Factal
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Rebecca Bratek discuss Trump’s tariff war, plus more on the U.S. and Iran holding nuclear talks, elections in Gabon and Ecuador and a court hearing for South Korea’s impeached President Yoon.
Our next episode will be out May 1, 2025. Our editors are always on duty. Major alerts are posted to X/Twitter, Bluesky, Threads and Mastodon.
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These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Rebecca Bratek, Jeff Landset, Jess Fino, James Morgan and Hua Hsieh. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:44 Tariff war – an interview with Factal Senior Editor Rebecca Bratek
- 5:29 US-Iran talks
- 7:23 Gabon election
- 8:39 Ecuadorian presidential runoff
- 9:56 South Korea’s Yoon’s criminal trial hearing
- 11:22 Next episode out May 1, 2025
- 11:41 Credits
Transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is April 10, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got Trump’s tariff war, the U.S. and Iran holding nuclear talks, elections in Gabon and Ecuador and a court hearing for South Korea’s impeached President Yoon.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Tariff war
Interview featuring Senior Editor Rebecca Bratek
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the latest on the tariff war. For more on that I’ve got fellow senior editor Rebecca Bratek.
JIMMY: Hello, Rebecca! So glad to have you back on the podcast.
REBECCA: Hello. Great to be back.
JIMMY: Well, Rebecca, let’s just jump into this. There’s been an awful lot of news in the recent weeks about tariffs and I’m hoping you can get us up to speed. So, can you start by maybe giving us a recap on, you know, what’s going on?
REBECCA: Yeah, absolutely. So Trump, last week, announced a sweeping set of what he has called reciprocal tariffs against more than 80 countries that the United States trades with. He called it “Liberation Day” and said it was due to a national emergency of trade deficits. Under that plan, the tariffs included a baseline tariff of 10% on all our trading partners and some higher-targeted tariffs on some countries, like China, the European Union and Taiwan. But yeah, that’s where we’re at.
JIMMY: And what’s the latest? There been any new developments?
REBECCA: So today, Wednesday, when we’re recording this, Trump announced on his Truth Social account that he is actually instating a 90-day pause on all those tariffs that he announced, except for on China, which he has raised to 125%. After he announced that on Truth Social, his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that all countries will go to a 10% baseline level while negotiations over tariffs continue. Bessent also said that Trump chose to increase the tariffs on China due to their insistence on escalation, and also said that the pause was part of Trump’s plan all along for negotiations. Trump’s press secretary also invoked “The Art of the Deal” when announcing the pause to reporters at the White House earlier today, too.
JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?
REBECCA: Yeah, so the markets have swung pretty wildly ever since Trump started announcing these measures. The NASDAQ and the Dow ended Tuesday at its lowest levels since January 2024, but they showed some bounceback earlier today before Trump made his new announcement. After the announcement, the Dow surged more than 2,000 points for its biggest rally in five years. And then Wall Street banks are also responding. Goldman Sachs said that even though, with the pause, the U.S. still faces a significant recession risk, they told clients in a note that they see a 45% chance of a recession, still, over the next 12 months. Among that, for our trading partners, which you know, obviously everything is still changing, but some countries have instituted retaliatory tariffs against us: China, with 84% on all imports of U.S. products, Canada announced 25% auto tariffs. The EU also announced 25% tariffs today. Other countries like Australia and Singapore also said they don’t plan to impose retaliatory tariffs, and some countries even lowered or suspended their tariffs, like Cambodia, Zimbabwe and Israel.
JIMMY: Now, I know this story has had near daily surprises, so I hate to even ask this next question, but I’m going to. And so what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?
Rebecca: Yeah, that’s a really great question, as we’ve seen so much back and forth, even just in the past week alone. Going forward, a lot of countries have indicated that they plan on speaking with the U.S., negotiating these tariffs and trying to lower them or get them suspended. Early reports also suggest the U.S. is still waiting for a response from a lot of countries, and are kind of using this as a negotiating tactic. Talks are currently scheduled with South Korea and Japan, and Italy’s prime minister is set to visit the White House next week. So really, going forward is really how we’re going to see if this, you know, set of tariffs is a policy, or does it just become a negotiating tactic? As you can see with, you know, China, as China has fought back, the US has responded by increasing those tariffs, while, again, as other countries have said that they plan on suspending or lowering their tariffs, Trump has paused other tariffs. So we’re going to keep watching. We’re going to keep an eye on the markets and see how — how the economy does. But yeah, I think we still don’t really know what’s going to happen next.
JIMMY: Well, I guess that’s a good place to pause then for today. But thank you so much for your time and for catching us up. Always appreciate it.
REBECCA: Of course, it was great.
U.S.-Iran talks
Information compiled by Jeff Landset
JIMMY: The United States and Iran will hold talks on Tehran’s nuclear program on Saturday.
The meeting is set to take place in Oman.
Earlier this week, President Trump announced talks were underway during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who gave a mild endorsement of the talks.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran made secret efforts to study the development of a nuclear explosive device until the early 2000s.
That led to the United Nations Security Council demanding Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment program, which the country said it was doing strictly for power plants.
The UN later imposed sanctions due to noncompliance.
And then in 2015, President Barack Obama’s administration struck a deal that limited Iran’s nuclear program and allowed intense inspections of its facilities in exchange for sanction relief.
The deal went into effect in January of 2016, but two years later, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal and reinstituted economic sanctions.
According to the IAEA, Tehran then began to stockpile near-weapons grade uranium.
Now, in an op-ed in the Washington Post, Iran’s foreign minister called the meeting “as much an opportunity as it is a test.”
He said any sort of military buildup is a non-starter and that his country would “never accept coercion.”
He also said the country wants to push back on concerns that its nuclear program is not for peaceful intentions.
If talks go well, there could be a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear problem.
If they go poorly, however, the U.S. could side with Netanyahu and even possibly begin attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.
That’s something Trump may have been talking about when he said Iran would “be in great danger” if the talks fall through.
Gabon election
Information compiled by Jess Fino
JIMMY: Voters in Gabon will head to the polls on Saturday.
It’s the first election since 2023’s coup that ousted President Ali Bongo, ending a 56-year-rule of the Bongo family.
Gabon’s interim President Brice Oligui Nguema has been leading the country since the coup, introducing a number of initiatives to tackle corruption.
In November, a referendum on a new constitution set a maximum of two seven-year presidential terms, with no prime minister.
Now, the new constitution, while delivering on promises made post-coup, means Nguema is able to run for president in this month’s elections.
That, however, has led to concerns the transitional leader wants to hold on to power for as long as possible.
A Commonwealth Observer Group has since arrived in the capital Libreville, welcoming the efforts of the Gabonese authorities in organizing the election. It’s also recognized that the new constitution marked a “significant milestone in Gabon’s democracy.”
Of course, the real challenge will come after the vote with a possible win by a military officer. One who would then have to ensure the country moves from military rule to a true democracy for the first time in decades.
Ecuadorian presidential runoff
Information compiled by James Morgan
JIMMY: Ecuador’s presidential runoff election is on Sunday.
Conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa and leftist challenger Luisa Gonzalez will face-off in the second round of voting with both candidates almost neck-and-neck in the polls.
In the first round of voting in February, neither candidate obtained enough votes for an outright victory, disappointing Noboa’s supporters who had been buoyed by early exit polls.
During her campaign, Gonzalez leveled criticism at Noboa for his perceived failure to deliver on key policy promises, including addressing the ongoing security crisis.
For his part, Noboa, who has only governed for a year and a half and argued he’s not had enough time to implement substantive change.
He’s also criticized his rival over plans to recognize the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro.
Now, undoubtedly the greatest challenge facing the winner of the runoff is the security crisis in Ecuador.
Noboa’s policies, which included emergency measures to deploy the military to the streets, have done little to curtail endemic violent crime in Ecuador.
There are also concerns surrounding threats of violence against the candidates after the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023.
South Korea’s Yoon’s criminal trial hearing
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon will stand in the first formal hearing of his criminal trial on Monday.
In January, Yoon became the first incumbent president in the country’s history to be arrested for criminal charges, after prosecutors indicted him over his short-lived marital law declaration.
According to Yoon’s lawyer, the declaration was not intended to paralyze the country, but only to tell the public of the “legislative dictatorship of the huge opposition party.”
Insurrection is one of the very few criminal charges from which a South Korean president does not have immunity.
If convicted, one is punishable by life imprisonment or death, though South Korea has not executed anyone in decades.
Now, while the criminal trial runs independently, in its ruling to formally remove Yoon from office last week, South Korea’s Constitutional Court did recognize the nature of the martial law declaration as unconstitutional.
That could harm Yoon’s defense that he was “exercising his presidential power.”
Analysts also say it’s now possible for the prosecutors to charge Yoon with abuse of power, as he’s now stripped of the presidential immunity.
Finally, though South Korea’s criminal trials usually conclude within six months of detention of the defendant, there are concerns that the insurrection trial will drag on with Yoon being out of detention since early March.
JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be taking the next two weeks off. So, our next episode will be out on May 1.
In the meantime, we are a 24-7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Twitter, or X as it’s called now, where we’ll still be posting breaking news.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Jess Fino, James Morgan and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Rebecca Bratek and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Drug stores in Canada have posted signs warning customers of items impacted by tariffs imposed by the United States. (Photo: Sikander Iqbal / Wikimedia Commons)
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