Forecast: Magnitude 7.7 earthquake strikes Myanmar, South Korea court rules on president’s impeachment, and TikTok faces sale deadline

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Week of April 4-11: A Look Ahead

April 4  Denmark PM’s visit to Greenland ends  

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will conclude a visit to Greenland on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to insist his country will annex Denmark’s territory.

What’s happened so far  The prime minister’s trip to Greenland, which is a semi-autonomous territory under the auspices of Denmark, comes as the U.S. administration continues to regurgitate its desire to annex Greenland, including by force if needed. Frederiksen’s visit comes days after the swearing in of Greenland’s new prime minister who has denied any interest in being annexed by the United States and who refers to Denmark as the territory’s closest ally.

The impact  The Trump administration’s repeated interest in annexing strategically significant Greenland underscores both the administration’s articulated expansionism as well as its open hostility toward Europe. Frederiksen, who is visiting Greenland just days after a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, has repeatedly emphasized that Greenland should determine its own future as pro-independence sentiment grows on the island despite polling indicating a strong desire not to leave Denmark and become part of the United States.

April 4  South Korea’s constitutional court to rule on president’s impeachment  

On Friday, a decision will be announced on whether South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will be permanently removed from office.

What’s happened so far  South Korean parliament voted to impeach Yoon on Dec. 14, accusing him of disturbing the constitution by declaring martial law with no justifiable grounds. Yoon has defended himself, saying that he never intended to fully impose military rule, but only meant to warn the public over “anti-state forces and pro-North Korea sympathizers.”  Yoon’s short-lived martial law decree also triggered the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who resumed his role as acting president after the Constitutional Court ruled to reinstate him on March 24. According to South Korea’s constitution, the court can decide to oust Yoon with approval from at least six or more justices, out of a total of eight judges.

The impact Authorities and police said they will be on high alert ahead of Friday’s announcement as they are expecting large crowds to gather against and in support of Yoon near the Constitutional Court. Major palaces in Seoul will also be closed as a precautionary measure over safety concerns. If Yoon is formally removed from office, a snap presidential election must be held within 60 days.

April 5  TikTok sale deadline  

U.S. President Donald Trump set Saturday as the deadline for the social media platform TikTok to find a non-Chinese buyer.

What’s happened so far  A law passed under then-President Joe Biden in 2024 required TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to sell the application’s U.S. operations or face a ban, which would impact its approximately 170 million users in the United States. U.S. lawmakers have argued that TikTok, owned by a China-based company, could pose a national security risk by handing over U.S. user data to the Chinese government or manipulate its algorithm. The initial deadline in January fell through, with TikTok subsequently going offline in the United States for more than 12 hours before Trump restored its access, promising to postpone the deadline by 75 days.

The impact  Trump told reporters Sunday that he is “hopeful” TikTok would find an American buyer before the deadline and that there was a “high interest” in buying the application. In fact, several potential buyers have been rumored to be possible candidates, including a group led by billionaire Frank McCourt, another group associated with social media influencer Jimmy Donaldson, and TikTok’s currency U.S. technology partner Oracle. Despite Trump suggesting a possible extension of the deadline could take place if the deal fails to be reached in time, users fear TikTok risks being shut down again in the United States on Saturday.

April 6  Paris rally in support of Marine Le Pen  

France’s National Rally is calling on supporters to gather at Place Vauban in central Paris on Sunday for a demonstration in support of far-right leader Marine Le Pen following her conviction on embezzlement charges. 

What’s happened so far   Le Pen was found guilty Monday by a French court of misusing funds allocated to pay aides while a member of the European Parliament and was immediately barred from seeking public office for five years. That ruling has shaken up the country’s political scene, with recent polling showing Le Pen leading the field for the presidency in 2027.

The impact  A Paris appeals court said Tuesday it expects to rule on a challenge to the conviction and election ban by next summer, giving Le Pen a lifeline to seek the presidency if she’s cleared of wrongdoing. In the meantime, 29-year-old National Rally leader Jordan Bardella may end up as the far-right standard bearer in her stead.

April 9  Greek trade unions announce 24-hour general strike  

A general strike called by Greek public-sector employees union ADEDY and joined by private-sector unions will take place Wednesday.

What’s happened so far  The strike action has been called over the handling of the fatal passenger train crash near Larissa on Feb. 28, 2023 (members’ link). Protesters also aim to express their discontent over the cost of living, tourism over-exploitation, and working conditions of the general public. The main demands by unions are accountability and transparency over the Tempi crash, an improvement of salaries and an end to tax exemptions for high earners and companies.

The impact  Among the main industries expected to be impacted by the strike are air travel, maritime transport, education, healthcare and government. Air traffic controllers, seafarers, healthcare staff, education and government workers will walk out to demand fair pay and job security. The latest nationwide strike held on Feb. 28 halted railway, airport and maritime transport in the country and saw violent clashes between police and demonstrators. Protest activity is expected as marches and rallies have been called on the day.

April 9  Congo and M23 rebels plan to hold first direct talks 

DR Congo government officials and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels agreed to meet on Wednesday for the first direct talks since the start of the conflict following multiple territory gains by the rebel group.

What’s happened so far  The militant conflict between DR Congo’s armed forces and the M23 group has continued to escalate the past weeks, with the rebels making significant gains, including the takeover of major cities such as Goma and Bukavu. Estimates suggest more than 7,000 people have been killed since the start of the conflict, with several thousands internally displaced. Both sides are yet to meet face to face, after a meeting in Luando, Angola, was canceled at the last minute due to European Union sanctions imposed on M23.

The impact  After months of escalation, the warring sides are due to meet in Doha thanks to efforts by Qatar. The willingness to meet marks a breakthrough in the conflict, mainly driven by the rebel group’s latest advances in the battlefield. It is unclear if the group will demand the integration of its fighters into the Congolese army in accordance with the 2009 agreement that collapsed and led to the launch of their fighting, or if its priorities have since shifted. Meanwhile, the government will likely aim to stop the group’s advance and put an end to the fighting, since the conflict has led to thousands of deaths and the displacement of many more, as well as acute food insecurity and rising epidemics.

April 10  Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to visit South Africa  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to embark on a state visit to South Africa on Thursday where he will meet with the country’s leader who holds hope of brokering a solution to the war.

What’s happened so far  Zelenskyy was invited by South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa, who has adopted a neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in an effort to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv. As a BRICS member with long-standing ties to Russia, South Africa is seen as a credible intermediary and has direct access to Moscow. Ahead of the visit, Ramaphosa spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Zelenskyy. South Africa is seeking to include Ukraine in negotiations, following its contentious exclusion from recent talks in Saudi Arabia.

The impact  Zelenskyy had been looking to shore up global support for the Ukrainian cause after February’s disastrous exchange with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance at a White House meeting. However, a sudden chill in U.S.-Russia relations with Trump saying he is “very angry” with Putin, coupled with renewed threats of sanctions against Moscow, could provide Zelenskyy with an opportunity to regain the initiative and set peace terms.

April 10  Taiwan to hold civil defense drill in Lienchiang

On Thursday, Taiwan will hold the first of its “Urban Resilience Exercises” in preparation for natural disaster and wartime scenarios.

What’s happened so far  In light of escalating tension in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te set up the “Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee,” aimed to bolster cooperation between central and local authorities in times of national emergency. Integrating the annual Wan air raid and disaster response civil drills, the new “Urban Resilience Exercises” will focus on strengthening the society’s capabilities in the face of natural disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and military threats from Beijing. Starting from Lienchiang County, civil defense authorities across 11 counties of Taiwan will be tested from April through July. In particular, the latest drills in Taipei, Taichung and Tainan will be conducted along with the Hang Kuang military exercise, the democratically-ruled island’s biggest annual war game.

The impact  With China stepping up its grey-zone tactics by increasing “patrol” of aircraft and naval vessels near Taiwan, as well as holding large-scale military exercises on a more frequent basis, analysts have warned of Beijing’s intention to exhaust the Taiwanese military and society without resorting to open combat. It is with consideration of such tactics and threat from Beijing that the Taiwanese authorities see the reform and review of the country’s civil and military mobilization as crucial to prepare its society for times of potential conflict.

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What Else Matters

Magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar 

Last Friday, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit northwest of Sagaing and Mandalay in Myanmar, with significant shaking felt as far as Bangkok and China’s Yunnan province. The quake collapsed thousands of buildings across central Myanmar, including dozens of mosques during Friday prayers. A large high-rise building that was under construction also collapsed in Bangkok, with the city reporting at least 22 people killed, mostly at the construction site. As of Thursday morning, Myanmar’s junta has reported at least 3,085 people dead and more than 4,700 injured, with the toll likely to rise much higher, but figures are still unclear amid mixed reporting from junta and independent media sources. 

Watch for: Earthquake relief response is hampered on multiple fronts in Myanmar with widespread infrastructural damage, difficulty accessing affected areas and limits on gathering information. International aid teams have managed to reach Mandalay and Sagaing despite damage to airports and roads, with China especially stepping up, while budget and staff cuts obstruct aid efforts from the United States. Quake-hit towns and villages are experiencing ongoing water, power and telecommunication outages, as well as shortages in food and medical supplies. Mandalay and Sagaing were also near the front lines of the civil war, with rebel forces pushing close to junta strongholds in recent months, and uneasiness over the conflict persists despite unilateral ceasefire announcements from both resistance groups and the junta, the latter of which came soon after the military confirmed warning shots were fired at a Chinese Red Cross convoy.

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Israeli strikes on Beirut 

Israel launched two strikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, last Friday and overnight on Tuesday this week for the first time since a ceasefire was signed in November with the militant group Hezbollah. The agreement was meant to put an end to the fighting that had been raging between Lebanon and Israel since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, as well as a full withdrawal of the Israeli army from its neighboring country and of Hezbollah from the border area. Not only has Israel maintained military presence along the border in southern Lebanon, but local media has reported on dozens of Israeli strikes in multiple towns in Lebanon in the past few months, killing dozens of people.

Watch for: Israel said the first strike on March 28 was in response to multiple rockets reportedly fired from Lebanon toward Israel, for which Hezbollah has denied responsibility. The Iran-backed group, which suffered significant losses during the months of fighting with Israel, has insisted on its adherence to the ceasefire and called the Israeli strikes on the Lebanese capital a breach of the agreement, but has also threatened to resort to “alternative means” if Israeli strikes on the country continue. With some analysts suggesting Israel is looking for any pretext to escalate the situation with Lebanon, many are therefore fearful we will witness a resumption of large-scale cross-border strikes as seen prior to the ceasefire.

Extended Outlook: What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…

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Top image: Hundreds people rallied in Seoul on March 22 ahead of the constitutional court’s decision on South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment. (Photo: ChongDae / Wikimedia Commons)

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