Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Israel struck a major blow to Hamas last week, killing leader Yahya Sinwar during a military operation in the southern Gaza Strip. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss fallout from the killing as well as who might replace Sinwar as the group vows to fight on.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Oct. 25-Nov. 1
A Look Ahead
Oct. 26 – Georgia elections
Georgians will vote in the country’s parliamentary election on Saturday with the ruling Georgian Dream party seeking to consolidate power by winning a fourth term in office.
What’s happened so far
Opposition groups say another win for the Georgian Dream party could derail Georgia’s aspirations for European Union integration. In recent years, Georgian Dream has favored policies that have been perceived as anti-western and Russia-aligned. The adoption of the so-called “foreign agents” bill and a law curbing the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals in the country has driven a wedge between Georgia and the West, effectively freezing integration talks with the EU. The policies have also triggered mass protests across the country with critics accusing the government of adopting Kremlin-like legislation and undermining democracy. As part of its campaign, Georgian Dream has sought to portray the elections as a choice between war and peace, implying that a win for the pro-western opposition could drag Georgia into the war in Ukraine.
The impact
A win for Georgian Dream would likely mean a continuation of pro-Russian narratives in the country and the adoption of legislation that undermines democracy and curbs personal freedoms. Given the level of polarization in Georgian society, protests around the election are very likely with a high risk of escalation to violent clashes, especially in the capital Tbilisi.
Oct. 27 – Japan general elections
All 465 seats in Japan’s Lower House of Representatives will be up for grabs on Sunday during the country’s general election.
What’s happened so far
Set to take place a year earlier than most expected, the general election follows the surprise resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who stepped down in August, in attempt to regain public trust amid ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s plummeting approval rating over a series of political scandals and rising inflation. Shortly after winning the divisive LDP leadership race in late September, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called for a snap election – a gamble seeking to solidify his support within the party. The LDP, in coalition with the Komeito party, has dominated most of Japan’s post-war political landscape, aside from a short-lived government led by center-left DPJ party from 2009 to 2012.
The impact
With a divided opposition, many believe that the LDP will again return to office, as it remains the most popular party in Japan even in such times of economic challenges and political turmoil. A poll last weekend by the Kyodo News put the LDP’s at 26.4 percent, substantially outpacing the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party’s 12.4 percent. But others have suggested that the party could struggle or even fail to retain a majority in the lower house. The upcoming election is not only an important test for Ishiba, determining whether he would be seen as capable of leading the divided party, but also have a profound impact on Japan’s economy and fragmented political scene.
Rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Oct. 27 – Uruguay general elections
On Sunday, around 3 million Uruguyuans are expected to take part in the country’s general election.
What’s happened so far
The country’s electoral system combines parliamentary and presidential elections all-in-one, and is mandatory for all Uruguay citizens living in the country. Presidents may not be re-elected consecutively, preventing popular ruler Louis Lacalle Pou of the center-right Partido Nacional from seeking a second term. In his stead, the race is between three candidates, with a two-person run-off likely on Nov. 24 if none reach 50 percent. The opposition Frente Amplio coalition under Yamandu Orsi leads polls by a hefty margin, and behind him are both the Partido Nacional candidate Alvaro Delgado and Andres Ojeda of the Colorado Party, who are part of the current ruling coalition. Alongside the elections, two constitutional referendums are set to take place at the same time, on pension reform and night raids by police.
The impact
Uruguay is relatively calm during and outside of elections, and it is unlikely violence spills out Sunday or after. Nevertheless, the constitutional plebiscite over pension reform is taking center stage, which if passed, will decrease the retirement age from 65 to 60, get rid of private pension fund managers and tie pensions to the minimum wage, which has caused constant back-and-forth between parties, internally and externally. If the referendum is approved by the population, it will likely continue to be the main focus during the run-off vote.
Oct. 27 – Bulgaria elections
Bulgaria will hold its seventh parliamentary elections in three years on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The elections will be the latest in a series of seven parliamentary races in the country since 2021 amid a worsening political crisis and will mark the second time in less than half a year after June’s parliamentary elections failed to result in the formation of a government. Bulgaria’s multi-year period of political instability was triggered by the 2020 anti-corruption protests that ultimately resulted in the defeat of the previously-dominant GERB party.
The impact
Polling this time around indicates there will be little to no change to the composition of the Bulgarian parliament after the latest election cycle with GERB once again finishing with a plurality of votes. It remains to be seen if any Bulgarian movement will have more luck forming a coalition government this time around. Bulgaria’s political instability hinders EU efforts to fund Bulgarian infrastructure improvements as well as Sofia’s plans to join the Eurozone and Schengen region.
Oct. 27 – Brazil municipal elections second round
Brazilian voters on Sunday will elect mayors in more than 50 municipalities.
What’s happened so far
Brazilian municipalities with more than 200,000 eligible voters will hold a second round of municipal elections to renew their mayors – a total of 51, including 15 state capitals – after none of the candidates received a sufficient majority in the first vote. Some 5,569 cities across Brazil held municipal elections on Oct. 6, resulting in mostly center-right candidates’ victories.
The impact
Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won 10 city halls in the first round of voting and will contest the election in 23 of the cities due to hold a second round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party will contest the second round in 13 cities. The municipal elections in Brazil serve as a thermometer for parties and candidates’ approval rates two years after the general election.
Oct. 30 – Botswana elections
Botswana will hold general elections on Wednesday as President Mokgweetsi Masisi hopes to secure his second and final term in office.
What’s happened so far
Masisi took office in the 2019 elections and his Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has been the country’s ruling party since it gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. While the runup to the election has been peaceful, the electoral agency has warned opposition parties to stop making vote rigging allegations. There was also an issue with early voting in some locations with reports of irregularities, including a lack of ballot papers.
The impact
The BDP appears poised to win — in part due to a divided opposition — but an upset is possible, considering former President Ian Khama, who hand-picked Masisi as his successor, has returned to Botswana from exile and is now campaigning against him.
Oct. 30 – U.K. budget
Britain’s finance minister will deliver a much-anticipated budget on Wednesday in an effort to plug a hole in the country’s finances that may be as large as $52 billion (£40 billion).
What’s happened so far
Rachel Reeves, the first woman to head the UK’s finance ministry, was appointed when Britain’s Labour Party came to power in July following a general election that ended 14 years of Conservative Party rule. After a rocky first 100 days in office, the budget is Labour’s first major policy test as it unveils its spending plans for the country, which are likely to include changes to tax structures and cuts to government departments. Labour has promised there will not be a return to the austerity measures imposed by previous governments, but the scale of the problem looms large over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s plan to stabilize the country’s finances and fix the ailing National Health Service.
The impact
Details of the budget won’t be known until Reeves presents it in Parliament, but there has been a great deal of speculation on how far Reeves will go, with talk of changes to inheritance tax, fuel duty and a hike in rates for high earners.
What Else Matters
Killing of Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar
The leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, was killed during an Israeli military patrolling operation in the Tal al-Sultan area of southern Gaza last Wednesday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called his death an important symbolic victory, with several officials accusing him of being the “mastermind” behind the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 last year. For Palestinians, on the other hand, Sinwar’s death has immortalized him as a “martyr,” as the leader was seen fighting in military fatigues until his very final moments.
Watch for: Multiple candidates are thought to be favored to replace Sinwar as Hamas’ Gaza leader, including Qatar-based deputy leader Khalil al-Hayya and leader of Hamas’ mission abroad Khaled Mashal. Both are considered more moderate candidates to Sinwar, prompting analysts to consider a different approach in any future ceasefire negotiations and hostage talks. Both parties, however, remain steadfast in not doubling down on certain key elements of a future deal, including the role of Hamas as a political party in Gaza and the full withdrawal of the Israeli military from the Palestinian enclave. Meanwhile, Israel seems adamant on continuing its war in Gaza and in Lebanon despite eliminating senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as the death toll in both countries continues to surge.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea port
Ukraine has asked the International Maritime Organization to send a monitoring mission to ports in Odesa region amid intensified Russian attacks on grain shipments and port infrastructure over past weeks. Since Sept. 1, six civilian vessels and grain infrastructure have been damaged in Russian attacks and the Ukrainian government has branded the strikes as a terrorist tactic to weaken Ukraine’s economy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had a huge impact on global food supply with grain prices surging after Russia blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea Ports. Since Russia exited the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2023, Ukraine has operated its own grain corridor through the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
Watch for: A return to a de facto blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea port infrastructure would cause grain prices to skyrocket again, disproportionately affecting countries in the Global South, which are heavily reliant on grain shipments from the Black Sea. It would also deprive the Ukrainian economy of a significant source of revenue as the country struggles to find the resources necessary to repel Russian advances in Donbas and maintain captured territory in Russia’s Kursk region. Global markets have shown early alarm signs with the cost of insuring vessels transiting through Ukraine’s shipping corridor in the Black sea increasing at the beginning of October.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 25-Nov. 1
Oct. 26
- Georgia parliamentary elections
Oct. 27
- Uruguay general elections
- Israeli Knesset returns from summer recess
- Brazil municipal elections second round
- Japan general elections
- Bulgaria election
Oct. 30
- Botswana elections
- U.K. budget released
Nov. 1
- U.K. tube drivers strike
Nov. 2-8
Nov. 2
- Dia de los Muertos
- U.K. Conservatives announce new leader
Nov. 4
- Jammu and Kashmir assembly session begins
Nov. 5
- U.S. presidential election
Nov. 7
- Federal Reserve meeting
Nov. 8
- Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet
Nov. 9-15
Nov. 10
- Mauritius legislative elections
Nov. 12
- Palau elections
Nov. 14
- Sri Lanka elections
Nov. 16-22
Nov. 18
- Trump assassination attempt suspect trial
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Top photo: Protesters, pictured above in April 2024, have gathered throughout Georgia since 2023 in a series of demonstrations against the country’s so-called “foreign agents” bill. (Photo: Jelger Groeneveld / Flickr)
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