Dave Clark
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Week of April 25-May 2
A Look Ahead
April 26 – Pope Francis’ funeral
The world will turn its eyes to the Vatican on Saturday morning when Pope Francis is laid to rest and the process of picking a new pope begins.
What’s happened so far
Pope Francis died on Monday after a long hospital stay for double pneumonia. In the years before his death, he changed papal funeral traditions. He removed some of the pageantry, like the tradition of three interlocking caskets and an elevated platform during the public viewing. He also asked to be buried with simple adornment in Rome’s St. Mary Major Basilica, not in the Vatican like many of his predecessors. Several world leaders have already confirmed their attendance, including President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Javier Milei, the president of Pope Francis’ native Argentina.
The impact
Security will be tight in front of the basilica in St. Peter’s Square in Vatican City with hundreds of thousands of Catholics coming from around the world to pay their respects. In 2005, an estimated 4 million people showed up for the funeral of Pope John Paul II, which required thousands of officers and security staff. The conclave to decide the next pope usually begins about 15 days after the pope’s death. The speculation is now focused on if the new pope will continue Francis’ reforms or pivot back to traditional Catholic ways. The conclave may also pick the first Asian or African pope or return to tradition with an Italian pope for the first time since the 1970s.
April 26 – Ukraine and U.S. aim to complete technical discussions on minerals deal
Kyiv and Washington hope to complete drawn-out discussions on a minerals deal between the two nations by Saturday as Ukraine seeks to shore up further U.S. support.
What’s happened so far
Ukraine’s relationship with the United States remained productive since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of the country, but cooled with the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who publicly eschewed support for Ukraine and voiced sympathies for Russia’s position. Following a disastrous Oval Office meeting where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was berated by U.S. Vice President JD Vance as ungrateful for American support, a rift opened and plans to sign a minerals deal were quickly shelved. Recent foot-dragging by Russia on ceasefire negotiations has brought Ukraine back into the fold, with the potential mineral deal back on the table with a memorandum of understanding having already been signed.
The impact
Trump has coveted a minerals deal as a method of recouping the cost of U.S. support for Ukraine and an agreement would in effect be giving him what he wanted. A deal allowing the United States extensive rights to Ukraine’s natural resources, including rare earth mineral deposits, could secure further U.S. financial and material support as Ukraine attempts to push Russian forces back.
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April 27 – Hongkong Post to suspend air mail for goods to United States
Amid an ongoing trade war between the United States and China, Hongkong Post will suspend sending air mail services for packages to the U.S. starting Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Hong Kong’s local postal service already halted sea mail services to the US earlier this month, accusing Washington of “bullying” over new minimum tariff rates of 145 percent on all imports from China and Hong Kong. China has responded by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125 percent.
The impact
Mail containing only documents, not goods, will not be affected by the halt in shipments. Packages that would have fallen under previous “de minimis” provisions, however, which were valued under $800 and allowed to be sent directly to consumers tariff-free, will be subject to increased tariffs and fees starting May 2.
April 28 – Canadian federal election
Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre hope to lead their parties to a majority government on Monday, as voters across Canada cast their ballots.
What’s happened so far
More than 7 million people voted across four advanced polling days over the weekend, a 25 percent increase from 2021, in what will be the first election under a new electoral map that followed the last census. Carney has promised increased defense and infrastructure spending alongside tax cuts and a reduced reliance on the United States, as the Liberals seek a fourth term, while Poilievre has also called for tax cuts in tandem with new revenue from counter-tariffs and economic growth from ending existing Liberal programs.
The impact
Polling in the run-up to election day has shown the Liberals with a consistent lead, as the party saw its electoral fortunes change dramatically in the early weeks of the Trump administration. The country’s relationship with the United States has become one of the top, if not the top, issue for many voters, with the next government tasked with negotiating new trade and security agreements.
April 29 – National earthquake drill in Mexico
The government of Mexico will hold its first nationwide earthquake drill of the year on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
With its west coast part of the Pacific Ring of Fire – where about 90 percent of the world’s earthquakes occur – Mexico sees more than 90 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater on the Richter scale each year. The country holds two nationwide earthquake drills annually. The first takes place in the first half of the year, with the second held on Sept. 19 in commemoration of the 1985 earthquake that killed 20,000 people and damaged more than 2,800 properties. This year will mark the 40th year since that devastating earthquake.
The impact
At 11:30 a.m. local time, the seismic alert will be activated for a mock magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. People in Mexico City will get the alert on their cellphones, and public alerts will be activated in the states of Mexico, Guerrero, Morelos, Puebla, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Tlaxcala and Chiapas. The drill is aimed at preparing for emergency situations by giving businesses, institutions and people the opportunity to practice their evacuation protocols and identify safe zones. It will also give officials the chance to evaluate their emergency plans, measure response times and strengthen coordination.
May 1 – New Zealand healthcare workers strike
More than 5,000 senior doctors under the auspices of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) in New Zealand will strike for 24 hours on Thursday to protest stagnant pay negotiations. Hospital inpatients and emergency care will not be affected. Concurrently, approximately 370 nurses at three Auckland healthcare centers will also strike.
What’s happened so far
Last year, 2,500 junior doctors in New Zealand secured new collective agreements with the government after several days of strikes. Senior doctors argue this created an imbalance in pay scales, resulting in a functional pay cut for newly-qualified specialists. The government disputes claims of unfair pay, citing an average annual compensation of over $343,000 and several weeks of leave, though the union challenges the accuracy of this figure. These issues arise amid a growing staffing and funding crisis in healthcare, with budget cuts warning of service degradation and critical vacancies in rural hospitals.
The impact
Though emergency and inpatient services will remain unaffected, the strike is expected to delay or cancel thousands of planned procedures, radiology sessions and initial specialist appointments. The government has warned of prolonged disruptions lasting several weeks. If no satisfactory resolution is reached by this strike, it is likely to lead to further industrial action, with similar disruptive effects.
What Else Matters
Gunmen open fire on tourists in Jammu and Kashmir
At least 26 people were killed and a dozen others injured after militants opened fire on tourists in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday. The Resistance Front (TRF), a group linked to militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility, citing opposition to the settlement of non-locals in the region. This is the deadliest attack in the region since the 2019 attack in Pulawama, which killed 40 of India’s Central Reserve Police Force personnel. In response, Indian authorities placed major cities on high alert. The Jammu and Kashmir region saw shutter-down strikes and protests condemning the violence. India also downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, including an unprecedented suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, closure of the last remaining land border crossing and expulsion of Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan retaliated by suspending all trade, closing airspace to all Indian airlines and canceling visas for Indian nationals, adding that any attempt to block water flow into Pakistan would be considered an “act of war.”
Watch for: The attack has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, with India accusing Pakistan of backing militants in Kashmir, a claim Pakistan denies. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a 60-year-old agreement, is a significant move that could disrupt Pakistan’s vital water supply. In Jammu and Kashmir, the violence has sparked widespread protests, particularly as tourism — an important economic lifeline — suffers. Indian commentators have called for an “Israel-like solution” to combat militancy, which could lead to an even larger military presence in the region. Past militant attacks have resulted in breaches along the Line of Control, the military control line between Indian and Pakistani administered parts of Jammu and Kashmir, and cross-border airstrikes. With diplomatic relations at a new low point, India’s response to Pakistan’s actions could further destabilize the region and complicate any efforts toward reconciliation.
Russia-Ukraine Easter ceasefire
Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations over the weekend for violating a last-minute truce that ran from Saturday evening until midnight Sunday night in coincidence with Orthodox Easter. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked on Sunday morning there had been no Russian long-range drone or missile strikes recorded, he said a total of over 3,000 Russian violations had been documented during the truce. Likewise, Russia alleged Ukraine had used U.S.-made Himars missiles in violation of the truce. Prior to the ceasefire’s expiration on Sunday evening, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmirty Peskov said President Vladimir Putin had given no order to extend the ceasefire, prompting the resumption of hostilities.
Watch for: Russia rejected a 30-day unconditional ceasefire brokered by the United States and accepted by Kyiv at the end of March. The Kremlin instead reiterated its own demands, including the partial lifting of U.S. sanctions, no NATO membership for Ukraine and international recognition of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia. Negotiations have since stalled, with the Trump administration threatening to walk away from talks ahead of Easter weekend unless progress was made. Putin’s Easter truce was likely an attempt to convince Washington that Russia is still open to a deal on Ukraine in return for concessions. However, the Kremlin has shown no signs it is willing to make concessions in peace talks and appears to remain committed to its maximalist goals in Ukraine.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
April 25-May 2
April 26
- Pope Francis funeral
- Ukraine and U.S. aim to complete technical discussions on minerals deal
April 27
- Hongkong Post suspends sea mail to the U.S. and will halt airmail services for items containing goods
April 28
- Canadian election
April 29
- National earthquake drill in Mexico
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visits the Philippines
April 30
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Keelung
May 1
- May Day
- New Zealand healthcare workers strike
May 3-9
May 3
- Australia election
May 4
- First round of Romania presidential election
May 6
- Airport Security Middle East conference in Dubai
May 8
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Hsinchu
May 10-16
May 12
- Philippine general election
- Sean Combs’s sex trafficking trial begins
May 13
- Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 17-23
May 17
- Eurovision final in Basel
May 18
- Portugal snap legislative election
- Polish presidential election
May 21
- Europa League final in Bilbao
May 22
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taitung
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Top photo: The Vatican will hold Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday, days after the pontiff died following a long hospital stay for pneumonia. (Photo: Yakov Fedorov / Wikimedia Commons)
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