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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
More than 40 people were killed when powerful storm systems tore across the U.S. Midwest and South last weekend. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Theresa Seiger discuss the staggering destruction, the state and federal response and upcoming weather threats in the U.S.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of March 21-28
A Look Ahead
March 21 – Greek government worker strike
Greece’s union of municipal and regional government employees has called a 24-hour nationwide strike for Friday with a mass rally planned in Athens in front of government ministries.
What’s happened so far
Union workers have called for improved working conditions, including long-term contracts for employees working in social services providing care for children and disabled individuals.
The impact
The rally in central Athens is likely to cause disruption to public transportation and roadways during the day. Police are likely to bolster their presence in Athens given that recent protest activity escalated into clashes during a demonstration to mark the second anniversary of Greece’s deadliest train crash.
March 23 – Anniversary of broken Tutsi militant peace accords in DR Congo
For the first time, the DR Congo’s predominantly ethnic-Tutsi March 23 (M23) rebel movement will pass the group’s namesake anniversary Sunday in control of the northeast’s two largest cities.
What’s happened so far
While the M23 rebellion began in 2012, the army takes its name from the date of a 2009 peace deal between their predecessors, National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) and the central government of DR Congo. The deal initially planned for the integration of the ethnic-Tutsi CNDP into the Congolese army, until a group of CNDP soldiers led by current M23 general Sultani Makenga orchestrated a mutiny in April 2012 due to perceived violations of the accords. This winter, the M23 seized the region’s two largest cities, Goma and Bukavu, with major support from neighboring Rwanda. With the government on the back foot, rare direct peace talks between M23 leaders and Kinshasa officials were scheduled for March 18. At the last minute, M23 withdrew from the talks following a new wave of EU sanctions against its leadership and Rwandan government officials.
The impact
M23 rebels are currently conducting an offensive against FARDC-controlled towns west of the country’s North Kivu region, with the apparent goal of seizing the strategic mining hub of Walikale. While the group’s plans for the anniversary have not been publicly stated, previous years have seen the rebel government organize festivities in towns under its control. M23 forces hosted two major rallies in Goma and Bukavu shortly after seizure in late January and early February, with the rally in Bukavu becoming the target of a deadly bombing. The date comes at a point in the conflict where M23’s Rwandan benefactors face western sanctions and severed diplomatic ties. Despite the disintegration of the Luanda peace talks, Rwanda President Paul Kagame and DR Congo President Felix Tshisekedi met for a rare tete-a-tete in Qatar on March 18 to discuss a possible ceasefire.
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March 24 – Criminal hearing against South Korea’s impeached president
On Monday, a second hearing will take place in the criminal case against impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived martial law declaration.
What’s happened so far
Yoon became the country’s first sitting president to be indicted for a criminal case after authorities arrested him over alleged insurrection on Jan. 15, ending a week-long standoff with his security details. Insurrection is one of the few charges for which a South Korean president does not have immunity, and Yoon could face life imprisonment or even the death penalty, though the country has not executed anyone in decades. During the first hearing of the criminal trial, the court ruled to cancel Yoon’s arrest and released him from detention following a request from his legal team, citing the legality of Yoon’s indictment and arrest procedures. A constitutional court trial has been ongoing separately, where a decision on whether to uphold the parliamentary vote to impeach Yoon is expected by mid-March.
The impact
Concerns have been raised about the speed of Yoon’s criminal trial as many pointed out that when a defendant is tried while in custody, the trial will usually conclude within the maximum detention period of six months. However, with Yoon now free from detention, many worry that the process of his criminal case could drag on. There’s also growing uncertainty in what the criminal trial would actually be able to bring, with some analysts suggesting that the prosecutor’s case has now been badly damaged, with the court having accepted that Yoon’s detention was flawed, while others argue that procedure issues are unlikely to have significant impact on the insurrection charges itself.
March 24 – Canadian Parliament resumes
Canada’s Parliament will resume its session Monday with newly-selected Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney expected to call an election in the days before the meeting.
What’s happened so far
Parliament was prorogued, or temporarily suspended, in January, allowing the Liberal Party to choose its leader after Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign. After the Liberal Party decisively selected Mark Carney, a political newcomer but former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, parliamentary business can now resume. Prime Minister Carney, sworn-in by Canada’s governor general, faces many tests, including managing his relationship with a newly-hostile U.S. President Donald Trump, tariffs on goods and Canada’s response as well as an election campaign that will pit him against a well-prepared opposition.
The impact
Carney is widely expected to call an election in the coming days, meaning Canadians could go to the polls in April or May. The Liberals, which have a minority government following Justin Trudeau’s 2021 election win, are hoping to buck a global trend of incumbent parties being tossed from government and seek a fourth term amid a wave of anger and uncertainty stemming from Trump’s treatment of Canada. Polls show a distinct narrowing of the Conservative Party lead, giving Carney a fighting chance to win, with at least one showing the Liberals ahead.
March 24 – Brazilian president visits Japan
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will travel to Japan for a four-day visit Monday to mark the 130th anniversary of Brazil-Japan diplomatic relations.
What’s happened so far
Lula is set to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba along with Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako during the visit. Japan said Lula will be awarded the Grand Cordon of the Supreme Order of the Chrysanthemum, one of its highest decorations, to commemorate the occasion.
The impact
Lula, who has criticized tariffs being imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, aims to strengthen trade and investment with Japan during his trip, building on their strong economic ties. He will also seek to work with Japan in reforming the UN Security Council, which he says needs to be upgraded to better reflect current geopolitical realities. In addition, with Brazil set to host the COP30 summit later this year, Lula plans to discuss climate change cooperation, emphasizing Japan’s role in advancing science and technology to address climate change.
March 25 – Brazil Supreme Court considers Bolsonaro trial
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro could see himself a defendant on Tuesday after being charged for attempting a coup.
What’s happened so far
Bolsonaro was elected Brazil’s 38th president in 2018 after a far-right campaign that mirrored Donald Trump’s in the United States two years earlier. He survived an assassination attempt during his campaign, which left him hospitalized for a month. His presidency was marked by his downplaying of the seriousness of coronavirus, a shady vaccine deal investigation, and a “catastrophic” response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid in 2022 to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but refused to accept the result, leaving the country before the inauguration on Jan. 1, 2023. A week later, a mob of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed government buildings in the capital as a way to spur a military coup. A Supreme Court investigation revealed plans by Bolsonaro’s officials to keep him in power, including assassination plots against Lula, his vice president and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Last month, a federal prosecutor charged 37 people, including Bolsonaro, with attempting a coup.
The impact
If the Supreme Court finds enough evidence for Bolsonaro to go to trial, he could face up to 40 years in prison. Bolsonaro and his family have denounced the charges, drawing comparisons to Trump. The trial is likely to spark large crowds outside of the proceedings and influence the public’s thinking in the months leading up to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Although Bolsonaro has been banned from running, there is speculation that his wife Michelle could run as a candidate.
March 26 – EU trade chief plans China visit amid tensions with Trump
European Union’s trade chief Maros Sefcovic is expected to visit China on Wednesday for the first time.
What’s happened so far
According to the South China Morning Post, citing people familiar with the plan, Sefcovic is likely to meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao following an invitation by the Chinese official earlier this year. The officials aim to improve relations amid rising tensions between Brussels and Beijing since Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, with the EU accusing China of supporting Putin.
The impact
The visit also comes at a time of rising tensions between EU and the United States’ new administration, with analysts suggesting European officials are trying to turn to other international powers to reduce its reliance on the United States. But last October, the EU imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, leading to protests from Beijing. Reports say Chinese President Xi Jinping turned down an invitation to visit Brussels for the occasion of the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties, suggesting the relationship between the two has a long way to go.
What Else Matters
Deadly tornadoes across U.S. South and Midwest
Severe weather pummeled parts of the United States over the weekend, leaving behind a swath of devastation and claiming at least 42 lives in eight states. The cross-country storm system began as an atmospheric river that soaked parts of California before sending strong winds east, where they fueled deadly wildfires in Oklahoma and dust storms in Kansas and Texas. Federal officials received more than 100 tornado reports from 13 states in the South and the Midwest from Friday to Sunday, and preliminary damage surveys have found evidence that dozens of tornadoes touched down, including two powerful EF-4 storms in Arkansas and one in Mississippi. Gov. Mike Kehoe of hard-hit Missouri – where 13 people died – called the scale of the devastation “staggering.” He said he is preparing to ask for a major federal disaster declaration to help those impacted across 25 counties.
Watch for: Clean up from this weekend’s storms is underway and likely to take weeks, prompting warnings from officials about potential looting and contractor scams. The damaging storms hit after President Donald Trump said in January that he would seek to overhaul or eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which can provide relief to people who saw damage not covered by insurance. On Tuesday, Trump signed an executive order to shift responsibility for disaster response efforts to states and local governments. Meanwhile, planned cuts to staffing at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have prompted concerns over the country’s ability to respond to future, potentially life-threatening weather events. Changes to the agency are likely to gain further scrutiny in the coming months as we get further into the typical tornado season.
Collapse of Gaza ceasefire
The Israeli military announced on Wednesday that it had initiated a new ground invasion inside the Gaza Strip, gaining control of the so-called Netzarim corridor that effectively splits the Palestinian territory into two. This announcement came a day after the army said it would resume “military operations” in Gaza after talks on entering the second phase of the prior ceasefire fell through. In the first 24 hours of intense Israeli airstrikes across much of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian health ministry said more than 400 people, many of whom were women and children, were killed.
Watch for: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blamed the Palestinian militant group Hamas for stalling talks on the ceasefire by not accepting a proposal to extend Phase 1 of the ceasefire, which ended on March 1, by an additional 50 days. Critics, however, were skeptical that Israel had the intention to enter Phase 2, which would have seen a full withdrawal of the Israeli military from the Gaza Strip and a path toward permanently ending the war. With the support of Netanyahu’s far-right members back in government, analysts now fear a return to a long-term military campaign as was witnessed prior to the ceasefire, in which nearly 50,000 people were killed and catastrophic levels of hunger inside the Palestinian territory.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
March 21-28
March 21
- Feds order NYC to end congestion pricing
- Greece municipal workers strike
March 22
- Gabon presidential election
- Foreign ministers of South Korea, Japan and China to meet in Tokyo
March 23
- Opposition party to hold primary to pick Turkish presidential candidate
- Argentinian President Javier Milei visits Israel
- Anniversary of broken Tutsi militant peace accords in DR Congo
March 24
- Criminal case hearing against South Korea’s President Yoon on insurrection charges
- Brazilian president visits Japan
- Argentina’s Javier Milei visits Israel
- Canadian Parliament resumes
March 25
- Brazil Supreme Court considers Bolsonaro trial
March 26
- EU trade chief visits China
March 27
- Taiwanese military to conduct large-scale disaster drills in Tainan
March 28
- Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
March 29-April 4
March 31
- Pakistan asks illegal foreigners, Afghan Citizen Card holders to leave
- South Africa’s deadline for Taiwan to move embassy
- Belgian unions call national strike against austerity measures
- South Korea to lift its ban on short selling across all stock
- Medicare telehealth “flexibilities” established during the Covid-19 pandemic are set to expire
- New Zealand central bank governor officially leaves role
- Reserve Bank of India to inject cash into banking system ahead of end of financial year
April 1
- Namibia will issue visas on arrival for international investors and tourists
- Canadian federal minimum wage set to increase
- Special elections in Florida to fill two congressional seats
April 2
- Mexico to decide on retaliatory U.S. tariffs
April 5-11
April 5
- Possible ELN peace talks in Colombia
April 9
- Multiple Greek trade unions announce 24-hour general strike
April 10
- Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to visit South Africa for talks
April 12-18
April 13
- Ecuador presidential runoff
April 14
- Ontario Legislature to begin 44th session of Parliament
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Top photo: Protesters gathered in Athens, Greece, on March 7 to mark the second anniversary of the deadly Tempe train crash. (Photo: George E. Koronaios / Wikimedia Commons)
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