Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Agnese Boffano discuss the precarious Gaza ceasefire, plus more on the end of the 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon, a presidential election in Belarus, Lunar New Year and the Bank of Canada cutting rates.
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These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Agnese Boffano, Alex Moore, James Morgan, Vivian Wang and Jess Fino. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:43 Gaza ceasefire – an interview with Factal editor Agnese Boffano
- 10:16 End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
- 11:41 Belarusian presidential election
- 13:20 Lunar New Year
- 14:11 Bank of Canada to cut rates
- 15:27 Credits
Transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Jan. 23, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got updates on the ceasefires in Gaza and in Lebanon, a presidential election in Belarus, Lunar New Year and the Bank of Canada cutting rates.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Gaza ceasefire
Information compiled by Agnese Boffano
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll check in on the Gaza ceasefire. For more on that I’ve got Factal editor Agnese Boffano.
JIMMY: Good morning, Agnese.
AGNESE: Hi, Jimmy.
JIMMY: So happy to talk to you this morning. There’s been a ton of news happening in the last few days, so I’m hoping you can give us an update on the situation in Gaza. So, you know, what’s been going on?
AGNESE: Yeah. Well, Jimmy, after 15 months of war, it seems as though we really do have a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip now. And so, as you said, lots of news in the last week, so I’ll try to talk it through. This was originally announced by the mediating parties, Qatar and the United States, earlier last week, and then was voted on by the Israeli government, despite some last minute challenges that I’ll mention shortly. And eventually, it came into effect last Sunday, on the 19th of January, at 11:15 a.m. local time. Now, this ceasefire is divided into three phases, and the ultimate goal, in theory, is, you know, to bring an end to the war on a permanent basis. Right now we’re in stage one of the agreement, which is set to last for 42 days. And this will see, you know, aside from, obviously, an end of airstrikes, it will also see a gradual release of the more than 30 Israeli captives that have been held in the Gaza Strip since the October 7 attacks. And likewise, in exchange, we’re going to see the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners who have been held in Israeli jails – a lot of them, you know, without a trial, and a lot of them underage as well. And in this phase, it’s also important to say that, according to the agreement, it says that a minimum of 600 aid trucks need to enter the Gaza Strip on a daily basis. And this is something that is much needed to tackle the catastrophic levels of famine that much of the displaced population has been affected by. So that’s the first phase. The second phase will then follow after 42 days, and this is aimed at securing the release of the remaining Israeli captives in exchange, again, for more than 1000 Palestinians who have been detained by Israeli forces in Gaza this time. And in theory, Israel is also expected to withdraw completely from Gaza and from the Philadelphi Corridor, which is, if you remember, what the border that Gaza shares with Egypt, during this stage, before then potentially moving to phase three, which is more about the release of the bodies on both sides and more about a reconstruction plan that is supposed to be carried out in Gaza.
JIMMY: And what’s the latest? There been any new developments?
AGNESE: Yeah, certainly. So we’ve had the first successful prisoner exchange. Three female Israeli captives were released by Hamas, then transferred to the Red Cross and then returned to Israel, where they were received by their families and medical teams as well, who said that their health was good. And shortly after that, on Sunday, Israeli authorities released 100 prisoners from custody who returned to East Jerusalem and the West Bank, where they’re from, and among them were 69 women and 21 children. And among the most prominent individuals as well, and worth mentioning, is a woman called Khalida Jarrar, who is – she is a leader of the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, who has been essentially serving multiple prison terms in Israel since about 2015. So that was a big name as well. And then on the ground in Gaza, you know, despite a ceasefire, we have seen some incidents this week that have been documented by – a lot of them by Palestinian media, that suggest occasions when Israeli soldiers have fired and injured multiple residents attempting to return to areas in Rafah and in the south. And this is something that Israel has said was because their troops felt to have been in danger. So those are some of the incidents that we’ve seen. But you know, so far, the ceasefire has, by and large, held. And then also after the announcement, and since the announcement, we’ve seen a wave of Palestinians returning to their homes, especially in Rafah in the south, and unfortunately, most of them are just finding rubble. There was a report that the UN came out with very recently that said that about 90% of residential buildings have either been damaged or completely destroyed in Gaza, and so Palestinians are having to go through, as they said, 42 million tons of rubble to just find something of what was before. And another thing that’s happening on the ground, and that we’re looking at on a daily basis, is the exhumation of bodies. So the civil defense that is operating in Gaza has said that they found hundreds of decomposed bodies under the rubble on the streets, in makeshift tombs made in a hurry, and unfortunately, these only account for a fraction of the missing people in Gaza after 15 months of war.
JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen? You know, domestically, internationally, all that?
AGNESE: Generally, I think it’s been welcomed by all parties, so internationally as well, not only by the US, as announced by the – I have to remember to say now former President Biden – and President Trump, as well, who was very quick to post about it on Trump’s own Truth Social, but also parties like Iran and Lebanon and the new Syrian government as well have all welcomed this, saying that their hopes lie in that this becomes, eventually, a permanent ceasefire. On the ground, Palestinians were, of course, very happy when this came into effect finally, on Sunday, and a lot of them could be seen celebrating from their tents in Mawasi and Rafah and across much of the Palestinian Territories, even in the West Bank, you know. And in Israel, that’s where we have to talk about next, the ceasefire has definitely come with mixed emotions. So on one side, for example, if you were watching the live stream of of the square that’s in front of the Tel Aviv Museum of Art that’s come to be known as Hostages Square, you would have been able to see the friends and families of the captives who were crying out of happiness and relief when the ceasefire finally came into effect on Sunday morning. So they certainly welcomed it, especially after they had been protesting for months, you know, urging the Netanyahu government to just accept a ceasefire deal. But also in Israel, if you were following just the political events, you would have seen a completely different reaction to the ceasefire. So I mentioned earlier that it was originally announced earlier in the week, but it took the Israeli government multiple days to actually vote on it, because – this is what most analysts are saying – is that, you know, there’s mixed opinions within the governing coalition. So you have members of the right wing government, which you know Prime Minister Netanyahu relies on to maintain a majority in the Knesset, who have openly discussed their opposition to the deal. You have prominent members like National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and the Finance Minister Smotrich, who have actually threatened to withdraw from the coalition if Israel went ahead with the ceasefire. And they were especially concerned about the fact that it was supposed to be permanent, so the permanent nature of the deal. Where, in fact, they just wanted Netanyahu to promise them that they would return to, as they said, a full-scale war after the expiry of the first phase.
JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for in the next, you know, weeks and months ahead?
AGNESE: Yeah, so if I can just tag on to what I was saying earlier, what we’ll have to see is exactly how internal Israeli politics are going to impact the future of the ceasefire agreement. So, so far, the Netanyahu coalition remains in place, but if the right wing ministers who have opposed the deal follow through with their threats of quitting, and if indeed Israel agrees to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and enter a second phase, what we might be looking at is a potential collapse of the Israeli government. And this is, of course, something that Netanyahu himself really doesn’t want, not only because he has a desire to remain head of state, but also because he has a corruption trial going on, which we shouldn’t forget about. So what people are actually fearing, and what might be the alternative possibility that we might be looking at in the next few weeks, is that we won’t have a second phase, that the ceasefire will fall through after the first phase, and that we will return to just having hourly strikes in Gaza and no more prisoner exchange. And then, of course, what we can watch for, at least, you know, aside from all of this uncertainty, is at least for this phase of the ceasefire to hold. So, these prisoner exchanges are very delicate, and even though we might not have the sound of airstrikes, or we might not have the Israeli drones, or air raid sirens in Israel right now, this might all change very quickly if large-scale incidents are reported and if infractions continue.
JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we’ll go ahead and pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for keeping an eye on things for us and, well, and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.
AGNESE: Thank you.
End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
Information compiled by Alex Moore
JIMMY: The two-month ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah will expire on Sunday.
This latest round of hostilities kicked off in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023.
The cross-border situation gradually got worse throughout last year, with Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah intensifying and thousands of Israeli citizens evacuating from homes in the north.
By October, it escalated to near-daily airstrikes on southern Beirut and a ground invasion into southern Lebanon, which only stopped with the ceasefire in November.
Under terms of the ceasefire agreement, Israel would withdraw its forces back across the border while Hezbollah would pull its soldiers and weaponry north of the Litani River. That’s been a key strategic landmark in wars past between Israel and Hezbollah.
Meanwhile the Lebanese government would ostensibly fill the security gap in the south.
Now, Hezbollah has reportedly been significantly degraded, both by Israeli military operations as well as the fall of Syria’s Assad regime. The latter served as a crucial route for weapons sent by Iran.
Still, Israel has maintained significant levels of military activity in southern Lebanon. What’s more, the ceasefire leaves open the possibility that Israel chooses to reopen its northern front following the ceasefire in Gaza.
Belarusian presidential election
Information compiled by James Morgan
JIMMY: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is running for his seventh term in office on Sunday. The polls come four years after elections that resulted in mass protests and an unprecedented wave of repression targeting the opposition.
Of course, Lukashenko has eliminated almost all his political rivals in Belarus, with most prominent opposition figures having either fled the country or been imprisoned.
Leader of the opposition in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has called on European leaders not to acknowledge the vote and branded it a farcical ritual conducted by Lukashenko without external oversight.
Russia, for its part, continued to deepen ties with Belarus following the 2020 election, further isolating Belarus and turning it into a de facto extension of the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin has continually used Belarus as a platform for military resources since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia even deployed part of its arsenal and tactical nuclear weapons there in 2023 and extended its revised nuclear doctrine to encompass Belarusian territory.
Now, Lukashenko’s victory is a foregone conclusion in Sunday’s election. And in spite of international sanctions imposed on the Belarusian government, and mass allegations of rigging, Lukashenko is likely seeking to consolidate power and regain legitimacy lost following the 2020 elections.
In the run-up to the vote, he’s issued multiple pardons to people widely regarded as political prisoners. It’s a move the opposition says is an attempt to win concessions from the West.
Lunar New Year
Information compiled by Vivian Wang
JIMMY: More than 1 billion people across Asia and their diasporas around the world are gearing up to celebrate the Lunar New Year on Wednesday.
People across China, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan travel annually during the Lunar New Year holiday to reunite with families or sightsee during their time off.
And though the coronavirus pandemic put a damper on Lunar New Year travel and economic activity for several years, China saw both rebound in 2024 and is expecting more of the same this year.
Now, the holiday travel period is already underway and usually lasts some 40 days, with observing countries forecasting record travel numbers.
Airports in Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and China are prepared for a surge in both inbound and outbound travel.
Bank of Canada to cut rates
Information compiled by Jess Fino
JIMMY: Canada’s central bank is expected to cut its interest rate on Wednesday. That, as the country faces uncertainty on future tariffs imposed by the new U.S. administration.
According to a poll by Reuters, the majority of economists expect a quarter-point rate cut to 3 percent, followed by another cut in March.
As you may recall, the bank cut its interest rate by a half-percentage point last December, down to 3.25 percent. But, the risk of U.S.-imposed tariffs is forcing the country to take precautionary steps.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is due to leave his post in March, has formed a Canada-U.S. relations council to support the federal government with possible incoming changes that will come with the new administration.
Now, U.S. President Donald Trump has previously threatened to impose tariffs as high as 25 percent on Canadian imports, which would further deepen its productivity crisis.
And while Trump didn’t implement this on his first day in office, reports have suggested he will introduce the tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Feb. 1.
Experts have also warned that Trump’s planned tax cuts also risk ending Canada’s corporate tax advantage.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, James Morgan, Vivian Wang and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: King Abdullah II visits the Jordan Hashemite Charity Organisation warehouses and checks on preparations for the largest aid convoy to Gaza to date, which will be the 140th convoy to the Strip since the start of the war, and consists of 120 aid trucks. (Royal Hashemite Court)
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