Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Israeli troops engaged in intense fighting with Hezbollah militants this week in southern Lebanon after launching what the military has said will be a “limited, localized and targeted” ground operation there. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss the incursion’s impact on regional tensions and what makes this conflict different from the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War that left more than 1,000 people dead in Lebanon and 150 more in Israel.
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Week of Oct. 4-11
A Look Ahead
Oct. 6 – Brazil municipal elections first round
On Sunday, millions of Brazilians will begin voting for mayors and councilors in the country’s first round for municipal elections.
What’s happened so far
More than 459,000 mayors and deputy mayors will be selected in this year’s municipal elections for more than 5,500 cities across the country, with another 58,000 councilors up for election. The second round, only held in cities with a population larger than 200,000, is set to take place on Oct. 27 in races where no candidate received at least 50 percent of the vote. The battle of left vs. right wing candidates is taking place across regional capitals, most importantly in the country’s economic powerhouse of São Paulo, where there’s a tight and at times violent race between current right-wing mayor Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos, part of the left-wing Workers’ Party.
The impact
The political divide between current President Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s ideas are being played out at a municipal level, with São Paulo expected to be the most watched battleground come Sunday. Crime and the economy are at the forefront of the campaigns, and the armed forces have been deployed for the elections, with at least 455 cases of violence recorded against candidates throughout the year.
Oct. 6 – Tunisia presidential elections
Voters in Tunisia will cast their ballots Sunday in a presidential election marred by protests and controversy over treatment of candidates.
What’s happened so far
Only three candidates will be on the ballot come Sunday, including incumbent President Kais Saied, with businessman candidate Ayachi Zammel reportedly jailed for 12 years on election-related charges. The country’s opposition, who have taken to the streets in protests, have derided the race and the treatment of candidates as a slide back to authoritarian rule. Tunisia’s electoral commission dismissed court rulings that were meant to reinstate three candidates. Following the move, Tunisia’s parliament passed a law to strip the country’s courts of the power to oversee the Saied-appointed Independent High Authority for Elections, leaving the ballot with three candidates.
The impact
Saied, who came to power in 2019 on an anti-establishment platform and increased his power during a 2021 self-coup, is expected to win another five-year presidential term as he faces off against two little-known candidates, one of whom has been jailed.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Oct. 7 – North Korea Supreme People’s Assembly meeting on constitutional revision
On Monday, North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament will convene a session to discuss a proposed constitutional amendment in Pyongyang.
What’s happened so far
With North Korea’s trash balloon campaign launched in January and Seoul suspending the 2018 military agreement in response, inter-Korean relations have deteriorated sharply since the beginning of 2024. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said, in a previous parliamentary meeting, that unification with the South was “a mistake that we should no longer make” and called for changes in the constitution to label South Korea as the country’s “primary foe.” Accusing Seoul of attempting to seek unification through absorption, Kim stressed that the North will not shy away from war should it happen. Three government agencies charged with promoting reunification with the South were also abolished subsequently. The upcoming parliamentary meeting is set to discuss the proposed revision of the constitution, as well as the issues regarding laws on light industry, external economic affairs, and the enforcement of the quality control law.
The impact
According to South Korean officials, the North is likely to scrap an inter-Korean basic agreement signed in 1991, which sees ties between Pyongyang and Seoul as a “special relationship” formed in the process of seeking reunification, not as state-to-state relations. While the upcoming SPA session is unlikely to disprove the direction laid out by the ruling worker’s party, experts will definitely be keeping an eye on any substantial action following the revision and South Korea’s response to the potentially escalatory move.
Oct. 8 – Nigeria to start mpox vaccination
Nigeria will begin administering vaccinations for mpox on Tuesday following regulatory approvals.
What’s happened so far
The country received its first batch of 10,000 doses of the Jynneos mpox vaccine from the U.S. Agency for International Development in August. Following three weeks of regulatory lab analysis, the vaccine is now expected to be given to 4,750 people across five states who will receive two doses each, 28 days apart.
The impact
Nigeria has confirmed 40 cases of the disease with no fatalities since the World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency on Aug. 14. Outbreaks remain complex and hard to monitor due to insufficient resources with cases in Nigeria and rest of Africa largely going unreported. But authorities hope the vaccine will curb the disease by targeting the population in close contact with mpox cases, including health workers and people that are immunocompromised.
Oct. 9 – Mozambique elections
Citizens of Mozambique will elect a new president and parliament on Wednesday, with president Filipie Nyusi from the FRELIMO party term-limited.
What’s happened so far
The socialist Mozambique Liberation Front, or FRELIMO, ruled Mozambique after independence from Portugal in 1975 and has held onto power since elections began in 1994. Current FRELIMO head Nyusi won two elections in 2014 and 2019, but is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. The United States alleged widespread fraud and intimidation during 2019’s election, while at least three opposition protesters were killed during demonstrations following October 2023’s local elections. The newest FRELIMO candidate Daniel Chapo was chosen in May after a competitive internal leadership battle.
The impact
Despite Chapo’s low name recognition, FRELIMO is expected to win the presidency over three other candidates, as well as a majority in the Assembly of the Republic legislature. RENAMO, the country’s main opposition party – and anti-communisty rebel movement until 1992 – is headed by Osuffo Momade, who ran in 2019. RENAMO has promised to tackle the Islamist insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region, which began in 2017 but declined significantly following the deployment of Rwandan peacekeepers in 2021. Reasserting state control in Cabo Delgado is essential to tapping the region’s significant natural gas reserves, to which Mozambique has attempted to attract international investors. Mozambique ranks low on global corruption and election freedom indexes, and Wednesday’s results could spark protests from the opposition.
Oct. 9 – New Japan PM dissolves lower house
Former defense minister and incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will try to make his mark on Japan by taking his faltering party in a new direction by dissolving the National Diet’s lower house Wednesday ahead of a snap election.
What’s happened so far
In August, then-prime minister Fumio Kishida effectively resigned when he announced he wouldn’t seek re-election as the leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party. It came amid record-low approval ratings stemming from inflation, an ongoing slush fund scandal and the party’s relationship with the Unification Church before the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In last month’s party election, Ishiba surprised many with a second-round runoff victory. Days later, he called for snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 27, a year before the deadline, as a way to take advantage of an uptick in voter support.
The impact
Ishiba’s party likely won’t lose in the upcoming election, seeing as the LDP has been in power nearly every year since World War II, but the election is a way to put his mark on the country’s economy and foreign affairs. Ishiba is seen as a centrist with several failed runs to lead the party but was elected instead of a conservative hardliner. He may try to implement some of the policies that he advocates that party leaders have stayed away from, including the legalization of same-sex marriage.
Oct. 10 – Biden travels to Germany, Angola
Starting Thursday, U.S. President Biden will embark on a trip to Germany and Angola.
What’s happened so far
The first stop of the trip will be Germany, where Biden will take part in an international meeting to discuss military support for Ukraine. Biden will then make his first trip to Africa as president from Oct. 13-15 to meet with his Angolan counterpart to discuss shared priorities such as bolstering economic cooperation.
The impact
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the last such Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein air base in Germany, though it is unclear as of now if he will attend this one as well. The meeting comes as the United States, France and the United Kingdom mull allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with western-supplied long-range missiles, though will now take place within the backdrop of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lowering the military’s stated threshold for nuclear use in a pointed policy change directed at Kyiv’s western backers.
What Else Matters
Hurricane Helene
At least 150 people are confirmed dead across the southeast United States, including more than 50 in the Blue Ridge Mountains, and hundreds more remain missing after Hurricane Helene brought high winds and torrential rainfall to the region over the weekend. After making landfall on the coast of northwestern Florida last Friday as a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, the system wreaked havoc hundreds of miles inland, with western North Carolina bearing the brunt of historic flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency says it has distributed nearly 2 million ready-to-eat meals and over 1 million liters of water to impacted areas.
Watch for: As of Wednesday, more than 1.1 million customers remained without power in the Carolinas and Georgia, while transportation officials have warned it may be months before any major route through western North Carolina reopens following significant storm damage. Meanwhile, access to potable water remains an ongoing concern in that state, with 160 boil notices in effect and more than two dozen water plants currently offline. As search and rescue teams reach more isolated towns, the death toll is expected to rise.
Israel-Iran war
Iran launched dozens of missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian assets and allies in recent weeks. While most of the projectiles were intercepted with help from the United States, the United Kingdom and France, a few struck inside Israeli territory. The damage inflicted on Israeli military and civilian infrastructure marked the most significant attack since October 7, prompting Israel and the U.S. to vow “severe consequences.”
Watch for: After years of inflammatory rhetoric and occasional confrontations, the Israeli-Iran conflict is at the closest point to escalating into an all-out war that would have a devastating impact on the Middle East if both sides decide to target each other’s nuclear assets. Mitigating this scenario is the heavy U.S. military presence in the region, which may serve as leverage to limit the scale of Israel’s military actions, and Russia’s alliance with Iran having the potential to do the same. Israel, meanwhile, continues to attack Lebanon and Gaza, effectively weakening Iran’s threat closer to its borders.
Lebanon ground invasion
In the early hours of Tuesday, Israel’s military issued a statement confirming the much-anticipated ground invasion into southern Lebanon in a significant escalation in the war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah. The move comes after days of what it called “targeted” strikes across Lebanon that have left more than 1,000 people dead and led to the displacement of over a million people. These have included near-daily strikes on the capital Beirut – most significantly a series of airstrikes in the capital’s southern suburbs last Friday that killed the group’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.
Watch for:The military has called its move in southern Lebanon a “limited operation,” with officials saying they wish to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border in order to establish a type of buffer zone with the goal of returning the approximately 60,000 residents that evacuated from northern Israel. Critics fear, however, a return to armed fighting similar to what the countries witnessed in 2006 that developed into a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon. With Hezbollah expected to appoint hardliner Hashem Safieddine as its new wartime secretary-general, the now very active front widens as countries fear an all out regional war as the anniversary looms of the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 4-11
Oct. 4
- Vote counting after three stages of elections in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir
Oct. 6
- Brazil municipal elections first round
- Tunisia presidential elections
Oct. 7
- Malaysia court to hear ex-PM Najib’s appeal on house arrest decision
- North Korea parliamentary meeting on constitutional revision
Oct. 8
- Nigeria to start mpox vaccination
- New Japan PM dissolves lower house
Oct. 9
- Mozambique election
Oct. 10
- Europa Clipper launch window opens
- Biden to travel to Germany, Angola
Oct. 12-18
Oct. 14
- U.K. holds international investment summit
Oct. 17
- European Central Bank meets
Oct. 19-25
Oct. 19
- British Columbia elections
Oct. 20
- Kurdistan elections
Oct. 26-Nov. 1
Oct. 27
- Uruguay general elections
- Israeli Knesset returns from summer recess
- Brazil municipal elections second round
Oct. 30
- Botswana elections
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Top photo: Millions of Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote in the first round of municipal elections. (Photo: Edilson Rodrigues / Agência Senado)
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