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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday after President Trump announced he was pausing most of the reciprocal tariffs that have shaken the markets. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Rebecca Bratek discuss why China’s 125 percent tariff was reportedly left in place and the administration’s claim that the pause was part of Trump’s plan for negotiations all along.
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Week of April 11-18
A Look Ahead
April 12 – U.S.-Iran talks
President Donald Trump said a “very big meeting” will take place in Oman on Saturday between the United States and Iran over its nuclear program.
What’s happened so far
In 2006, the UN Security Council demanded Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment program and imposed sanctions over International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) allegations the country was secretly studying the development of a nuclear explosive device. President Barack Obama a decade later struck a deal that limited the program and allowed inspections of its facilities in exchange for sanction relief. Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018, and Tehran then began to stockpile near-weapons grade uranium, according to the IAEA. On Monday, Trump announced talks were underway in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who gave a mild endorsement of the talks.
The impact
Iran’s foreign minister, in an op-ed with The Washington Post, called the meeting “as much an opportunity as it is a test,” saying any sort of military buildup is a non-starter and that his country would “never accept coercion.” He also said the country wants to push back on concerns that its nuclear program is not for peaceful intentions. If talks go well, there could be a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear problem. However, if they go south, the United States could side with Netanyahu and begin attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, which Trump may have been talking about when he said Iran would “be in great danger” if the talks fall through.
April 12 – Gabon election
Voters in Gabon will head to the polls on Saturday in the first election since a 2023 coup that ousted President Ali Bongo, ending a 56-year-rule of the Bongo family.
What’s happened so far
Gabon’s interim President Brice Oligui Nguema has been leading the country since the coup, introducing a number of initiatives to tackle corruption. In November, a referendum on a new constitution set a maximum of two seven-year presidential terms, with no prime minister.
The impact
The new constitution, while delivering on promises made post-coup, means Nguema is able to run for president in this month’s elections, leading to concerns that the transitional leader wants to hold on to power for as long as possible. A Commonwealth Observer Group has since arrived in capital Libreville, welcoming the efforts of the Gabonese authorities in organizing the election and recognizing the new constitution marked a “significant milestone in Gabon’s democracy.” The real challenge will come after the vote with a possible win by a military officer, who will then have to ensure the country moves from military rule to a true democracy for the first time in decades.
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April 13 – Ecuadorian presidential runoff
Conservative incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist challenger Luisa Gonzalez will face-off in the second round of Ecuador’s presidential election Sunday with both candidates almost neck-and-neck in the polls.
What’s happened so far
In the first round of voting in February, neither candidate obtained enough votes for an outright victory, disappointing the supporters of Noboa who had been buoyed by early exit polls. During her campaign, Gonzalez leveled criticism at Noboa for his perceived failure to deliver on key policy promises, including addressing the ongoing security crisis in the Andean country. For his part, Noboa, who has only governed for a year and a half, argued he has not had enough time to implement substantive change and criticized his rival over plans to recognize the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro.
The impact
Undoubtedly the greatest challenge facing the winner of the runoff is the security crisis in Ecuador. Noboa’s policies, which included emergency measures to deploy the military to the streets, have done little to curtail endemic violent crime in Ecuador. There are also concerns surrounding threats of violence against the candidates after the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023.
April 14 – Ontario Legislature to begin 44th session of Parliament
Ontario’s legislature is set to begin a new session Monday with the province on the front line of an escalating global trade war.
What’s happened so far
Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford called a snap general election for Canada’s most populous province on Feb. 27. Propelled by his outspoken response to President Donald Trump’s anti-Canada hostility, he and his Progressive Conservative party won a third consecutive term in power, slightly increasing their already comfortable majority. Ontario has been at the forefront of Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs, with the province’s powerful liquor board of control pulling U.S. alcohol products from its shelves. But even its firebrand premier has limits, as he backed away from sharp increases in electricity prices that would affect U.S. consumers.
The impact
Canada’s continued tensions with the United States and the potential economic fallout are expected to dominate domestic politics in Ontario, but it’s likely any major response will be on hold until Canada’s federal election on April 28. Polls show Liberal Party leader and current Prime Minister Mark Carney hoping to pull off an upset win, reversing the lead of his main rival and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
April 14 – South Korea’s Yoon’s criminal trial hearing
On Monday, South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol will stand in the first formal hearing of the criminal trial against charges of insurrection over his short-lived marital law declaration.
What’s happened so far
In January, Yoon became the first incumbent president in the country’s history to be arrested for criminal charges, after prosecutors indicted him over his imposition of martial law. According to Yoon’s lawyer, the declaration was not intended to paralyze the country, but only “to tell the public of the “legislative dictatorship of the huge opposition party.” Insurrection is one of the very few criminal charges from which a South Korean president does not have immunity. If convicted, it is punishable by life imprisonment or death, though South Korea has not executed anyone in decades.
The impact
While the criminal trial runs independently, South Korea’s Constitutional Court did recognize the nature of the martial law declaration as unconstitutional in its ruling to formally remove Yoon from office last week, which could harm his defense that he was “exercising his presidential power.” Analysts also say it is now possible for the prosecutors to charge Yoon with abuse of power, as he has been stripped of presidential immunity. As South Korea’s criminal trials usually conclude within six months of detention of the defendant, there are also concerns that the trial will drag on with Yoon being out of detention since early March.
April 15 – U.S. vaccine advisory meeting
The Advisory Committee of Immunization Practices (ACIP) will hold a meeting Tuesday to vote on vaccine recommendations for the United States.
What’s happened so far
Experts are set to convene after a February meeting was postponed following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation as health secretary under the new Trump administration. ACIP’s regular meetings take place three times a year in order to review scientific data and advise the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention on immunization practices. The ACIP’s agenda includes discussions on 11 vaccines for epidemiological diseases including measles, coronavirus, mpox and influenza.
The impact
A measles outbreak (members’ link), mainly across West Texas and New Mexico, that erupted in January has left at least three people dead and more than 600 infected as of early April. Some cases have been detected in another 20 states — more than double the total cases confirmed across the country in 2024, according to the CDC. Similarly, an influenza outbreak is impacting the country’s agricultural sector, with a deadly N7N9 bird flu strain confirmed in March for the first time since 2017. The new U.S. administration has been criticized for adopting an austerity approach to public health funding amid the ongoing epidemiology crisis, with mass Health and Human Services and FDA layoffs rolled out earlier this month. The FDA has suspended a program to improve testing for influenza in dairy products as part of the cuts, according to Reuters.
April 17 – Canadian prime minister candidate debates
The leaders from Canada’s five largest political parties will meet in Montreal beginning Thursday for back-to-back nights of bilingual debate ahead of the April 28 general election.
What’s happened so far
Sitting Liberal Party Prime Minister Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau in March after winning an internal party election. Fueled by his party’s strongest polling in years, he called a federal election shortly after. Since the campaign launched, the Liberals have consistently seen their polling lead grow versus Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada. The Tories were considered favorites going into 2025 before the resignation of Trudeau and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tumultuous tariff threats. The debates will take place at the Radio Canada public broadcaster headquarters in Montreal, beginning in French on Thursday, before the English debate on Friday.
The impact
Thursday’s debate will shine a spotlight on the quality of Carney’s questionable French. Despite fears that this would hurt him with Quebec voters, the Liberals are polling exceptionally well in the Francophone province. Canadian trade policy and the Trump trade war are expected to dominate the discourse, while housing affordability and health care are also at the top of Canadian voter priorities. The leaders of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois will likely attempt to make waves as they bleed support to the Liberals, with both leaders facing the possibility of losing their seats in their respective electoral districts.
What Else Matters
Tariff war
Fears of a global trade war persist after President Donald Trump raised the tax rate on Chinese imports Wednesday to 125 percent, while also announcing a 90-day “pause” on more sweeping reciprocal tariffs on other nations, pending negotiations on new trade deals. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy has also led to significant volatility in the stock market, with both the Dow and Nasdaq closing Tuesday at their lowest levels since January 2024, and the S&P 500 at its lowest point in nearly a year, only to rebound sharply Wednesday in the wake of the president’s latest announcement.
Watch for: It remains to be seen what kind of deals the United States will be able to reach with its trade partners, with some countries opting to institute retaliatory tariffs like China, Canada, and the European Union, while others like Australia and Singapore said they would decline to enact new measures. Economists have warned of a possible recession amid the uncertainty, while consumers may see higher prices on various imports as businesses pass down increased costs.
Algeria-Mali diplomatic crisis
Tensions between Algeria and Mali have been escalating after, earlier this month, the Algerian military shot down a drone that had reportedly entered its national airspace. Mali later filed a complaint against Algeria, accusing Algiers of “sponsoring terror.” The incident led Mali and its allies Niger and Burkina Faso to recall their ambassadors from Algiers. This week, in a further escalation, Algeria and Mali closed their airspaces from each other, alleging repeated violations.
Watch for: After years of Algeria serving as a mediator in Mali, the diplomatic crisis has recently been deepening, with Algeria denouncing Mali’s use of Russian mercenaries in its fight against militancy. Since two military coups in 2020 and 2021, Mali has cut links with France and strengthened its ties with Russia. Meanwhile, Malian authorities accuse Algeria of supporting Tuareg armed groups. It remains unclear how the crisis will unfold, with no third parties so far coming forward to help with mediation.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
April 11-18
April 11
- U.S. to require Canadians who are in the country for longer than 30 days to register with government
April 12
- Gabon presidential election
- U.S.-Iran talks
April 13
- Ecuador presidential runoff
- First official hearing in South Korean President Yoon’s insurrection trial
April 14
- Ontario Legislature to begin 44th session of Parliament
- South Korea’s Yoon’s insurrection hearing
- El Salvador’s leader Nayib Bukele visits White House
April 15
- U.S. vaccine advisory meeting
April 16
- Canadian party leader debates
April 17
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits White House
April 19-25
April 19
- Stanley Cup playoffs begin
April 20
- Easter
April 24
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hualien
April 26-May 2
April 28
- Canadian election
April 29
- National earthquake drill in Mexico
April 30
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Keelung
May 3-9
May 3
- Australia election
May 4
- First round of Romania presidential election
May 5
- Sean Combs’s sex trafficking trial
May 8
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hsinchu
Top photo: Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry prepared to sit down with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna, Austria, on July 14, 2014. (Photo: State Department photo / Public Domain)
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