Dave Clark
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least 32 people were killed and about 3,000 more injured over two days this week when pagers and walkie-talkies owned by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss the suspected Israeli attack and the escalation to Israel-Lebanon tensions.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 20-27
A Look Ahead
Sept. 21 – Sri Lanka presidential election
Sri Lanka will vote for its highest executive office Saturday in the first election since the 2022 economic crisis that sparked anti-government protests and the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
What’s happened so far
Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time two years ago, collapsing under the weight of borrowing during the global economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The crisis sparked protests that forced Rajapaksa to flee and put power in the hands of former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The incumbent seeks to remain in office, running against more than 30 other candidates. The most prominent of those are Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of a leftist coalition aligned with the anti-Rajapaksa uprising, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Rajapaksa’s son Ramal.
The impact
Wickremesinghe is running on some tangible success in weathering the economic crisis, crediting his policies with bringing down inflation, strengthening the local currency and lowering Sri Lanka’s debt burden. Those improvements came at the cost of signing an IMF agreement that brought austerity to a nation already struggling with high rates of poverty and inequality. While none of the candidates are openly opposing the IMF-imposed economic system, the country’s relative stability of the last two years may well depend on its next leader’s ability to balance increasing taxes and prices of public services with growing public discontent.
Sept. 21 – Biden hosts Quad summit
President Joe Biden will host a summit featuring his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan on Saturday in Delaware.
What’s happened so far
The meeting will be the fourth of its kind held in person, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in attendance. On the agenda are primarily nonmilitary issues, including health security, climate and technology, but maritime security will be of particular interest amid recent challenges from China against the Philippines in disputed areas of the South China Sea.
The impact
While the summit reaffirms traditionally strong relations between the participants, Biden and Kishida will not be running for re-election in fast-approaching polls in their respective countries, and so the meeting will more likely serve as a capstone for their foreign policy legacies. The summit also immediately precedes the UN General Assembly’s “high-level week,” during which world leaders will gather in New York to discuss global issues.
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Sept. 22 – Germany’s Brandenburg elections
Germany’s Brandenburg, a federal state encircling Berlin, is set to hold its state elections on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Earlier this month in Thuringia, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the first far-right political group to win a state election in the country since WWII. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, too, appears to be making appeasements to the country’s growing right-wing sentiments after a law came into effect this Monday to tighten security controls at all of the country’s nine land border crossings. The move, officials said, came amid an effort to stop illegal immigration after Germany witnessed a surge in attacks claimed by extremist groups.
The impact
Analysts predict AfD is set to win the most parliamentary seats in Brandenburg, with polls suggesting the right-wing party led by Alice Weidel could win more than 28 percent of the votes. This would signify the first time that the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) is not in power in Brandenburg since the reunification of Germany in 1990. In fact, Brandenburg’s Minister President Dietmar Woidke has vowed to resign if his SPD party does not gain the most seats, as even the Greens and Leftist parties risk not being able to reach the minimum 5 percent threshold required to qualify for parliamentary seats.
Sept. 22 – PTI rally in Lahore
Supporters of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan plan to hold a march Sunday in Lahore, the country’s second-largest city, calling for Khan’s release after more than a year in prison on corruption charges.
What’s happened so far
Multiple Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) rallies have ended in violence and arrests, including in Karachi in January, Rawalpindi and other areas in February, and Islamabad in early September. Shipping containers were placed on the streets of Islamabad for several weeks to prevent mobility during rallies, though there are no reports of containers in Lahore at this time. In preparation for this rally, PTI canceled nationwide plans for protests Sept. 13 to “save its strengths” for the march in Lahore and allow rally goers to travel to the city.
The impact
PTI explicitly stated that they chose to cancel the Sept. 13 plans in response to the repeated clashes with police at its functions, saying “every peaceful PTI activity has resulted in its party leaders and workers’ arrests.” While the actions of the vast majority of attendees at these rallies have been peaceful, given the anticipated size of the Lahore rally, the threat of violence, including tear gas, baton charges and other means of forceful dispersion remains eminent.
Sept. 24 – UNGA begins
World leaders will convene in New York on Tuesday for the UN’s 79th General Assembly public session.
What’s happened so far
Directly before the summit, UN member states will meet during the “Summit of the Future” for “high-level debate” surrounding geopolitical issues, climate governance and security specifically oriented around future generations and digital impact. Former Cameroonian Prime Minister Philemon Yang will preside over the General Assembly this year, calling for open dialogue on “borderless issues,” including Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Haiti, among others.
The impact
While there are a plethora of issues concerning global security currently, the scope of the UN itself will also be a topic of debate, with calls for the UN Security Council to be reformed to include African and small-island states. Public speeches on rotation will take place Tuesday, and it is more than likely that the Israel-Gaza and Ukraine conflict will take center stage, especially with the continuation of the U.S.-backing of Israel. It is yet to be seen whether the General Assembly and the many side meetings and private conversations lead to anything more than continued debate.
Sept. 24 – FAA chief to testify before Congress on Boeing plan
Federal Aviation Administration head Mike Whitaker will appear on Tuesday before the House Transportation Committee to speak on Boeing’s quality improvement plan.
What’s happened so far
The aerospace manufacturer has been under increased scrutiny from regulators since a mid-air incident in January that saw a door plug blow out on an Alaska Airlines flight shortly after takeoff from Portland, Ore., International Airport. The company has been thrown into further turmoil in recent weeks, after machinists overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract agreement and instead opted to walk off the job last Friday.
The impact
Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who chairs the committee, told Reuters the FAA has to explain what it knew about Boeing’s safety practices in the lead up to the door plug incident, adding that the agency has a key role to play in establishing a new safety culture. New President and CEO Kelly Ortberg now faces the tall task of turning around the company’s financial fortunes, reestablishing its manufacturing prowess, and achieving labor peace.
Sept. 25 – EU plans vote on raising tariffs on EVs from China
The European Union plans to hold a vote on the introduction of definitive tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The European Commission announced provisional duties for Chinese electric vehicles of between 17.4 percent and 37.6 percent in July, on top of the standard 10 percent duty applied to car imports, to prevent unfair competition amid continually increasing exports of Chinese EVs to EU countries since 2020. Chinese manufacturers that collaborate with European automakers in the production of electric vehicles could benefit from lower import duties according to the new framework.
The impact
The 27 EU members could approve final tariffs of up to 35.3 percent after a planned round of talks with Chinese negotiators. Chinese officials have expressed their intention to preserve the country’s interests throughout the negotiations process. EU officials rejected previous proposals by China for minimum duties or volume caps on EVs last week. The definitive tariffs will be enforced by the end of October unless 15 member states vote against the measure.
What Else Matters
Flooding in central Europe
At least 23 people have been killed so far after severe floods swept through wide swaths of central Europe over this past weekend. The flooding was prompted by torrential rainfall from Storm Boris and left thousands displaced as dams were breached across the region which spanned parts of Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Romania, Slovakia and Germany. Among the worst-hit areas was Poland’s southwestern border with the Czech Republic, where towns such as Nysa, Poland, and Ostrava, Czech Republic, were heavily impacted.
Watch for: While floods have begun to recede in some of the worst-impacted areas of Poland and the Czech Republic, multiple people remain missing, prompting fears that the death toll may rise. Additional flooding is still anticipated in central Europe, including in Romania where authorities have issued a flood warning for Thursday morning, as well as Italy where heavy rainfall has begun to impact parts of the north. In tandem with ongoing wildfires devastating parts of central and northern Portugal, the severe flooding serves as a stark reminder of the threat climate change poses to Europe as warming temperatures make storm systems like this week’s more likely.
Hezbollah pager explosions
Thousands of paging devices used by members of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group first simultaneously exploded across Lebanon on Tuesday afternoon. Lebanese media reported on overwhelmed hospitals and ambulances transporting dozens of people with injuries to the head, limbs and stomach. The health ministry later confirmed the mass-casualty event, saying that at least a dozen people were killed and approximately 4,000 others were injured, including hundreds in critical condition. Then, less than 24 hours after Tuesday’s attacks, walkie-talkies again exploded across much of Beirut in a similar type of mass-incident that also saw another dozen people killed and hundreds injured. Both Hezbollah and Lebanese government officials have blamed Israel for the attacks, accusing them of planting explosive devices in the various communication devices used by the armed group. Israel has not commented, but analysts suggest them to be consistent with security breaches carried out by the country’s national intelligence, the Mossad.
Watch for: Hezbollah has threatened retaliation against Israel, threatening an expansion of the already large-scale regional conflict following this unprecedented direct attack on Hezbollah’s supply chain. Israel hasn’t so far introduced additional security restrictions and neighboring countries have not introduced airspace closures, which suggest no imminent threat of a large-scale war. Israel’s military, however, says it has approved attack and defense plans for its northern regions and are ready to tighten security should the situation arise. Tensions remain high, with Israel calling the coming days a “new phase” of the war.
Second Donald Trump assassination attempt
The U.S. Secret Service shot at 58-year-old Hawaii resident Ryan Routh when he was spotted holding a gun outside former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago country club in Palm Beach, Fla., while Trump golfed on Sunday afternoon. Secret Service officials said the suspect was roughly 500 yards from Trump when agents spotted his rifle barrel in a bush and opened fire. Routh fled the scene unharmed and drove to neighboring Martin County, where he was apprehended by county police on Interstate 95. Routh has an extensive history of bizarre social media posts with a particular emphasis on supporting Ukraine and its war effort against Russia.
Watch for: Routh visited Ukraine in 2022 after the outbreak of the war, leading some to speculate he was motivated by a desire to stop Trump and his commitments to negotiating with Russia. Routh has already been hit with two federal gun charges for possessing an AK-47-style rifle with the serial number taken off. Many Republican lawmakers have called for additional security around Trump following this incident and July’s assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pa. Trump’s campaign saw a small bump in polling numbers after he was injured in Pennsylvania, but it remains to be seen if the Florida incident will carry the same weight.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 20-27
Sept. 21
- Sri Lanka presidential elections
- Biden hosts Quad summit
Sept. 22
- Germany’s Brandenburg elections
- PTI rally in Lahore
Sept. 24
- UNGA begins
- U.S. FAA chief to testify before Congress on Boeing quality plan
Sept. 25
- EU plans vote on raising tariffs on EVs from China
Sept. 27
- Japan’s ruling LDP to hold party’s leadership election
Sept. 28-Oct. 4
Sept. 30
- Labor contracts for US East Coast ports set to expire
Oct. 1
- Claudia Sheinbaum takes office as new Mexico president
- CBS vice presidential debate
- Myanmar census
Oct. 4
- Vote counting after three stages of elections in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir
Oct. 5-11
Oct. 6
- Brazil municipal elections first round
- Tunisia presidential elections
Oct. 7
- Malaysia court to hear ex-PM Najib’s appeal on house arrest decision
- North Korea parliamentary meeting on constitutional revision
Oct. 10
- Europa Clipper launch window opens
Oct. 12-18
Oct. 17
- European Central Bank meets
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Top photo: Leaders from Australia, India, Japan and the United States last met in May 2023 in Hiroshima. (Photo: Australia Prime Minister’s Office)
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