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Relations between India and Canada further soured this week after both countries announced the expulsion of several top diplomats. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the expulsions’ relation to tensions over the June 2023 assassination of a Sikh separatist in Canada and what to watch for next.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of October 18 – 24
A Look Ahead
Oct. 17 – Central California red flag warning
A Diablo wind event is expected to bring critical wildfire risk for much of California’s Central Coast, including San Francisco, beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend.
What’s happened so far
Portions of Northern and Coastal California will experience humidity as low as 10 percent, winds of up to 35 mph, and dry fuel conditions. The National Weather Service to issued a red flag warning through Saturday night, saying that critical fire weather conditions are “likely or imminent” for the area.
The impact
Utility company PG&E announced public safety power shutoffs are possible across multiple counties, including Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, Solano and Sonoma, to reduce risk of fire by its equipment. Authorities are advising residents in these areas to prepare an emergency plan, including possible evacuation options.
Oct. 19 – Germany’s Scholz to meet with Erdogan in Istanbul
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Istanbul on Saturday amid the continuing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.
What’s happened so far
Scholz and Erdogan have maintained a strong relationship, meeting several times since Scholz took office in Dec. 2021 despite a difference in opinions that has come to light in recent months. Scholz was the first foreign leader to visit Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Erdogan, meanwhile, has used escalating rhetoric criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Turkey has also maintained a desire to join the European Union, but ongoing roadblocks prompted the nation to instead reach out to Russia and the BRICS alliance despite expressing “unwavering” support for Ukraine.
The impact
Scholz is expected to urge Turkey to help stabilize the Middle East. Germany also is said to have softened its opposition to letting Turkey purchase Eurofighter fighter jets. Depending on the outcome of this weekend’s talks, Germany may help bring Turkey into a more diplomatic role with the two conflicts and align closer with the West while also recalibrating defense and economic ties between Turkey and the EU.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Oct. 19 – British Columbia Provincial Election
British Columbia’s ruling New Democratic Party (NDP) will face a competitive challenge from the province’s Conservative Party during a vote Saturday for 93 provincial legislators.
What’s happened so far
The left-wing NDP has controlled British Columbia’s government since John Horgan was elected premier in 2017. Horgan won a landslide election in 2020 before resigning and opening the door for current Premier David Eby. British Columbia’s current official opposition, the BC Liberals, also known as BC United, decided to not contest seats this year after a drop in their polling since 2020. Instead, it will support the BC Conservative Party, who has surged in the polls despite not being a major player in the province’s politics for more than half a century. The Conservatives are led by former Liberal John Rustad, who was kicked out of the Liberals for a tweet doubting the human connection to climate change.
The impact
While the NDP lead the most recent popular-vote polling by roughly five points, a Conservative government is still possible. Although the NDP dominates on Vancouver Island, districts in the city of Vancouver and the surrounding Lower Mainland are polling much closer. The BC Conservative Party’s success corresponds to federal election polling, where Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would likely lose in a landslide to Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre if voting were held tomorrow. The next government in Victoria will be expected to address the province’s extreme housing costs and the high rates of drug abuse and homelessness in its cities.
Oct. 20 – Kurdistan elections
On Sunday, millions of Iraqi Kurdish citizens will head to booths to vote in the region’s parliamentary elections.
What’s happened so far
Iraqi Kurdistan politicians postponed at least four times the parliamentary elections initially set for 2022. This is due to disagreements over election minority seats between the two main nationalist parties: the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). At the forefront of the elections are the region’s economic woes tied to the central Iraqi government following the suspension of independent oil exports from the region to Turkey in 2023. Conflict between members of the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party and Turkish government continues in the northern mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan, but it’s unlikely the parliamentary elections will have much effect on that conflict.
The impact
After two years of postponements and delays, it’s unknown how high voter turnout will be in this year’s parliamentary elections; the last elections had only 59 percent in 2018. To win a majority, a party will need to secure 51 of 100 up-for-grab seats, and while KDP and the PUK dominate Kurdish elections, there have been minority seats put in place for Christians and Turkish parties, in addition to at least 30 percent set aside for women.
Oct. 20 – Moldova presidential election and referendum
Voters in the Republic of Moldova will head to the polls Sunday to vote not only for a potential new president, but also on a referendum on whether the small country should join the European Union.
What’s happened so far
Incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu is seeking a second term after winning office in 2020, with her center-right Party of Action and Solidarity currently holding a majority in parliament. Sandu will face off against a record 10 other candidates, including pro-Russia Alexander Stoianoglo as well as Renato Usatii, who wants to balance ties with Russia and the West.
The impact
Recent polling suggests Sandu will secure both her position and a mandate for the country to join the EU, though a weak result for Sandu could affect parliamentary elections for her party next year. A “no” vote on the referendum would not be binding. Both the Moldovan government and the European Parliament condemned Russia for apparently attempting to sway the elections via vote bribery and information warfare.
Oct. 22 – BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia
Russia will host the 25th BRICS summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, the capital of the southwest province of Tatarstan.
What’s happened so far
Founded in the wake of the late-2000s global financial collapse, BRICS, initially composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, sought to create an alternative to the western-led global financial architecture. This year’s summit will be the first to include Egypt and Iran, the so-called BRICS+ members, as well as a multitude of other countries considering membership.
The impact
The meeting being held in Russia this year is indicative of the fractures that exist within BRICS. While conceived to boost the influence of developing economies in global financial systems, the group has since become a geopolitical tool for Moscow and Beijing to oppose their shared western adversaries. Russia, for its part, will use this year’s summit to push for alternate international payment pathways in order to skirt sanctions imposed against it via western financial mechanisms.
Oct. 24 – France to hold Lebanon conference
France’s Foreign Ministry announced earlier this month that it would host a conference on Lebanon on Thursday.
What’s happened so far
Paris has maintained ties with Lebanon since the country was made a French mandate by the League of Nations shortly after WWI. France engaged in recent negotiations between Israel and Lebanon that stalled toward the end of September when Israel’s heavy bombing campaign of Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
The impact
France said the conference will focus on both the political situation in Lebanon and the need to “mobilize the international community” to provide humanitarian aid as Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign and ground offensive in the south has led to the displacement of more than 1.2 million people. Israel has reportedly not been invited to the talks, which are instead set to be attended by regional and international partners of Lebanon as well as members of the civil society and the United Nations.
What Else Matters
Israel-United Nations spat
Israel said it wants the U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon to leave “combat areas,” where the mission has been stationed for decades, worsening relations with the international body after bombing multiple U.N. health and education sites in Gaza and banning Secretary General Antonio Guterres from entering its territory.
Watch for: Israel’s military continues to expand its invasion of southern Lebanon in what it says is an operation to fight militant group Hezbollah and allow its war-displaced residents of northern villages to return. That offensive included direct attacks on U.N. military bases in Naqoura and Ramyah that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims were not deliberate. Fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon has intensified over the past week, raising the risk for the nearly 10,000-soldier U.N. force which so far hasn’t intervened to limit either side’s attacks.
India-Canada tensions
High Commissioner of India to Canada Sanjay Verma and five other Indian diplomats were ordered Monday to leave Canada, as diplomatic ties continue to deteriorate between the two nations. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police identified the six officials as “persons of interest” in the June 2023 assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia, while alleging agents of the Indian government have conducted “serious criminal activity,” in the country. In response, India ordered six Canadian diplomats to leave by Saturday night.
Watch for: Authorities are urging members of the Sikh community to come forward if they have any information relevant to Canada’s ongoing investigation of links between the Indian government and criminal acts on Canadian soil. In particular, police have warned members of the pro-Khalistan movement — which calls for an independent Sikh state carved out of India and is banned in that country — that they could be targeted. New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, a practicing Sikh, has called for sanctions on the expelled diplomats, and a ban on the Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 18 – 25
Oct. 19
- British Columbia elections
- Sholz-Erdogan to meet
- Central California Red flag warning
Oct. 20
- Kurdistan elections
- Moldova presidential elections
Oct. 22
- BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia
Oct. 24
- France to hold Lebanon conference
Oct. 26 – Nov. 1
Oct. 26
- Georgia parliamentary elections
Oct. 27
- Uruguay general elections
- Israeli Knesset returns from summer recess
- Brazil municipal elections second round
- Japan general elections
Oct. 30
- Botswana elections
Nov. 1
- UK tube drivers strike
Nov. 2 – 8
Nov. 2
- Dia de los Muertos
Nov. 5
- U.S. presidential election
Nov. 7
- Federal Reserve meeting
Nov. 8
- Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet
Nov. 9 – 15
Nov. 10
- Mauritius legislative elections
Nov. 12
- Palau elections
Nov. 14
- Sri Lanka elections
Top photo: German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speak after a meeting in Berlin in November 2023 (Photo: German Federal Government / Denzel)
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