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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of Jan. 3-10
A Look Ahead
Jan. 5 – Congestion fees begin for Manhattan drivers
New York City area drivers will have to pay a base toll of $9 to enter Lower Manhattan south of 60th Street beginning Sunday in an effort to calm traffic and bolster public transit on the island.
What’s happened so far
The policy, known as congestion pricing, has been implemented in other dense cities like Singapore and London, and revenue will be split between Greater New York’s MTA and Port Authority government agencies. Proposals for congestion pricing in Manhattan began as early as 2008, but the current version gained approval from the state government of New York in 2019. The policy has faced stark opposition from right-leaning commuters, particularly in New Jersey. After multiple legal challenges, the policy was given the green light to go forward by a U.S. District Court judge who shot down a state of New Jersey lawsuit on Monday.
The impact
While New Jersey lawyers are still claiming that the court’s decision does not explicitly approve the Jan. 5 start date, New York’s MTA seems poised to go ahead with it. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul had postponed the original June 30, 2024 start date, but state officials are attempting to begin the fees before the presidential inauguration, as Donald Trump has said he will scrap the policy. More debates over the confusing pricing structure, potential exceptions, and the borders of the tolled area are likely to dominate city politics in coming years.
Jan. 6 – Certification of U.S. election
The United States Congress is set to meet Monday to count and certify electoral votes ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
What’s happened so far
Trump won the 2024 presidential election in November, claiming 312 electoral votes over Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226. The president-elect previously served one term in the White House, from 2017 to 2021, and has already named a number of people whom he plans to nominate to roles in his administration. Following a request by the mayor of Washington, D.C., the Homeland Security secretary designated Monday’s certification as a “national special security event” to mitigate any potential security issues.
The impact
The certification is the last step in the process ahead of Inauguration Day, when Trump is expected to take the oath of office alongside his vice president, former U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. No surprises are expected, as Harris conceded the election in November. Analysts are already speculating about the impacts Trump’s term in office might have on U.S. foreign relations, domestic policy and the economy.
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Jan. 8 – U.S., Australia, Japan, India to conduct 1st drill in Tokyo Bay
The coast guards of Japan, United States, Australia and India, sometimes referred to as the “Quad,” will reportedly hold their first joint exercise in Tokyo Bay on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
Cooperation between this specific grouping of countries began as an emergency response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and has since strengthened into a strategic partnership amid shared interests in the region. A joint statement from the most recent Quad summit expressed concern over conflict in the South China Sea, and weapons tests and confrontational behavior from North Korea.
The impact
This maritime drill will likely be the first of several joint missions between the Quad countries this year, who are seeking to strengthen regional maritime security. The cooperation is likely to draw attention from China, though Quad statements and actions are careful to avoid mentioning China directly.
Jan. 9 – Carter state funeral
More than a week of tributes and ceremonies for the 39th president will conclude on Thursday with Jimmy Carter’s state funeral.
What’s happened so far
Carter, who died at the age of 100 on Dec. 29, had been in hospice care for more than a year. According to plans released this week, a motorcade will take the former president through his hometown of Plains, Ga., past his boyhood home and family farm, then to the Georgia State Capitol and the Carter Center in Atlanta, where he will lie in repose for three days. His remains will then be flown to Washington, D.C., where he will lie in state in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda, like many presidents before him. Thousands of mourners are expected to pay their respects. After his funeral service, which will include a eulogy from President Joe Biden, he will be flown back to Plains, where he will be interred next to his wife Rosalynn by their longtime home in the national historical park named for him.
The impact
Carter’s death came just days before President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. It’s unclear if Trump will attend or speak at the former president’s funeral, after denigrating him several times when he was alive. Trump then praised Carter following his death, saying “we all owe him a debt of gratitude.” Security will likely be high in the nation’s capitol through the rest of the month with the funeral coming on top of the inauguration and Jan. 6, which has been designated a “national special security event.”
Jan. 9 – Biden visits Italy
U.S. President Joe Biden will make the final international trip of his term starting Thursday, and he is expected to meet with Pope Francis and top Italian officials during a visit to Europe.
What’s happened so far
Biden’s trip was announced before the passing of former President Jimmy Carter in late December, and it’s currently unclear if the state funeral and National Day of Mourning also scheduled for Thursday will impact his travel plans. Assuming the visit goes forward as scheduled, Biden will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Sergio Mattarella to “highlight the strength of the U.S.-Italy relationship” following his visit with the pope to “discuss efforts to advance peace around the world.” The outgoing president last met with Pope Francis in June, when he was in Italy for Group of Seven meetings.
The impact
Visits this late in a presidency are relatively rare, with George H.W. Bush the last commander-in-chief to make an overseas trip in the final month of his term when he signed a nuclear treaty in Moscow and met with French President François Mitterrand in 1993.
Jan. 10 – U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments over law that could lead to TikTok ban
The highest court in the United States is set to hear arguments Friday over a federal law that would require TikTok be sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a nationwide ban.
What’s happened so far
In April 2024, Congress passed a law — the Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act — requiring that TikTok be sold to an American company by Jan. 19 over national security concerns. U.S. officials worry that China could force ByteDance to turn over data it collects from TikTok users, such as browsing history and biometric identifiers. TikTok has argued that the law unconstitutionally restricts free speech and that it unfairly targets the company while other online platforms raise similar concerns. Last month, a federal appeals court rejected the arguments and upheld the law.
The impact
The Biden administration has asked the court to keep the law in place, pointing to concerns that data collected by the app could be used by China for espionage or blackmail. President-elect Donald Trump, who attempted to ban TikTok during his first term in office, has asked the court to pause the sale deadline to allow him time to address the issue after he takes office on Jan. 20. The Supreme Court could decide to put the law on hold as litigation continues or allow it to go into effect as scheduled. If the law is upheld, TikTok’s 170 million users in the United States could see the app gone as soon as mid-January. The company earlier warned that a ban would strongly impact small businesses and social media creators, costing them $1.3 billion in revenue and earnings in a single month.
What Else Matters
New Orleans crash
At least 15 people were killed and nearly three dozen others injured in the early morning hours of New Year’s Day after a man drove a vehicle into crowds of people on Bourbon Street in New Orleans’ French Quarter. Officials are investigating the incident as a terrorist act. Multiple potential explosive devices were also found near the site of the attack and rendered safe by police, along with one in the vehicle. The suspect, 42-year-old Shamsud Din Jabbar, was shot and killed by responding officers. Police say they do not believe Jabbar, a U.S. citizen from Texas and Army veteran, acted alone.
Watch for: In remarks late Wednesday, President Joe Biden said Jabbar was “inspired by” the Islamic State, with the group’s flag found on the truck as police continue to investigate any possible links to terrorist organizations. It is also unclear if there is any connection to a Cybertruck explosion outside the Trump Tower in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning that left one person dead and seven others with minor injuries. The attack also triggered a one-day postponement of the Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia, as event security takes on greater importance with Super Bowl LIX set to be held at the Superdome in just over a month.
Puerto Rico blackout
Roughly 1.3 million customers, or 90 percent of households, lost power during a massive outage affecting all corners of Puerto Rico around 5:30 am local time on New Year’s Eve. The island’s grid operator, Luma Energy, claims power was restored to roughly 98 percent of customers by Wednesday morning. Luma is a private Canadian-American consortium contracted to run power distribution by the government of Puerto Rico, while a separate company, Genera, holds contracts for power generation. Luma has blamed the incident on a faulty 230,000-volt underground transmission line, which it says caused a domino effect shutting down power plants in Central Aguirre and Palo Seco. Luma, Genera and the Puerto Rican government have been criticized for their slow modernization of the island’s grid following months of outages with Hurricane Maria in 2017 and a blackout that impacted roughly half the population during Hurricane Ernesto this August.
Watch for: President Joe Biden and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm spoke with now-former Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi on Tuesday about bolstering the island’s grid. Pierluisi lost his party’s primary in June and was officially replaced today by fellow New Progressive Party member Jenniffer Gonzalez. Gonzalez has promised to appoint an energy czar and push for more federal funds. Another, smaller blackout was experienced on the island on New Year’s Day, and restoration efforts took the longest in the Ponce region. If blackouts continue at the pace of 2024, it could severely damage the island’s major tourism and pharmaceutical sectors.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 3-10
Jan. 5
- Congestion pricing begins in New York City
Jan. 6
- Congressional certification of 2024 U.S. presidential election
Jan. 8
- Coast guards to conduct first drill in Tokyo Bay; Japan, U.S., Philippines to conduct drills off Kagoshima
Jan. 9
- Biden visits Italy
- Jimmy Carter state funeral
Jan. 10
- Pakistan’s PIA to resume flights to Europe
- Ex-presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office
- U.S. Supreme Court to hear arguments on law banning TikTok
Jan. 11-17
Jan. 12
- Comoros to hold parliamentary elections
Jan. 13
- Next nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries
Jan. 14
- Confirmation hearing set for Trump defense nominee
Jan. 16
- Vanuatu snap election
Jan. 17
- Iran’s Pezeshkian to visit Moscow
Jan. 18-24
Jan. 20
- Davos Summit
- United States presidential inauguration
Jan. 25-31
Jan. 26
- Belarusian presidential election
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Top photo: MTA Chair & CEO Janno Lieber holds a media availability at Manhattan’s Fulton Transit Center on Nov. 13, 2023 before boarding a PATH train to New Jersey where he is to appear at a federal court hearing on a congestion pricing class action complaint. (Photo: Marc A. Hermann / MTA)
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