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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Super Typhoon Yagi wreaked havoc in Asia in recent days, killing more than 190 people in Vietnam and leaving two dozen more dead in the Philippines and China. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Vivian Wang discuss the ongoing search and rescue operations and the vulnerable position the typhoon has left behind for survivors.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 13-20
A Look Ahead
Sept. 13 – X closes San Francisco headquarters
Elon Musk continues to put his stamp on the social media site formerly known as Twitter with the company leaving its longtime headquarters on Friday.
What’s happened so far
Last year, some school districts in California passed regulations stating schools had to notify parents if their children made changes to their gender identity, like using different pronouns or a different name. In July, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill that makes that illegal. It also shields teachers who want to support transgender students. At the time, Musk called the bill “the final straw” and said he’d be moving the headquarters of X and SpaceX to Texas, joining Tesla there after it moved out in 2021 following a fight over coronavirus restrictions.
The impact
Local residents say X hasn’t resembled Twitter, which got a big tax break to move to San Francisco’s struggling Mid-Market neighborhood, since Musk took over and fired about 80 percent of its employees. Musk continues to embrace right-wing politics and is making business decisions because of his worldview. With less than two months away from the U.S. election and in control of one of the top sources of news, it’s unclear if Musk will make more efforts to tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump.
Sept. 13 – Keir Starmer visits White House
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet President Joe Biden on Friday at the White House.
What’s happened so far
Marking the second such bilateral meeting since Starmer took over as prime minister, the two leaders are set to discuss a range of international issues of mutual interest, including Ukraine and Gaza. Other topics of discussion include efforts to bolster supply chains and climate resilience.
The impact
While no meetings have been announced between Starmer and Vice President Kamala Harris, now running to succeed President Biden, it is likely that she will be there for the meeting with Biden. No meeting with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been announced.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
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Sept. 16 – Germany tightens border controls
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser announced the government’s intention to tighten controls at all of the country’s borders beginning on Monday.
What’s happened so far
On Monday, the German cabinet approved a draft law laying out plans to implement tightened security controls at all of the country’s nine land borders in what it argued was an attempt to tackle illegal migration. Although Europe’s Schengen area allows for unrestricted travel between its member countries, EU law stipulates each country is allowed to introduce further border checks if they deem it necessary to counter a public threat. The move is set to be temporary, starting on Sept. 16 and lasting approximately six months with the possibility of extension. This comes after a series of deadly attacks in the country, including an ISIS-claimed knife attack in the western city of Solingen in August that left three people dead.
The impact
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appears to be seeking support from the anti-immigrant sentiment growing among the German population, which has over the past few months supported the opposition far-right and conservative politicians. A state election in Thuringia earlier this month saw the rise of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which marked the first far-right political group to win a state election since World War II. With polls suggesting the AfD could perform strongly in the upcoming state election in Brandenburg on Sept. 22, critics argue the government’s hardline push is more about politics than it is about effective security measures.
Sept. 16 – Appeals court hearing on U.S. TikTok ban
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear arguments from the Justice Department and TikTok lawyers Wednesday over the Biden administration’s bill requiring parent company ByteDance to divest or face a total ban.
What’s happened so far
TikTok has become America’s fifth-largest social media platform since its inception in 2017. The Chinese-owned company is accused of excessive data collection through its app, including user contacts, locations and even their current altitude. The Trump administration floated the idea of a ban in an official statement during August 2020, arguing that ByteDance’s close connections to the Chinese state posed a security threat. Ultimately, President Biden passed a bipartisan bill in April 2024 stating ByteDance has until January 2025 to sell the TikTok platform or face an outright ban. Since, Trump has reversed his stance and no longer supports a TikTok ban.
The impact
The first legal challenge to Biden’s “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act” will take place at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in front of judges Sri Srinivasan, Neomi Rao and Douglas Ginsburg. ByteDance has hired an all-star legal team to argue that divestment from the app is impossible and that TikTok’s data collection is industry standard, while the state will be represented by experienced appellate lawyer Daniel Tenny. Regardless of the hearing’s outcome, the case is expected to proceed to the Supreme Court.
Sept. 17 – Air Canada pilots strike
Air Canada pilots are expected to walk out on Tuesday after failed negotiations with the airline over wages.
What’s happened so far
The pilots union demands the airline levels Canadian salaries with those of their U.S. counterparts after labor deals signed in 2023 in the neighboring country amid a travel surge and pilot shortages. Pilots at the main U.S. carriers secured pay rises of between 34 and 40 percent over a four-year term. Negotiations between Air Canada and the Air Line Pilots Association have been ongoing for 15 months.
The impact
Air Canada representatives have expressed hope to reach an agreement before Sept. 15 with the 5,200 pilots threatening to strike. The shutdown could impact 110,000 passengers daily, according to the airline’s estimates, and disruption could extend for as many as 10 days later. The airline has started implementing contingency plans, including allowing passengers to cancel or reschedule flights between Sept. 15 and 23 at no additional cost, as the carrier could start to gradually suspend flights as early as Sunday.
Sept. 18 – Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir
On Wednesday, around 9 million people will head to polls for the first time in 10 years in the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir provincial elections.
What’s happened so far
In this year’s parliamentary elections, voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir increased substantially, leading the electoral commission, backed by the Supreme Court, to hold provincial elections. The region, due to an ongoing armed insurgency, had its special status and autonomy revoked in 2019 and subsequently upheld earlier this year, and it has not had an election since 2014. The elections will be held across three phases for different municipalities starting Wednesday, the second on Sept. 25 and the last day on Oct. 1, with votes counted on Oct. 4.
The impact
It is yet to be seen how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party fares in the contested region’s provincial elections, but it’s clear he has made an attempt to gain some popularity there from his recent visit in March. The region has been mired in conflict as of late, with insurgent militants conducting large-scale attacks on both civilians and security forces, one of which killed 10 Hindu pilgrims and left dozens injured during an ambush in Reasi. The stakes are high for the region, and it is likely that attacks will continue in the run-up to the elections, as well as during them.
What Else Matters
Super Typhoon Yagi
The strongest tropical storm to hit Asia this year has left hundreds of people dead across the Philippines, China and Vietnam. Yagi started off as a tropical storm east of the Philippines, bringing heavy rains that set off landslides and flooding that killed at least 16 people in the country’s north. The storm then moved west, strengthening into a super typhoon before making landfall twice in southern China, killing four people and disrupting the lives of millions of residents. Yagi has had the deadliest impact, however, after its final landfall in northern Vietnam on Saturday. More than 190 people are dead and dozens more missing in Vietnam as of Wednesday evening due to widespread landslides and flooding caused by Yagi’s heavy rains, even as the storm technically dissipated into a tropical depression after moving inland.
Watch for: Northern Vietnam in particular will likely remain vulnerable to extreme weather through the remainder of its rainy season and the Pacific typhoon season, both of which generally continue through the next few months. Critical infrastructure and industrial hubs in northern Vietnam took a hit from the storm as well, including areas that host factories for multinational companies. Yagi has had the deadliest impact, however, after its final landfall in northern Vietnam on Saturday.
Hurricane Francine
Hurricane Francine made landfall Wednesday evening along the Louisiana coast as a category 2 storm, bringing heavy rainfall and high winds to the New Orleans metro area. Along with widespread flash flooding, the storm forced the cancellation of all flights out of Louis Armstrong International Airport, and left tens of thousands of people without power.
Watch for: Despite quick weakening after reaching land, the remnants of Francine will continue to impact Louisiana, Mississippi and the greater Mid-South into the weekend. While preseason predictions called for an above-average season in the Atlantic basin, there were only five named storms through the month of August. However, forecasters were monitoring four other systems across the Atlantic as of Wednesday, a reminder that the traditional season still has more than two months to go.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 13-20
Sept. 13
- Twitter closes San Francisco headquarters
- Keir Starmer visits White House
Sept. 16
- Appeals court hearing on U.S. TikTok ban
- Tightening of border security Germany
Sept. 17
- Air Canada pilots strike
Sept. 18
- Federal Reserve Meeting
- Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir
Sept. 21-27
Sept. 21
- Sri Lanka presidential elections
Sept. 22
- Japan’s PM Kishida U.S. visit
- Germany’s Brandenburg elections
Sept. 27
- Japan’s ruling LDP to hold party’s leadership election
Sept. 28-Oct.4
Sept. 30
- Labor contracts for US East Coast ports set to expire
Oct. 1
- Claudia Sheinbaum takes office as new Mexico president
- CBS vice presidential debate
- Myanmar census
Oct. 4
- Vote counting after three stages of elections in India-administered J&K
Oct. 5-11
Oct. 6
- Brazil municipal elections first round
- Tunisia presidential elections
Oct. 7
- Malaysia court to hear ex-PM Najib’s appeal on house arrest decision
Oct. 10
- Europa Clipper launch window opens
Top photo: X, the social media company formerly known as Twitter, will close its longtime headquarters in San Francisco by the end of the week. (Photo: Filip Troníček / Wikimedia Commons)
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