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Hurricane Beryl has torn through the Caribbean this week leaving at least six people dead and wreaking havoc on multiple islands. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss the devastation as well as the expected impacts to Mexico and Texas, where Beryl appears to be taking aim.
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Week of July 5-12
A Look Ahead
July 5 Iran presidential election runoff
Iran will head to a presidential runoff on Friday between a reformist and a hardliner candidate.
| What’s happened so far Iran held a snap election on June 28 after former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed alongside seven others in a helicopter crash on May 19. The reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and the hardliner Saeed Jalili won the most votes during the election, but both fell short of securing an absolute majority. The election witnessed the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution, with the Interior Ministry saying only 40 percent of the more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted. | The impact Although Pezeshkian secured more votes than Jalili in the first round, analysts suggest that more than 3 million voters who supported another candidate in that round are likely to defer their votes to Jalili in the hopes of him securing the needed 50 percent majority. The voting boycott is expected to continue in the second round, as the population continues to be disillusioned in the aftermath of the deadly government crackdown of the popular protests that began in September 2022. Iranians also find themselves dissatisfied with the continued economic hardships associated with the more than 40 percent inflation rate in the country largely attributed to mismanagement and sanctions. |
July 7 French parliamentary runoff elections
France’s leftist and centrist liberal electoral coalitions will attempt to stave off a far-right majority in the country’s legislature during a second round of parliamentary voting Sunday.
| What’s happened so far The first round of voting saw the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) win roughly 33 percent of votes, with the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition trailing behind with 28 percent and President Emmanuel Macron’s own Ensemble centrist voting bloc slightly surpassing 21 percent. The snap elections, which Macron called following his party’s defeat at the European Parliamentary elections, saw the highest turnout for a National Assembly vote since 1997. Given that no voting bloc approached a majority of the vote, 501 out of 577 constituencies have not yet chosen their deputy. In particular, the high turnout produced a record number of 306 “triangular” constituencies, where three parties reached the vote threshold to advance. | The impact While most polling indicates that RN will not be able to form a majority in the National Assembly, it remains possible if French voters continue to rebel against increased immigration rates and social spending reforms. While RN have undoubtedly moderated their more extreme — and anti-semitic — stances since the days of Jean Marie Le Pen, the specter of 28-year-old RN leader Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister has in part united the country’s leftists and centrists. Out of the 306 triangular constituencies, 210 saw the third place NFP or Ensemble candidate withdraw from the race. Macron’s decision to call a legislative election seems to have backfired, with the most likely outcomes either being a RN-controlled coalition with the Les Republicains party, or an ungovernable tripolar legislature with no majority voting block. |
July 8 Mercosur summit in Asuncion, Paraguay
Paraguay will host the Mercosur summit in Asuncion on Monday, bringing together delegations from member states Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
| What’s happened so far Argentina’s populist President Javier Milei will not be attending the summit in Asuncion due to scheduling issues, his spokesperson said. Foreign Minister Diana Mondino will take Milei’s place at the summit. Media has speculated Milei may be avoiding a face-to-face meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after referring to him as a “corrupt communist” during his presidential campaign in 2023. President Lula has since demanded the Argentinian leader apologize to him and the Brazilian people for having said “a lot of stupid things” about Brazil. The two crossed paths for the first time since Milei assumed presidency at the G7 summit in Italy in June, but did not share a bilateral meeting. | The impact Milei’s absence from the Mercosur summit and continuing online row are indicative of the growing rift between the leaders of the alliance’s two largest members. The spat is likely to deepen as Milei is expected to meet with Brazil’s former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro at a conservative conference in Brazil over the coming weekend. |
July 8 Samsung workers union to strike
On Monday, employees of electronic giant Samsung will begin a three-day general strike in South Korea, which could become the largest the country’s conglomerate has experienced.
| What’s happened so far The strike was announced by the company’s labor union, which has steadily grown since 2020, and follows months of negotiations since January 2024 over benefits, pay raises and transparency over bonuses. Samsung, the world’s largest memory chip producer, experienced its first collective action after the union announced a day of annual leave for a strike June 7. | The impact There are around 26,000 Samsung employees now within the union, which accounts for around 20 percent of the company, but after the union leader spoke on the uncertainty of how many employees will actually take part, it is difficult to tell how significant the general strike will be. While Samsung said that the June walkout did not have an effect on production, continued general strikes could impact production significantly. |
July 8 Philippines, Japan foreign and defense ministers to meet in Manila
Officials from the Philippines and Japan will hold a 2+2 meeting to bolster military ties and discuss regional concerns on Monday.
| What’s happened so far In wake of China’s growing “assertiveness” in regional waters, the Philippines and Japan have been working to strengthen their bilateral ties, most notably in military cooperation. Confrontations between the Philippines and China have increased in the South China Sea, and Japanese authorities are on alert as China sends vessels near the disputed Senkaku Island in the East China Sea. Last year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida gifted coastal surveillance radar and other defense equipment to the Philippines as part of an effort to assist military allies in the region. The upcoming meeting is expected to focus on the negotiation of a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) between the two countries, which would allow troops to enter each other’s territory for training and disaster relief. | The impact With escalating concerns over China’s action, as well as rising tension in the Taiwan Strait, regional actors such as Japan, Philippines and Australia have been working closely with the United States to boost military alliance in the region. Ratification of the RAA would not only be significant in enhancing Japan and Philippines’ bilateral partnership, but also serve to maintain “peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” Philippines’ President Bongbong Marcos says. |
July 9 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C.
Leaders from NATO member nations will gather in Washington on Tuesday for a summit that marks the 75th anniversary of the alliance.
| What’s happened so far Iran held a snap election on June 28 after former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed alongside seven others in a helicopter crash on May 19. The reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and the hardliner Saeed Jalili won the most votes during the election, but both fell short of securing an absolute majority. The election witnessed the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution, with the Interior Ministry saying only 40 percent of the more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted. | The impact Although Pezeshkian secured more votes than Jalili in the first round, analysts suggest that more than 3 million voters who supported another candidate in that round are likely to defer their votes to Jalili in the hopes of him securing the needed 50 percent majority. The voting boycott is expected to continue in the second round, as the population continues to be disillusioned in the aftermath of the deadly government crackdown of the popular protests that began in September 2022. Iranians also find themselves dissatisfied with the continued economic hardships associated with the more than 40 percent inflation rate in the country largely attributed to mismanagement and sanctions. |
What Else Matters
Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record this week (members’ link) off the coast of Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The system, which formed west-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands on June 27, made landfall on Carriacou Island on Monday. Beryl has caused significant impacts across Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia, with multiple reports of infrastructure damages, travel disruptions and power and communications outages. At least seven people have died from storm-related impacts in the southeast Caribbean, according to local officials.
| Watch for: As of Thursday the storm is heading to the Cayman Islands with destructive 120 mph winds. Beryl is expected to remain at least a Category 3 hurricane for the rest of the week and could reach Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula for a second landfall over the weekend, bringing severe disruptions to much of the Caribbean nations, and potentially to areas on the southern U.S. border. Climate experts and meteorology bodies forecast an intense Atlantic hurricane season due to abnormally warm water temperatures, with high chances of tropical storms rapidly strengthening to Category 3 hurricanes or higher. |
Ukraine thwarts Russia’s Kharkiv offensive
Russia’s surprise northern offensive into Ukraine’s Kharkiv region launched in early May has largely fizzled with little to no progress to note. After making early gains along multiple points along the border, Russia was quickly stopped by Ukrainian resistance that created a frontline that has held stagnant ever since. Fighting has remained focused around the two main flashpoints of Lyptsi and Vovchansk for weeks now as the frontlines harden, with Vovchansk marking the latest Ukrainian city erased from the map after being enveloped by frontline fighting.
| Watch for: On a tactical level, the situation surrounding Russian forces in Vovchansk remains murky, with unconfirmed reports indicating heavy losses and significant numbers of trapped and surrendering forces, particularly from an elite Russian airborne unit. On a strategic level, Moscow has attained very little it can paint as a victory. While capturing Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv was always virtually impossible with the number of soldiers Moscow dedicated to the offensive, it has failed in its stated goal to create a border buffer zone. Meanwhile, western countries have relaxed cross-border targeting restrictions imposed on Kyiv. Kharkiv remains out of artillery range, as it was for most of 2022, and Russia continues to have to rely on glide bomb airstrikes to hit the city. While Ukraine did cycle forces to the north to thwart the offensive, this has not resulted in any fundamental shift in the force balance along the eastern front where Russia’s gains are grinding at heavy cost. |
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 5-12
July 5
- Iran presidential election runoff
July 7
- Second round of French National Assembly elections
July 8
- Philippines, Japan foreign and defense ministers to meet in Manila
- Samsung workers union to strike
- Mercosur Summit in Paraguay
July 9
- NATO Summit in Washington, D.C.
July 11
- Trump sentencing
July 13-19
July 14
- Arrival of the Olympic flame in Paris
- Copa América Final in Miami Gardens, Fla.
July 15
- Rwanda general elections
- Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
July 16
- 2024 Major League Baseball All-Star Game
July 18
- Ukrainian government to start notifying citizens for conscription
July 20-26
July 20
- Colombia installs new National Congress
July 24
- Israeli PM Netanyahu to address joint session of U.S. Congress
July 26
- 2024 Summer Olympics begin in Paris
July 27-Aug. 2
July 28
- Venezuela presidential elections
Aug. 1
- Iceland president takes office
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Top photo: Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian area his supporters gather at Shiroudi Stadium in Tehran on July 3. (Photo: Rulebased / Wikimedia Commons)