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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least 40 people have been killed by armed gangs in Haiti’s Kenscoff area south of Port-au-Prince over the past several weeks. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss what makes this new wave of violence different in a country long plagued by gang warfare and how the response to it is going.
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Week of Feb. 21-28
A Look Ahead
Feb. 20 – Argentina’s Javier Milei visits the United States
Argentinian President Javier Milei will visit the United States starting Thursday to meet with Elon Musk, members of the International Monetary Fund and possibly President Donald Trump.
What’s happened so far
Milei has governed Argentina since his election in November 2023 on a right-wing populist agenda that included sweeping anarcho-capitalist reforms to Argentina’s languishing economy. Thus far, Milei’s shock doctrine has devalued the Argentine peso by nearly 50 percent and axed major government programs. Milei’s popularity in Argentina has grown since his election, despite inflation remaining at some of the highest levels in the world. Most recently, Milei has come under fire for publicly boosting a cryptocurrency “meme coin” that swiftly collapsed after his social media posts.
The impact
Milei is set to deliver speeches on Argentine economic policy at the Inter-American Development Bank on Friday and at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C., on Saturday. Milei will also meet with Trump-confidante Elon Musk on Thursday before a crucial meeting with the IMF to negotiate additional loans for Argentina. Musk has publicly praised Milei as he currently undertakes his own austerity for the U.S. government’s Department of Government Efficiency. Milei is not currently scheduled to meet with President Trump, though an informal encounter is possible.
Feb. 23 – German federal elections
Germany will hold federal elections Sunday in the country’s fourth snap election of the post-war period.
What’s happened so far
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) appear likely to lose by a significant margin to the Christian Democrats (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz, marking a likely return to CDU rule after a four-year hiatus following Angela Merkel’s retirement. Among the issues at the forefront of the election are Germany’s post-2020 economic stagnation as well as increasing anti-immigrant sentiment due to a spate of recent attacks attributed to asylum seekers. This will also mark the first federal election since Germany moved to downsize its bloated Bundestag seat count.
The impact
Polling in second place is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which appears poised to double its Bundestag seat total from the 2021 election. While the AfD remains a pariah among the major German parties and the CDU is unlikely to tap the AfD for a coalition partner and instead turn toward the Greens or SPD, an outcome exists where the AfD and the upstart far-left populist Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are able to influence policy and play spoiler on areas of overlap such as immigration, Ukraine support and the constitutional debt brake if things break their way.
Feb. 23 – Funeral for Hezbollah’s Nasrallah
The funeral for Hassan Nasrallah, the late leader of Lebanon’s Iran-backed group Hezbollah, will be held on Sunday in the outskirts of Beirut.
What’s happened so far
The ceremony will take place months after the organization’s leader for more than three decades was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut’s suburbs on Sept. 27. Hezbollah confirmed the funeral procession will also honor Hashem Safieddine, killed a week after Nasrallah, who was expected to be named Nasrallah’s successor. The Hezbollah leaders received temporary burials last year due to security concerns amid heightened hostilities with Israel at the time of their deaths (members’ link).
The impact
According to Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem, Nasrallah will be buried in Beirut’s southern outskirts, near the capital’s airport, and Safieddine will be buried in Deir Qanoun, his hometown in southern Lebanon. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed the attendance of “high level” members of government, without disclosing the identities of the representatives who will travel to Beirut. The event will take place in the midst of a ceasefire impasse between Hezbollah and Israel. Despite both sides failing to withdraw from southern Lebanon by Feb. 18, the ceasefire agreement deadline, escalation has not resumed.
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Feb. 24 – U.S. government workers ordered to return to office
Monday marks the first day that President Donald Trump’s return-to-work executive order for all federal workers comes into force.
What’s happened so far
On Jan. 20, the White House issued an executive order stating all executive branch departments and agencies must terminate remote working, a trend that began during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic. This includes senior political employees as well as junior workers in the executive branch who will return to full-time employment in federal offices.
The impact
The order to return-to-work is part of the tug-of-war between the current administration and collective bargaining agreements. While the former believes these agreements with labor unions are not binding from one administration to the next, labor unions and federal employees are fighting the directive. Last week, around 75,000 federal employees accepted the deferred buyout program offered by Trump in lieu of the return-to-office order.
Feb. 25 – Deadline for Los Angeles fires clean-up
Workers are rushing to expedite hazardous debris removal in the aftermath of the Eaton and Palisades fires in Los Angeles, in an effort to meet a Trump-imposed deadline for Tuesday, just over a month after the fires broke out.
What’s happened so far
The Eaton and Palisades fires, fanned by destructive Santa Ana winds, killed 29 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures in January. An atmospheric river followed just five weeks later, bringing enough rain to dissolve burned hills and cliffs into mudslides that triggered evacuations and closed roads.
The impact
Contractors from the Environmental Protection Agency must complete hazardous material removal for each property before the Army Corps can clear the rest of the debris. Residents in Malibu are protesting the potential use of a site near their city hall to process hazardous fire debris. Federal agencies also said they will not be ordering soil testing to confirm contamination on affected properties, saying that scraping off six inches of topsoil is enough to protect public health.
Feb. 27 – Ontario elections
Voters in Ontario, Canada’s largest province, will elect a new provincial parliament and premier Thursday, with polling showing a strong lead for incumbent leader Doug Ford.
What’s happened so far
Despite the lowest approval rating of any sitting Canadian premier, Toronto-native Doug Ford has governed Ontario with a majority government since 2018. Ford’s family ran a successful packaging company before entering politics, and his late brother Rob was mayor of Toronto from 2010-2014 before he was forced out with the release of a video showing him smoking crack cocaine. As premier, Ford has overseen a middling economy relative to the other provinces and a soaring real estate market. Ontario has also accepted a particularly high number of immigrants, with the population growing over 10 percent during Ford’s tenure. With polling showing a strong lead for the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), Ford called a snap election at the end of January, a year before he was required to do so.
The impact
Ford’s is currently polling around 40 percent, with the center left Liberal party led by Bonnie Crumbie and Marit Stiles’ New Democratic Party both battling for second around 20 percent. The three-party system in Ontario has benefited Ford by splitting the province’s left-of-center electorate. If elected to another term, Ford has promised extensive projects and expansions to the road system in Toronto, including an extremely ambitious tunneling project for Highway 401, the busiest road in Canada. Despite ongoing threat of tariffs from the United States, Ford has also committed to massive investments in the province’s already-substantial automotive sector.
What Else Matters
Flooding in U.S. Appalachia
Severe storms swept over several parts of the country over the weekend, knocking out power to tens of thousands of people, spawning several tornadoes and causing devastating flooding in the Appalachian region. More than a dozen people died in Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia, with several counties reporting significant damage. In Kentucky alone, the heavy rains prompted more than 1,000 water rescues, and residents saw more than a month’s worth of rain in less than 24 hours. The deluge caused a levee to fail in the small town of Rives, Tenn., where rising waters impacted more than half the homes and prompted mandatory evacuations.
Watch for: As authorities in Virginia noted, it will take days to determine the extent of the damage caused by the weekend’s storms. As efforts to restore power in the affected areas continue, forecasters warned of frigid temperatures anticipated across a swath of the United States as an arctic air mass moves across the country, with about three-quarters of the U.S. population expected to see below-freezing conditions by Friday. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear described the situation in his state as “a snowstorm in the middle of a natural disaster.” The blast of cold air and any accompanying frosty weather is expected to complicate recovery efforts as authorities shift their focus on ensuring that people stay warm.
Kenscoff, Haiti, violence
Gangs that have overrun Port-au-Prince, Haiti, are now moving into an area nearby that had been largely untouched, marking a new chapter in the years-long battle with law enforcement and the military. The powerful “Viv Ansanm” gang alliance has killed dozens of people in Kenscoff since January. Located in the foothills of the mountains southeast of the capital, Kenscoff has been described as a “peaceful” community that’s rich with resources and home to much of the country’s elite. However, most of the victims of the clashes have been working-class people who tend the land nearby. Thousands of those who survived the wave of attacks are now homeless after the gang razed homes and vehicles.
Watch for: If the gangs take control of Kenscoff, it would be catastrophic from a strategic standpoint. It would give them leverage over Port-au-Prince’s food supply and control of a key route for people trying to escape the violence of the capital. It would also give them a foothold to take Pétion-Ville, an affluent area. On the other hand, if the police, army and Multinational Security Support mission led by Kenya can hold Kenscoff, it would represent to the public that the gangs’ expansion isn’t a foregone conclusion. Haitians are rightfully outraged, after the country’s prime minister revealed the government knew about the Kenscoff attack but failed to prevent it.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Feb. 21-28
Feb. 21
- Michigan minimum wage increase
Feb. 22
- Algeria uprising anniversary
Feb. 23
- Germany elections
- Funeral for Hezbollah’s Nasrallah
Feb. 24
- Canada liberal leadership debates
- U.S. government enforces partial return-to-work policy
Feb. 25
- EPA deadline to remove hazardous material from Los Angeles fires
Feb. 26
- SpaceX water-hunting moon probe launch
Feb. 27
- Ontario elections
March 1-7
March 1
- Possible end of U.S. tariff delay
- Agreed date to return gas supplies between Moldova and Transnistria
- Turkey starts Turkmenistan natural gas imports
- End of Syria transitional government
March 2
- Washington, D.C., plane crash benefit at Capital One Arena
- Tajikistan lower parliamentary house and local elections
March 3
- Micronesia general elections
March 4
- Trump to address Congress
- Steve Bannon border wall trial
- Mardi Gras
- China’s parliament “Two Sessions” begin
- Egypt to host emergency Arab summit
March 5
- Sanctuary city leaders testify before U.S. Congress
- Hong Kong taxi union threatens 5-day strike
March 6
- Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi will step down
March 8-14
March 8
- Western Australia state elections
March 9
- Liberal Party of Canada leadership vote
March 11
- Greenland election
March 12
- U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in
- Crew-10 mission will launch to the International Space Station
March 14
- Possible U.S. government shutdown
March 15-21
March 15
- United Airlines set to become first US carrier to resume New York-Tel Aviv flights
March 17
- St. Patrick’s Day
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Top photo: Anti-fascist demonstrators protested against the right-wing conservative AfD party in Frankfurt, Germany, in January 2024. (Photo: conceptphoto.info / Flickr)
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