Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least 15 people were injured Sunday when a man firebombed a pro-Israel rally in Boulder, Colo. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the latest developments involving the suspect’s family and how the attack has renewed fears among the Jewish community.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of June 6-13
A Look Ahead
June 6 – Pentagon to start kicking out transgender troops
According to new guidance from the U.S. Department of Defense, transgender military members must self-identify and voluntarily leave by Friday.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump has consistently taken aim at transgender people since entering office. In 2017, he banned transgender military recruitment, which former President Joe Biden reversed in 2021. Upon retaking office, Trump signed an executive order that said the U.S. government will only recognize two sexes and that they are not changeable. A Supreme Court ruling in May cleared the way for the ban to take effect. The Department of Defense says this affects around 4,000 service members with the belief that 1,000 would voluntarily self-identify.
The impact
The military will begin involuntarily removing transgender service members after June 6. Guidance calls for service members to out suspected transgender people through things like requests related to hair grooming, social media posts or even private conversations. It’s a continuation of the administration’s focus on the culture war, which also led to the elimination of diversity initiatives. The moves limit the pool of people who can or would join the military. But if Trump continues to think it’s a winning political strategy, we may see even more similar actions to appease his base.
June 7 – WorldPride in Washington, D.C.
With events already underway, international LGBTQ+ celebration WorldPride is being hosted this year in Washington, D.C., and will culminate in a parade on Saturday and a rally and march on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Organizers originally anticipated as many as 3 million attendees for this year’s festivities, but the Trump administration’s recent attacks on transgender rights and diversity, equity and inclusion efforts have unnerved some corporate sponsors and would-be international visitors into backing out. Local business owners and event organizers are still hoping for a big turnout, but are wary of ongoing tensions between the LGBTQ+ community and the current presidency dampening enthusiasm.
The impact
D.C. city officials say they are ready to welcome visitors for WorldPride, with extra officers from other jurisdictions called in and Metro extending service. Large crowds are expected to gather especially for Saturday’s parade starting in the U Street neighborhood, and Sunday’s rally at the Lincoln Memorial, followed by a march toward the U.S. Capitol. Police originally requested to close off Dupont Circle this weekend, a park at the center of D.C.’s historic LGBTQ+ neighborhood, but backed off after an outcry from local officials and community leaders.
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June 8 – Italy referendums
Italian citizens will vote on Sunday and Monday on five referendums concerning key issues related to labor and citizenship.
What’s happened so far
The Italian abrogative referendum will allow citizens to decide whether or not they wish to cancel five current laws, including four on labor and one key aspect regarding citizenship. Initiated by leader of the centrist +Europa party, Riccardo Magi, the citizenship law change seeks to reduce from ten to five years the period needed for non-EU nationals to live in Italy before being eligible to apply for citizenship.
The impact
Each referendum requires a majority of votes in order to officially pass, meaning that at least 50 percent of all Italian citizens eligible to vote, including those living abroad, will need to vote in these elections in order for a change to be applied to the Constitution. Analysts are particularly interested in the citizenship proposal, which, if passed, would mark a major shift in Italian immigration policy that has long been considered to be one of the strictest in Europe.
June 10 – Impeachment proceedings begin for Philippines’ vice president
On Tuesday, the Philippines’ Senate will decide whether to proceed with the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte after the lower house voted to impeach her in February.
What’s happened so far
Sara Duterte, daughter of Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte, was impeached by the House of Representatives over a range of accusations, including the misuse of public funds and alleged involvement in plotting to assassinate incumbent President Bongbong Marcos. The petition is now set to be reviewed and voted upon by the Senate, which will convene as an impeachment court if the motion passes. If found guilty, Duterte would face removal from office and become the first vice president to be impeached in Philippines’ history.
The impact
After Marcos and Duterte won a landslide victory in 2022’s elections the rift between Philippines’ two most powerful families has grown. While the impeachment was thought to be damaging to Sara Duterte’s political future, the Duterte alliance was hit by another blow when the former president was arrested by the ICC over killings in his war on drugs in May. However, results from the midterm election showed stronger-than-expected support of Duterte’s camp, again tilting the precarious power balance. Some analysts have raised concerns regarding whether the impeachment trial could cross over to the newly elected 20th congress as authority of the current Senate is set to expire June 13.
June 11 – India monsoon season expected to pick back up
Monsoon rains across India are expected to pick up again Wednesday with intense rainfall returning after a brief respite, forecasters say.
What’s happened so far
India’s annual monsoon rains dump vast amounts of water across the country like clockwork. As much as 80 percent of the entire year’s rainfall happens in this period, with an above-average inundation forecast for this year. The seasonal deluge provides a crucial lifeline to farmers who use its consistent rainfall to water their crops. In most of India, the constant downpour brings flooded streets, disruption to transportation and daily life and occasional disasters, such as collapsed bridges. At least 36 people have been killed in the monsoon season so far, which arrived earlier than usual this year, reports say.
The impact
No matter how well prepared states and communities are, each year’s monsoon rains bring a casualty toll, and often significant flooding to cities. Transport infrastructure is overwhelmed, with roads flooded and metro station pumps unable to meet sudden heavier deluges. Occasional stalls in the monsoon, which is known for being remarkably stable, are not unheard of, and forecasters will be keeping an eye for more of them over the coming months.
June 11 – Argentina President Javier Milei to visit Jerusalem
Argentina’s President Javier Milei will receive the Genesis prize at the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The awarding Genesis Prize Foundation (GPF) cites Milei’s “unequivocal support of Israel” and his economic measures for Argentina as the reason for the recognition, after his government designated Palestinian militant group Hamas as a terrorist organization over the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. As part of Milei’s efforts to tighten relations with Israel, he has pledged to move the Argentinian embassy to Jerusalem — a move that would signify recognition of the contested city as Israel’s capital. He has also supported Israel in UN votes and reopened the investigation into the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina synagogue bombing in 1994. The Argentinian president has also suggested he may convert to Judaism in the future.
The impact
Milei will receive the award from Knesset speaker and GPF chairman Amir Ohana in a ceremony at the chamber in Jerusalem, during which he will deliver a speech to members of parliament. The foundation will award $1 million USD to the Argentinian leader to be donated to programs that encourage relations between Latin American counties and Israel and to promote economic reform in the continent. The recipients of the sum have not been disclosed so far.
June 11 – Poland’s prime minister holds a confidence vote
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is set to hold a confidence vote in the country’s parliament on Wednesday after a bruising presidential election defeat for his centrist Civic Coalition last week.
What’s happened so far
Law and Justice Party candidate and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki won the runoff vote of the country’s presidential election, narrowly defeating Tusk-backed Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. The win has been a major boost for the country’s right-wing Law and Justice Party, currently in opposition after an electoral defeat in the country’s parliamentary elections, and has ushered in what Tusk called a “new political reality” that threatens to further stall the momentum of his reformist government. The country’s presidency holds a powerful sway over the country’s political direction, with the ability to slow down or block reform actions proposed by the government.
The impact
Tusk is expected to win the vote, given he has a governing majority in the country’s Sejm, but a collapse of his coalition and a loss would be devastating for him and would plunge his administration into a political crisis. Even if he wins, he will have to see through the remainder of this term until scheduled elections in 2027 dealing with his political opposition, renewed by this victory and spoiling for a fight over every part of his political agenda.
What Else Matters
Ukraine attack on Russia
Ukraine struck one of its most significant blows of the war Sunday with a surprise drone attack largely targeting Russia’s strategic bomber force at bases across the Eurasian country. Moscow’s fleet of Tu-195, Tu-160 and Tu-22 have been among the more effective weapons in striking Ukrainian territory, as they are the primary launch platform for the waves of cruise missiles that have proved deadlier than the waves of Shahed drones that have become commonplace. Ukraine’s security service claims, with analysts corroborating, the damaging or destruction of planes as far as Belaya, more than 2,600 miles inland from the border, and Olenya, more than 1,000 miles north. Kyiv claimed to damage or destroy 41 aircraft, including Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control craft.
Watch for: The most immediate impact to be expected would be a massive Russian attack in reprisal for the humiliating strike, similar to how Moscow reacted in 2023 to a raid on Bryansk. While the exact extent of damage is unclear (the Russians have only confirmed some planes were set on fire, but the blazes were extinguished), any significant blow to the strategic bomber force would greatly impact Russia’s ability to prosecute the war in the fashion it has been to this point. The destruction of an A-50 would similarly hamper Russia’s ability to manage its aircraft within the combat zones. These strikes seem unlikely to impact, or be impacted by, the peace process, since Russia’s insistence in Istanbul that any deal legitimize their illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories makes any cessation of hostilities unlikely.
Attack on pro-Israel event in Boulder, Colo.
Fifteen people were injured when 45-year-old Egyptian national Mohamed Sabry Soliman used a makeshift flamethrower device and Molotov cocktails to attack a group of pro-Israel demonstrators in the town center of Boulder, Colo., this past Sunday. The “Run for Their Lives” gathering was a regular event taking place on Boulder’s Pearl Street pedestrian mall in support of Israel’s efforts to free the October 7th hostages. Soliman drove from his home in Colorado Springs that morning with a stop at a local hardware store to acquire supplies for the attack. Soliman yelled “Free Palestine” when carrying out the attack, and has reportedly told police he had planned an attack on a “Zionist” gathering in Colorado for roughly a year.
Watch for: Details have emerged that Soliman was in the United States on a recently-expired work visa, prompting conservative calls for stricter immigration enforcement. Soliman lived with his family, who have now been detained by ICE. The Boulder attack took place roughly two weeks after the murder of two Israeli Embassy employees carried out by a pro-Palestinian activist in Washington, DC. The attacks paired together have sparked fears amongst the Jewish community that calls to “globalize the intifada” are being taken literally.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 6-13
June 6
- Pentagon to start kicking out transgender troops
- Eid al-Adha begins
June 7
- Belmont Stakes
June 8
- WorldPride 2025 in Washington, D.C.
- Italian referendum
June 9
- Apple Worldwide Developers Conference
- Transit authority strike begins in Montreal
June 10
- Pakistan federal budget to be presented
June 11
- Argentina President Javier Milei to visit Jerusalem
June 12
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Kinmen
June 13
- Court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin’s prison term
June 14-20
June 14
- Military parade in Washington, D,C.
June 15
- Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar to resign
June 16
- Court case of jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu
- Bangladesh investigators ordered to bring former PM Hasina before special tribunal
June 18
- First hearing on Lee Jae-myung’s South Korea election violation case
June 19
- Deadline for bids to buy Pakistan International Airlines
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Chaiyi
- Current suspension of Air India flights to Tel Aviv ends
June 21-27
June 23
- India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted
June 24
- NYC primary elections
- Pakistan’s airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft to be lifted
- NTSB to hold hearing to determine cause of 2024 Boeing 737 MAX 9 mid-air emergency
June 28-July 4
June 29
- NYC Pride parade
June 30
- Myanmar junta extends temporary ceasefire
July 1
- French authorities announce plans to ban cigarette smoking in various public places
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Top photo: India’s monsoon rains, which arrived earlier than usual this year, are expected to pick up again on Wednesday with intense rainfall. (Photo: Mumbai Traffic Police / @MTPHereToHelp)
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