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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The next episode of the Factal Forecast podcast is delayed until May 8. In the meantime, be sure to check out this month’s edition of The Debrief. Asia Pacific lead Vivian Wang discusses how the March 28 earthquake exposed the fragile political fabric of Myanmar, crystalizing the conflict briefly as warring parties mobilized disaster response.
A Look Ahead
May 1 – May Day
Worldwide demonstrations are planned for Thursday to mark International Workers’ Day.
What’s happened so far
Greek public and private sector unions have called for a one-day strike, with significant impacts expected for public transport, and French workers will also take to the streets with an annual march in Paris likely to draw upwards of 100,000 people. Across the United States, protests against the Trump administration will also take place, opposing what critics have called his “war on working people.”
The impact
Last year, French police made a modest 45 arrests as crowds waned from retirement age hike-fueled demonstrations in 2023 that saw nearly 800,000 people participate in marches. Meanwhile, the scope of Thursday’s protests in the United States is unclear, after more than 1,300 “Hands Off” rallies nationwide last month drew large crowds.
May 2 – Congo and Rwanda vowed to come up with a draft peace deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda last week agreed to draft a peace agreement by no later than Friday.
What’s happened so far
The foreign ministers of the DRC and Rwanda met in Washington last Friday and signed a U.S.-brokered declaration of principles, committing each country to respect the other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, to address security concerns, to promote regional economic integration and to facilitate the return of internally displaced people in eastern DRC. The agreement marked a step toward normalizing relations between the two nations, which have long been in conflict. Most recently, DRC and U.S. officials have accused Rwanda of backing the M23 militant group in the DRC, an accusation that Rwanda has denied.
The impact
The agreement also signaled an expectation that investments will be made to transform the regional economy, including some facilitated by the U.S. government and American companies. The DRC is rich in mineral resources, which Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has sought to leverage to calm hostilities. Speaking at a signing ceremony for the agreement between Rwanda and the DRC, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that a lasting peace in the region “will open the door for great U.S. and broader Western investment, which will bring about economic opportunities and prosperity.”
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May 3 – Australia election
Voters across Australia will go to the polls on Saturday to cast their ballots in the country’s 2025 federal election as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks a second term in power.
What’s happened so far
Labor Party leader and current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the election in late March seeking an extension of his mandate and kicking off a terse and sharp-elbowed campaign as the opposition seeks to regain power and consign him to a one-term premiership. Cost of living, healthcare and home ownership debates have dominated a broad campaign with each party setting out promises. Polls show the Australian Labor Party leading the Liberal–National Coalition headed by Peter Dutton, who has seen his personal approval dip. Voting is compulsory in Australia and either party will need 76 seats of the 150-member lower house to keep control. Elections will also be held to fill 40 of the country’s 76 Senate seats.
The impact
If neither party wins a majority of seats they will need to form a working relationship with smaller parties and individual lawmakers to pass legislation and effectively govern. Australia’s last hung parliament was in 2010.
May 3 – Singapore general election
Some 2.75 million Singaporean voters will cast their ballots in a national election for 97 parliamentary seats on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
This election in Singapore will be its first since current Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took over from his predecessor Lee Hsien Loong last year, who was in power for two decades. The ruling People’s Action Party has won every election in the city-state since it became self-ruling in 1959, but saw its worst electoral performance in the last election in 2020, losing 10 seats in Parliament to the opposition. Rising cost of living, recent tax hikes, housing and healthcare are issues at the forefront of this vote.
The impact
The ruling People’s Action Party is overwhelmingly expected to maintain power, but even modest gains for the opposition in a country where one party has held the majority for decades would be impactful. Nonetheless, Singapore is wary of foreign interference in this election, asking Meta to take down Facebook posts by foreigners who officials allege are trying to influence polls.
May 4 – Romania election
Months after the country’s top court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election, Romanian voters will again cast their ballots on Sunday to attempt to pick a new leader.
What’s happened so far
The Romanian political scene was thrown into turmoil in December when the constitutional court nullified the first round of voting that saw far-right populist Călin Georgescu take first place and ordered a new election amid accusations of foreign interference. That decision sparked months of protests, while Georgescu was charged in February on six counts, including anti-constitutional acts and misreporting his finances, and barred from running in the re-do. In his stead, polling has consistently shown fellow far-right candidate George Simion leading the field, with former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan and one-time acting president Crin Antonescu all competing for second.
The impact
With no candidate likely to reach 50 percent, a runoff between the top-two vote getters is slated for May 18. A win for Simion would give U.S. President Trump a staunch ally in Eastern Europe and mark a stark turn toward Euroskepticism, while Dan and Antonescu have stressed the need for continued strong ties with NATO and the EU.
May 7 – New Pope vote
Roman Catholic Church cardinals from around the world will gather in Rome on Wednesday to elect a successor to Pope Francis, who died this month at the age of 88. The so-called conclave, where voting members of the church are isolated from the outside world to limit interference, will bring together representatives of the globe’s 1.4 billion Catholics from 72 countries, the most diverse group in the church’s history.
What’s happened so far
Pope Francis led the Catholic Church for 12 years, shifting the institution’s positions to more progressive stances on a wide range of issues, including opposition to the death penalty, support and lobbying for refugees and tolerance of same-sex relationships. In a book published in November, he expressed support for Palestinians, calling for an investigation into whether Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip constitutes genocide.
The impact
Cardinals have already begun arriving at the Vatican, numbering 190 out of a total of 252 as of Monday, according to the church. Of those, just 135 meet the eligibility requirement of being under the age of 80. A two-thirds majority is required to elect a new leader. According to The New York Times, there are no front runners in the election, though prominent figures aligned with Francis’ politics include his second-in-command Pietro Parolin of Italy and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Peter Erdo of Hungary stands out among contenders with more conservative leanings.
May 8 – Russian Victory Day ceasefire
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire, starting midnight Thursday and running through to midnight on May 11, as Russia marks the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
What’s happened so far
The Kremlin said that all combat activities will be paused during the truce period, adding that it expected Ukraine to follow suit and abide by its proposed ceasefire. On May 9, Russia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating 80 years since the end of World War II with large military parades in major cities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had previously agreed to a U.S.-brokered, 30-day, unconditional ceasefire with Russia, called the latest proposal “manipulation,” arguing that if the Kremlin wanted peace, it would sign up to an immediate 30-day ceasefire.
The impact
This is now the second Russian proposal for a short-term ceasefire coinciding with a major holiday in recent days. The first, which occurred during Orthodox Easter celebrations, resulted in a pause to long-range strikes but was ultimately marred by tit-for-tat accusations of violations. Judging from the Kremlin’s rhetoric, this latest proposal is a move to position itself as open to peace negotiations, while claiming that Kyiv is refusing to engage. Ukraine continues to call for at least a 30-day, unconditional ceasefire, a proposal that Russia continues to reject on the basis it does not take into account Russian interests. This latest truce proposal has reiterated how far apart the Russian and Ukrainian camps are in terms of their approach to dialogue. Ukraine is likely to subscribe to the May truce, but, if the previous Easter ceasefire is anything to go by, it is unlikely to last the proposed duration.
What Else Matters
Europe blackout
Millions of people across the Iberian Peninsula lost power on Monday, leading to massive issues with communication and transportation. In Spain and Portugal, many stores and businesses had to close for the day. Hospitals had to resort to generator power. Tens of thousands of passengers had to be rescued after trains stopped running. Spanish media has attributed at least seven deaths to the blackout due to fires caused by candles or carbon monoxide poisoning from generator fumes. The cause of the outage has yet to be officially determined but a few things have been ruled out, including a power line fire in France and an excess of renewable energy.
Watch for: Despite being initially ruled out, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for investigations into the possibility of a cyberattack. Even if ruled out, it shows what kind of chaos is possible if a huge cyberattack on a country’s power grid ever occurred. The blackout also showed how quickly misinformation spread, with some news agencies publishing articles attributing fake quotes by Portugal’s grid operator about the cause.
Guyana protests over girl’s death
The death of an 11-year-old girl in Guyana has led to clashes with the police, forcing the government to impose a curfew. Last week, Adrianna Younge was found dead in a pool at the Double Day Hotel in Tuschen. Her family, without evidence, says she was abducted and sacrificed as part of a religious ritual. Local news said protesters set the hotel on fire as well as the home of the hotel’s owner, who was charged and later released for the 2012 death of a young man at the same pool. Younge’s family blamed the resort for her death and the police for mishandling the investigation. The police did acknowledge some of the initial information they released was wrong and a police commander was placed on leave. However, the family says independent pathologists concluded she died of drowning following an autopsy. Protests over the girl’s death on Monday led to riot police being deployed and firing live ammunition, which left two people dead.
Watch for: Guyanese President Irfaan Ali has called for calm, saying there will be a review and report on the entire process. This incident has sparked anger because of a feeling of injustice, especially after the 2012 death at the same hotel. If police continue to be hostile against protesters, the demonstrations could grow to a point where they are more about police brutality than Younge’s death. If that happens, things have the potential to get worse before they get better.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
May 2-9
May 2
- Congo and Rwanda vow to come up with a draft peace deal
May 3
- Australia election
- Singapore election
May 4
- First round of Romania presidential election
May 6
- Airport Security Middle East conference in Dubai
May 7
- Conclave for new pope
May 8
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hsinchu
- Russia ceasefire begins
May 10-16
May 12
- Philippine general election
- Sean Combs’s sex trafficking trial begins
May 13
- Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 15
- India-Nordic summit
- U.S. Supreme Court to hear challenge to Trump’s birthright citizenship order
May 17-23
May 17
- Eurovision final in Basel
May 18
- Portugal snap legislative election
- Polish presidential election
May 19
- EU-UK summit
May 21
- Europa League final in Bilbao
May 22
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taitung
- Possible Canada Post strike
May 24-30
May 25
- Venezuela parliamentary election
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Top photo: Workers around the globe, like those pictured above in Minneapolis in 2015, will hold demonstrations to mark International Workers Day, also known as May Day. (Photo: Fibonacci Blue / Wikimedia Commons)
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