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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
North Korea’s recent missile launches, including the test of an ICBM, has brought condemnation from nations around the world. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Vivian Wang discuss the launches and other provocative moves from North Korea and what to watch for next.
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Week of Nov. 8-15
A Look Ahead
Nov. 8 – Bolivia president issues government report amid political crisis
Bolivian President Luis Arce will present his administration’s penultimate government report Friday, before the end of his presidential term.
What’s happened so far
The president will present the Bolivian administration’s report four years into his term and ahead of the 2025 presidential election, which is due in August. He will do so in front of the country’s parliament amid political tensions marked by protests against an arrest warrant issued for former President Evo Morales on statutory rape and human trafficking charges. Pro-Morales protesters, known as evistas, have been blocking multiple roads in the country since October, often engaging in clashes with police and detaining soldiers in one instance in Cochabamba.
The impact
Arce’s administration officials have accused evistas of boycotting the current government as protest blockades add pressure on the country’s economy, which is already strained by fuel shortages, a rise in the price of basic products and highly destructive wildfires in the Amazon and Chiquitania. On the political front, Arce faces an ongoing division inside his Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) with the evista sector of the party accusing him of abuse of power. Morales, who led the country between 2006 and 2019, has challenged the country’s laws and all of his successors in his aim to run for office again.
Nov. 8 – Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis will meet his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Athens on Friday.
What’s happened so far
The meeting, confirmed by diplomatic sources, comes amid a recent ease in tension between the two countries that have had a fraught relationship for decades over matters of airspace and maritime jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean, energy resources and the Cyprus dispute. The prime ministers of both countries met on the sidelines of a U.N. convention in September and discussed initiating talks on maritime zones.
The impact
The foreign ministers are expected to explore an agreement on demarcation of an exclusive economic zone, which is important in determining rights over gas reserves and power infrastructure schemes. In addition, the meeting is likely to provide a pathway to resume reunification talks in relation to Cyprus which fell through in 2017.
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Nov. 10 – Mauritius legislative elections
The Indian Ocean Island of Mauritius will vote Sunday in the country’s legislative elections.
What’s happened so far
Incumbent Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth of the ruling Militant Socialism Movement will face two major opposition parties in the upcoming elections, including the center-left Labour Party and the left-wing socialist Mauritian Militant Movement. Mauritius’ state-controlled communications regulator ordered a shutdown of all internet providers on Nov. 1, citing a wiretapping scandal involving multiple senior politicians, police officers and members of civil society. The opposition accused Jugnauth of ordering the shutdown in an attempt to skew polls, prompting the government to lift the ban the following day.
The impact
Government forces are likely to increase their security presence across Mauritius in the coming days in order to monitor election-related events and possible disruptions such rallies and protests. Despite the wiretapping incident, which is expected to impact the election results, Jugnauth is adamant on securing a second term. Analysts are anxious, however, that protests could persist if accusations of voting irregularities emerge after the results.
Nov. 12 – Somaliland presidential election
The breakaway region in northern Somalia on Wednesday will hold a presidential election, roughly two years after the initial scheduled date.
What’s happened so far
Somaliland declared de-facto independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991, and, since then, has built a relatively successful democracy, with multiple peaceful transfers of power, including most recently in 2021’s parliamentary vote. Somaliland’s government is only officially recognized by Ethiopia, but administers public services and commands a significant fighting force. Somaliand’s democratic institutions have proven to be flexible, with elections frequently getting delayed, including the upcoming presidential vote that was initially scheduled for October 2022. Despite being generally safer than southern Somalia, the region has fought a separatist militia since 2022 that currently controls the city of Laascaanood.
The impact
Somaliland’s constitution allows for three parties to seek the presidency, but the election should come down to incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi’s Kulmiye party and the opposition Waddani party of Abdirahman Mohammed Abdullahi. Political allegiance in Somaliland is largely based on clans and subclans, but a Waddani government would likely take a more nationalist stance against Mogadishu and separatists in Laascaanood, while pushing for cross-clan power sharing within Somaliland. Either party is expected to continue the alliance with Ethiopia, with whom they struck a deal in 2024 to share port access. International observers will also be monitoring the legitimacy of the vote, as they did in 2017.
Nov. 14 – APEC leaders’ summit in Lima
Dignitaries from 21 of the Pacific Rim’s largest economies will arrive in Peru on Thursday for next week’s annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation trade group amid significant unhappiness in the country.
What’s happened so far
This will be Peru’s third time hosting the meeting, but it comes as protests continue over crime and corruption allegations against President Dina Boluarte, who has a record-low popularity rating of 4 percent. Peru’s prime minister asked people to not march or protest during APEC, saying Peru would be on display for the world. To that end, Boluarte announced thousands of Peruvian soldiers would help support the police in Lima, and Peru’s Congress approved a resolution that allows 600 American troops to enter the country to help keep the peace. The country also declared three non-working days for non-essential sectors. Several transportation unions have already announced strikes.
The impact
Amid the uncertainty, few world leaders have confirmed they will participate in the meeting. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has already said he would not attend. If protests disrupt APEC, it could reflect poorly on the nation as it deals with the anger of its population. The gridlock and transport strikes will also significantly affect the day-to-day life of people in Lima, possibly increasing the chance of clashes on the streets. It could also possibly hasten Boluarte’s removal from office.
Nov. 14 – Sri Lanka general election
On Thursday, Sri Lanka will vote for a new parliament, less than two months after electing a new president.
What’s happened so far
In September’s general election, Sri Lankans elected the Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake as their new president, following decades under political elite that left the country with $37 billion in external debt. In his campaign, Dissanayake pledged to boost Sri Lanka’s economy, bring change for those struggling under austerity measures linked to a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout program and expand the country’s existing welfare scheme. But Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) alliance only held three of 255 seats in the legislature, leading him to dissolve the parliament and call for a snap general election shortly after taking oath.
The impact
Analysts said Dissanayake’s intentions to cut taxes and revisit the terms of the IMF bailout have worried investors, who fear that it could delay future disbursements. Another challenge the government would likely face as it looks to bolster foreign investments is navigating its relationships with two of its most important trading partners, China and India. Whether the NPP can ride on the momentum and secure enough support in the legislature will be crucial in determining if Dissanayake would be able bring about the much needed change and deliver the promise of lifting Sri Lanka’s population from poverty.
What Else Matters
U.S. election aftermath
Former President Donald Trump will reclaim his old office in January, after a strong showing across all seven of the “swing states” propelled him to an electoral college victory on Tuesday. Republicans also gained control of the Senate and appeared slightly favored to maintain their narrow House majority. The 45th and soon-to-be 47th president called his win, “the greatest political movement of all time,” while vowing to “fix everything about our country.” Vice President Kamala Harris conceded Wednesday, echoing her campaign mantra that, “When we fight, we win,” but this time adding, “sometimes the fight takes a while.”
Watch for: Protests were seen across the country in the wake of Trump’s first win in 2016, and that type of backlash could repeat itself in the coming days, as those in urban areas that voted significantly to the left of the nation come to terms with the result. Trump’s victory also threatens to overhaul the international geopolitical scene, as his America First ethos reshapes long-standing alliances around the world.
North Korean military activity
North Korea is back in the spotlight over a flurry of recent military activity, launching their first intercontinental ballistic missile this year, firing a salvo of short-range ballistic missiles just before the U.S. elections, and sending troops to Ukraine to support Russia. Tensions on the Korean peninsula are also increasingly fraught, with North Korea continuing to float trash balloons across the border and destroying inter-Korean roads once seen as symbols of cooperation.
Watch for: North Korea remains poised to conduct its seventh-ever nuclear test. With recent statements from officials making clear that the country is committed to building and using its nuclear arsenal, weapons tests will likely continue unabated. Russia and North Korea are appearing to become increasingly enmeshed, especially after Russia’s parliament ratified a strategic partnership agreement with North Korea. It remains to be seen how the reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump will affect relations, though North Korea has suggested the change in administration will not make an impact.
Aftermath of DANA storm system in Spain
Catastrophic flash floods have killed at least 217 people and caused massive damage to infrastructure over the past week across southern and eastern Spain. Almost all of the deaths have come from the Valencia region, where search and rescue efforts and authorities struggle to gauge the scale of the damage. Deaths were also recorded in Castilla-la Mancha and Andalusia, and there was mass disruption in Catalonia on Monday as torrential rains swept the region, triggering heavy flooding. The Spanish government estimated reconstruction costs in Valencia alone at €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion USD) and allocated emergency resources to impacted regions. The flooding was caused by a destructive weather system known by the acronym DANA (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) in Spanish, or “high-altitude isolated depression” in English. This phenomenon is a regular occurrence in summer and fall in Spain, but are rarely this destructive. Climate experts warn increases in the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea, caused by global heating, are creating conditions for more powerful DANA to occur with greater frequency.
Watch for: There has been significant anger and frustration in Spain at the perceived lack of warning and insufficient response from authorities to the flooding. On Sunday, a crowd of protesters pelted the king, queen and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez with mud, forcing them to abandon their visit to the heavily-impacted town of Paiporta in Valencia. Frustrations are likely to grow as local authorities petition the central government for funds and resources to channel into reconstruction. Meanwhile, efforts on the ground continue to locate missing people and recover bodies trapped by the devastating floods.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 8-15
Nov. 8
- Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet
- Bolivia’s President Arce issues government report
- China expands visa-free policy to 9 more countries
Nov. 10
- Mauritius legislative elections
Nov. 12
- Palau elections
- Somaliland presidential elections
Nov. 14
- Sri Lanka elections
- APEC leaders’ summit in Lima
- UK finance minister to give Mansion House speech
Nov. 16-22
Nov. 17
- Senegal parliamentary election
Nov. 18
- Trump assassination attempt suspect trial
Nov. 20
- US to convene global AI safety summit
Nov. 23-29
Nov. 23
- India’s Maharashtra election
Nov. 24
- Uruguay presidential runoff
Nov. 25
- India Parliament’s winter session to begin
Nov. 26
- Former President Donald Trump’s sentencing in hush money criminal case
Nov. 27
- Indonesia regional elections
Nov. 29
- Spain’s ruling PSOE federal convention
Nov. 30-Dec. 6
Nov. 30
- Iceland snap elections
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Top photo: Bolivian President Luis Arce will present his administration’s penultimate government report this week ahead of the 2025 election. (Photo: Asamblea Legislativa Plurinacional / Flickr)
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