Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
After more than 15 months of war in the Gaza Strip, a multi-phase ceasefire between Israel and Hamas started over the weekend. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss the precarious nature of the deal, the hostage-for-prisoner exchanges and far-right opposition to the deal.
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Week of Jan. 24-31
A Look Ahead
Jan. 26 – End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
The two-month ceasefire agreed to by Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah will expire Sunday.
What’s happened so far
This round of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel broke out on a low level in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. The cross-border situation steadily escalated into the fall of 2024 with Israeli strikes on suspected Hezbollah targets intensifying as thousands of Israeli citizens were evacuated from homes in the north. By early-October of last year, there were near-daily Israeli airstrikes on southern Beirut as well as a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that ultimately was halted by the late-November ceasefire.
The impact
Under terms of the ceasefire, Israel would withdraw its forces back across the border and Hezbollah would pull its soldiers and weaponry north of the Litani River, a key strategic landmark, while the Lebanese government would ostensibly fill the security gap in the south. Israel has reportedly maintained military activity in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, even as Hezbollah is reportedly significantly degraded both by Israel’s operations as well as the fall of Syria’s Assad regime that served as a crucial route for weapons sent by Iran, leaving open the possibility that Israel chooses to reopen its northern front following the ceasefire in Gaza.
Jan. 26 – Belarusian presidential election
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is running for his seventh term in office Sunday, four years after the previous elections resulted in mass protests and an unprecedented wave of repression targeting the opposition.
What’s happened so far
Lukashenko has eliminated almost all his political rivals in Belarus, with most prominent opposition figures having either fled the country or been imprisoned. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, leader of the opposition in exile, has called on European leaders not to acknowledge the vote and branded it a farcical ritual conducted by Lukashenko without external oversight. Russia continued to deepen ties with Belarus following the previous election in 2020, further isolating Belarus and turning it into a de facto extension of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin has continually used Belarus as a platform for military resources since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, deploying part of its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons there in 2023 and extending its revised nuclear doctrine to encompass Belarusian territory.
The impact
Lukashenko’s victory is a foregone conclusion in Sunday’s presidential election. In spite of international sanctions imposed on the Belarusian government and mass allegations of rigging, Lukashenko is likely seeking to consolidate power and regain legitimacy lost following the 2020 elections. In the run-up to the vote, he has issued multiple pardons to people widely regarded as political prisoners, in a move Tsikhanouskaya has decried as an attempt to win concessions from the West.
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Jan. 27 – U.S. tax season begins
The official start of the 2025 tax season run by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is Monday.
What’s happened so far
Taxpayers across 25 states will be able to use the Direct File program launched in 2024 to file their taxes directly with the agency, for free, starting Monday. The platform also allows users to claim deductions for health savings accounts, student loan interests and education expenses, as well as Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Tax Credit and Premium Tax Credit. The deadline to submit tax returns for businesses and individuals will be April 15. Most taxpayers should receive their refunds within 21 days of filing.
The impact
More than 140 million tax returns are expected to be filed this year, with the IRS expected to issue over $300 billion in refunds. The agency aims to offer 10,000 extended office hours and a 20 percent expansion of its rural outreach program to maintain its usual levels of service, including assistance waiting times, during this year’s exercise. IRS officials have warned the public against possible tax scams and schemes ahead of the season and have established mechanisms to prevent fraud and inform taxpayers on the agency’s official website.
Jan. 29 – Bank of Canada to cut rates
Canada’s central bank is expected to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points Wednesday as the country faces uncertainty on future tariffs imposed by the new U.S. administration.
What’s happened so far
According to a poll by Reuters, the majority of economists expect a quarter-point rate cut to 3 percent, followed by another cut in March. The bank has already cut its interest rate by half-percentage point to 3.25 percent last December, but the risk of U.S.-imposed tariffs is forcing the country to take precautionary steps. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is due to leave his post in March, has formed a Canada-U.S. relations council to support the federal government with possible incoming changes that will come with the new administration.
The impact
U.S. President Donald Trump has previously threatened to impose tariffs as high as 25 percent on Canadian imports, which would further deepen its productivity crisis. While he did not implement this on his first day in office, reports have suggested he will introduce the tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Feb. 1. Trump’s planned tax cuts also risk ending Canada’s corporate tax advantage, experts have warned.
Jan. 29 – Lunar New Year
More than 1 billion people across Asia and their diasporas around the world are gearing up to celebrate the Lunar New Year on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
Hundreds of millions of people across China, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan travel annually during the Lunar New Year holiday to reunite with families or sightsee during their time off. Though the coronavirus pandemic put a damper on Lunar New Year travel and economic activity for several years, China saw both rebound in 2024 and is expecting more of the same this year.
The impact
The holiday travel period is already underway and usually lasts some 40 days, with observing countries forecasting record travel numbers. Airports in Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and China are prepared for a surge in both inbound and outbound travel.
Jan. 30 – Benefit concert for LA fires
A group of notable music artists will be headlining FireAid on Thursday at two venues just miles away from the scene of the devastating Los Angeles wildfires.
What’s happened so far
On Jan. 7, hurricane-force Santa Ana winds turned several blazes into raging infernos in Southern California, burning tens of thousands of acres. More than 15,000 structures have been destroyed and at least 27 people killed. The wildfires will likely set a U.S. record for cost to insurers, with JPMorgan estimating a total economic loss of more than $50 billion.
The impact
The fires have led to an outpouring of support from celebrities and entertainment organizations. Live Nation and AEG, despite being competitors, will be putting on the concerts at the Intuit Dome and Kia Forum in Inglewood with acts like Lady Gaga, Stevie Wonder, Joni Mitchell and Stevie Nicks scheduled to perform. Dave Matthews and John Mayer will also perform together for the first time. Both venues and Ticketmaster have waived fees so all the proceeds will go towards a 501(c)(3) created for the event.
Jan. 31 – Possible Costco strike
Thousands of Costco employees are poised to strike after Friday, when the current contract ends between the warehouse giant and the union that represents its workers.
What’s happened so far
The Teamsters, which represents more than 18,000 Costco employees, said Sunday that its members voted 85 percent in favor of authorizing a strike after weeks of negotiations with Costco. The union is seeking higher wages and improved retirement benefits for its members, pointing to record profits. In anticipation of a possible strike, practice pickets have recently been held in California, Washington and New York. The final week of negotiations between Costco and the Teamsters began Jan. 20.
The impact
If a new agreement is not reached, Costco Teamsters said its union members are prepared to walk off the job across several states, likely hampering the company’s operations and impacting its employee-friendly reputation. The 18,000 workers covered by the Costco Teamsters National Master Agreement make up about 8 percent of Costco’s 219,000 employees nationwide. But Sunday’s vote does not guarantee that a strike will happen — strike authorizations are used frequently as a tactic amid negotiations and the authorization wound become moot if a deal is reached before the current contract expires.
What Else Matters
Donald Trump executive orders
The political resurgence of U.S. President Donald Trump, combined with his embrace of far-right social and economic policies, portends massive disruptions across virtually all industries. Trump began his return to the White House with a slew of executive orders, targeting nearly 80 Biden-era policies and attempting to fulfill his campaign promises.
Watch for: Tariffs remain atop the list of concerns for many businesses. Trump has threatened tariffs on America’s two largest trade partners — Mexico and Canada — and has pledged to make them a key stick in his foreign policy toolbox, mulling tariffs on Denmark to pressure Copenhagen as part of his proposed plan to secure American sovereignty over Greenland. Imposing additional costs on such a wide variety of goods entering the United States, could see price increases up and down the supply chain. Trump has also taken immediate action to implement his heavy-handed border policy, including signing an order to end birthright citizenship that has already drawn legal challenges from 22 states. His crackdown on migrant labor also foretells disruption in industries where migrant labor — especially undocumented migrant labor — is more common. More broadly, Trump has also pledged to end a number of Biden-era policies, including clean energy and climate provisions. His distrust of international institutions is an ill omen for European security, as he has publicly mulled withdrawing from NATO.
Gaza ceasefire
After more than 15 months of fighting, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip began at 11:15 am local time Sunday, following an hours-long delay that Israel said was caused by Hamas refusing to name the captives set for release. The agreement was announced last week by the mediating parties, Qatar and the United States, but only passed by the Israeli government over the weekend due to internal political turmoil in the country.
Watch for: The first phase of the ceasefire is set to last 42 days and will see a gradual release of more than 30 Israeli captives that have been held in the Gaza Strip since October 2023, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. More than 600 aid trucks are expected to enter the Palestinian territory on a daily basis, after months of besiegement has led to catastrophic levels of famine. Members of Israel’s ruling coalition, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to withdraw their support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if the country doesn’t resume fighting in Gaza following the first phase, potentially triggering a government collapse if Netanyahu loses the majority. Although negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire are set to begin Feb. 3, analysts fear that Netanyahu will prioritize the the push made to his right-wing supporters to return to war rather than see a full adherence to the entire ceasefire meant to halt the fighting indefinitely.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 24-31
Jan. 25
- Egypt revolution anniversary
Jan. 26
- Belarusian presidential election
- Australia Day
- India’s Republic Day
- End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
Jan. 27
- U.S. tax season begins
Jan. 29
- Lunar New Year
- Bank of Canada to cut rates
Jan. 30
- FireAid benefit concert for LA fires
Jan. 31
- Possible Costco strike
Feb. 1-7
Feb. 1
- President Trump says he thinks tariffs will be imposed on Mexico and Canada
- Italy’s ITA Airways to resume flights to Israel
Feb. 2
- Togo legislative election
Feb. 3
- Day when Israel and Hamas agreed to begin negotiations for second phase of ceasefire
Feb. 5
- Delhi legislative assembly election
- Milkipur assembly by-election
Feb. 6
- Islamabad hosts UN and World Bank experts for climate conference
Feb. 7
- Pat King, organizer of Canada’s “Freedom Convoy,” to be sentenced
Feb. 8-14
Feb. 9
- Kosovo elections
- Ecuador elections
- Super Bowl
- Palestinians will be able to return to north Gaza through Salah ad-Deen road
Feb. 10
- Amazon employees at a North Carolina warehouse will vote on unionizing with the independent group CAUSE
- Meta plans to cut 5% of its workers in performance-based job cuts
- France hosts Artificial Intelligence Action Summit
Feb. 12
- African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Feb. 13
- France to hold conference on Syria
Feb. 14
- Munich Security Conference begins
Feb. 15-23
Feb. 23
- Germany elections
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Top photo: This map released by Israeli forces on Nov. 27, 2024, shows no-go zones in southern Lebanon amid a ceasefire with Hezbollah. (Photo: Israel Defense Forces)
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