Factal
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss deadly gang attacks in Haiti’s Kenscoff area, plus more on elections in Germany and Ontario, Canada, a return-to-office order for US government workers and a toxic debris cleanup deadline for the Los Angeles fires.
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This episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Jess Fino, Jaime Calle Moreno, Vivian Wang and Owen Bonertz. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
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Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:46 Kenscoff, Haiti, violence – an interview with Factal editor Jeff Landset
- 4:35 German federal elections
- 5:55 U.S. government workers ordered to return to office
- 6:42 Deadline for LA fires cleanup
- 7:47 Ontario elections
- 9:11 Credits
Transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Feb. 20, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got gang attacks in Haiti’s Kenscoff area, elections in Germany and Ontario, Canada, a return-to-office order for US government workers and a toxic debris cleanup deadline for the Los Angeles fires.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Kenscoff, Haiti, violence
Information compiled by Jeff Landset
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at some recent violence in Haiti. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset.
JIMMY: Hello, Jeff,
JEFF: Hi Jimmy. How are you?
JIMMY: I’m well. I’m glad you’re here. Haiti has been, as you know, struggling with violence for a while, but these past few weeks we’re seeing it in an area where it’s a lot less common, or at least it seems that way to me. Can you give us a bit of a recap on what’s been going on?
JEFF: Yeah, sure. As you mentioned, the conflict has been going on for years. It’s been mostly confined to Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, and at this moment gangs control about 85% of the capital. But there are some communities near the city that have been largely peaceful this whole time, and one of them is Kenscoff – a resource-rich area that has been described as home to some of the country’s elite. And then, starting in late January, the powerful Viv Ansanm gang alliance began raiding the community, and since then, they’ve killed dozens of people and have left thousands of them homeless.
JIMMY: Well, what’s the latest? There been any new developments?
JEFF: Yeah, so this latest attack has really shaken the population, especially after the prime minister announced that the government knew that this attack was going to happen. There have been mixed results on whether or not this latest counter-attack by the military and the police and the Multinational Security Support mission has been helpful. This week, the military removed gang members from a makeshift base in the area, but they also apparently had two armored vehicles commandeered.
JIMMY: Wow. Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to the violence?
JEFF: Yeah, so there are ongoing meetings at the UN about this. And so in the last couple of months, the support has actually grown in Haiti. The Multinational Security Support mission has actually doubled in size. They’ve gained new contingents from countries like Guatemala, El Salvador, and obviously there are troops from Kenya there as well. They also received some new gear from the [U.S.] State Department, and the Trump administration has said it still supports Haiti security efforts, despite that cut in funding to places outside of the US.
JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?
JEFF: Yeah, it is actually pretty easy to say that the fate of Haiti may rest on what happens next in Kenscoff. This obviously has been a very peaceful area leading up to this, and it is actually one of the most strategic locations in Haiti. So if the gang members do take control of Kenscoff they would have control of the city’s food supply, and they would also have a direct route to some of the more peaceful areas of Haiti, in that southern area of the country. It also would show the population that, you know, maybe the onslaught of these gangs is inevitable, and the military and police can’t really do anything about it. You know, on the other hand, if the military and the police do come through and say – and push back these rebels, then they can say that they have an upper hand on this situation.
JIMMY: Well, Jeff, it sounds like a concerning situation and I bet you’ll be keeping an eye on it for us, and I’m sure we’ll have you back if need be, but until then, we’ll pause there for today. And thank you, as always, for your time and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.
JEFF: No problem. Thank you.
German federal elections
Information compiled by Jess Fino
JIMMY: Germany will hold federal elections on Sunday. It will be the country’s fourth snap election of the post-war period.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) appear likely to lose by a significant margin to the Christian Democrats (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz.
That would mark a likely return to CDU rule following a four-year hiatus after Angela Merkel’s retirement.
Among the issues at the forefront of the election are Germany’s continued economic stagnation since 2020 as well as increasing anti-immigrant sentiment due to a spate of recent attacks attributed to asylum seekers.
This will also mark the first federal election since Germany moved to downsize its bloated seat count in the parliament.
Now, polling in second place is the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD party, which appears poised to double its seat total in the Bundestag from the 2021 election.
Of course, the AfD remains a pariah among the major German parties and the CDU is unlikely to tap it for a coalition partner. Instead, the CDU would likely turn toward the Greens or the SPD.
Still, a possible outcome exists where the AfD and the upstart far-left populist Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are able to influence policy and play spoiler on areas of overlap if things break their way.
U.S. government workers ordered to return to office
Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno
JIMMY: President Trump’s return-to-office order for all federal workers comes into force on Monday.
Trump signed the executive order on his first day in office last month stating all executive branch departments and agencies must terminate remote working.
That’s a trend, of course, that began during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.
Now, the order to return to the office is part of the tug-of-war between the current administration and collective bargaining agreements.
While the former believes these agreements with labor unions are not binding from one administration to the next, labor unions and federal employees are fighting the directive.
Last week, around 75,000 federal employees accepted the deferred buyout program offered by President Trump in lieu of the return-to-office order.
Deadline for LA fires cleanup
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: Cleanup workers in Los Angeles are rushing to expedite hazardous debris removal in the aftermath of the Eaton and Palisades fires.
It’s part an effort to meet a Trump-imposed deadline on Tuesday, just over a month after the fires broke out.
The fires, fanned by last month’s destructive Santa Ana winds, killed 29 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.
Adding to the destruction, an atmospheric river followed just five weeks later, bringing enough rain to dissolve burned hills and cliffs into mudslides that triggered evacuations and closed roads.
Now, contractors from the Environmental Protection Agency must complete hazardous material removal for each property before the Army Corps can clear the rest of the debris.
Of course, residents in Malibu are protesting the potential use of a site near their city hall for processing hazardous fire debris.
Federal agencies also say that they will not be ordering soil testing to rule out contamination on affected properties, saying that scraping off six inches of topsoil is enough to protect public health.
Ontario elections
Information compiled by Owen Bonertz
JIMMY: Voters in Canada’s largest province of Ontario will elect a new provincial parliament and premier Thursday.
Polling has shown a strong lead for incumbent leader Doug Ford.
That, despite the Toronto native having the lowest approval rating of any sitting Canadian premier.
Ford has governed Ontario with a majority government since 2018 and has overseen a middling economy relative to the other provinces and a soaring real estate market.
Ontario has also accepted a particularly high number of immigrants, with the population growing over 10 percent during Ford’s tenure.
With polling showing a strong lead for the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), Ford called a snap election at the end of January, a year before he was required.
Now, Ford is currently polling around 40 percent, with the center left Liberal party led by Bonnie Crumbie and Marit Stiles’ social democratic NDP both battling for second around 20 percent.
The three-party system in Ontario has benefited Ford by splitting the province’s left-of-center electorate.
If elected to another term, Ford has promised extensive projects and expansions to the road system in Toronto, including an extremely ambitious tunneling project for Highway 401, the busiest road in Canada.
Finally, despite the ongoing threat of tariffs from the United States, Ford has also committed to massive investments in the province’s already-substantial automotive sector.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, Jaime Calle Moreno, Vivian Wang and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
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Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Factal incident map of gang violence in Kenscoff, Haiti.
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