier to resume New York-Tel Aviv flights
March 17
- St. Patrick’s Day
March 19
- First execution in Arizona in two years
- U.S. Federal Reserve meeting
- EU to present action plan for steel sector
March 20
- AP-Trump administration press pool hearing
March 22-28
March 22
- Gabon presidential election
March 23
- Opposition party to hold primary to pick Turkish presidential candidate
March 24
- Criminal case hearing against South Korea’s President Yoon on insurrection charges
- Brazilian president visits Japan
- Argentina’s Javier Milei visits Israel
March 28
- Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
March 29-April 4
March 31
- South Africa’s deadline for Taiwan to move embassy
- Belgian unions call national strike against austerity measures
- South Korea to lift its ban on short selling across all stock
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Top photo: Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (pictured on right) Liberal Party will choose a new leader on March 9 ahead of the 2025 elections. (Photo: Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street)
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