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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss Hurricane Helene, plus more on Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visiting the White House, a leadership election for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party, parliamentary elections in Austria and a possible strike by dockworkers across the US East and Gulf coasts.
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This episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, Awais Ahmad and Matthew Hipolito. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
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Factal Forecast podcast transcript
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Sept. 26.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got Hurricane Helene headed for Florida, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visiting the White House, a leadership election for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party, parliamentary elections in Austria and a possible strike by dockworkers across the US East and Gulf coasts.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Hurricane Helene
Information compiled by Joe Veyera
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Hurricane Helene. For more on that I’ve got our North America lead, Joe Veyera.
JIMMY: Hello, Joe.
JOE: Hey, Jimmy, good to be back.
JIMMY: Glad you’re here. Looks like the US Gulf Coast has its hands full with this storm bearing down. What can you tell us about it?
JOE: Yeah, so as of Wednesday afternoon, Helene was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center had forecast significant strengthening by the time it makes landfall along Florida’s Big Bend by Thursday evening, likely becoming a major hurricane with winds near 120 mph. This is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic season, which for much of the summer had been quieter than anticipated. But a slow start doesn’t mean we were out of the woods as we head into October.
JIMMY: What’s the latest? Any new developments?
JOE: A total of 61 counties in Florida are under a state of emergency – basically every county outside of the southeast portion of the state – while the governors of Georgia and North Carolina have followed suit with their own declarations. We’re also seeing a pretty significant impact on day-to-day life, with schools closed Thursday across much of Florida, airport operations suspended in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tallahassee, and fairly widespread evacuation orders in the region.
JIMMY: Well, I know a lot of folks are really bracing for the storm. What kind of reactions have you seen so far?
JOE: There’s definitely concern on the part of local officials, with Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey warning Wednesday that if Helene stayed on its current track it would cause “unprecedented damage like nothing we have ever experienced before as a community.” That’s pretty strong language, and that concern has prompted mandatory county-wide evacuations in the Big Bend counties of Franklin, Taylor and Wakulla, covering approximately 70,000 residents. Outside of those counties, evacuations have been slightly more targeted to those living in low-lying or coastal areas, as well as people in manufactured homes and any structure generally considered incapable of withstanding tropical storm force winds. The NHC hasn’t really minced words either, warning if the “nightmare” storm surge scenario comes to pass for Apalachee Bay in the Big Bend, the latest forecast calls for 12 to 18 feet if peak surge coincides with high tide.
JIMMY: Wow. Well, considering all that, what do you think folks should be watching for next?
JOE: The main thing throughout the day on Thursday is what the storm’s path is going to be, and if we do see the strengthening currently being forecast. If a Category 3 storm hits Tallahassee directly, that is likely going to cause significant damage and a cleanup measured in weeks and months instead of days. That’s a city that has generally avoided the brunt of the worst storms, so there isn’t even necessarily a good comparison point for us here. Then as we get into the weekend, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the flooding risk across the southeastern US, and particularly the Atlanta area.
JIMMY: Well, Joe, we’ll need to pause there for today, but I know you’ll be keeping a close eye on things for us. Appreciate that.
JOE: Anytime.
Zelenskyy to meet Biden and Harris at White House
Information compiled by James Morgan
JIMMY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Washington today. He’s meeting with President Joe Biden and Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
It’s part of a bid to convince allies to allow Ukrainian forces to strike deeper into Russian territory with U.S. weapons.
He is also expected to present his “victory plan” to former President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump, saying there is a need to talk to each of the candidates “about their perception” of the war in Ukraine ahead of the November election.
Zelenskyy said that he wants the plan implemented by the end of December and it would strengthen Ukraine and force Russia to the negotiating table.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said western permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike within Russia would be considered direct participation in the war by NATO countries and would mark a significant change in the conflict.
Now, the meetings come at a critical moment in the ongoing conflict as Ukraine struggles to slow Russia’s grinding advance in the eastern region of Donetsk and maintain its offensive in Russia’s Kursk region.
While the Biden administration has remained steadfast in its support for Ukraine, it has been reluctant to give the green light for the use of its weapons on Russian territory amid concerns of a significant escalation from Russia.
Harris has indicated she would continue Biden’s policies of backing Ukraine, while former president Trump claimed in the recent debate he had a plan to end the war.
Russia, however, has shown no signals it is ready to participate in talks, stating earlier this week “there is no alternative to Russian victory.”
Any move toward allowing strikes with long-range weapons on Russian territory, while unlikely to change the nature of the war, will likely mean a step-up in Russian strikes on critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
Japan’s LDP to hold leadership election
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Lawmakers of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party will choose their next president tomorrow.
Japan’s incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his surprise decision to step down in August, ending his three-year term in office.
This came as LDP’s approval ratings plummet to record lows amid rising inflation and the impact of controversies, including the party’s alleged ties to the Unification Church and the slush funds scandal that led to dissolution of LDP’s several major factions.
The LDP’s 369 lawmakers will vote to choose the party’s next president from a record of nine candidates who have qualified for the race this year.
With the LDP’s majority in the lower house, the elected leader will most certainly go on to become Japan’s next prime minister.
Now, after three years marred by economic challenges and political scandals, it is crucial for the LDP’s new leader to bring the party together and win back public support.
With none of the candidates expected to win a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff is likely.
The race is seen by analysts as the one of the most unpredictable ones in recent years and will undoubtedly have a profound impact on Japan’s politics and economic policies.
Austria parliamentary elections
Information compiled by Awais Ahmad
JIMMY: Austria will elect a new parliament on Sunday. The far-right, anti-immigration Freedom Party, also known as the FPO, is leading the polls as the likely winner.
Amid voter concerns over cost of living and immigration policy, the FPO has slowly emerged as a strong contender while the Social Democrats and the Austrian People’s Party trail behind.
Still, though it has led the polls since late 2022, the FPO is not likely to win an outright majority and would need to form the government with a coalition partner.
Chancellor Karl Nehammar has refused to join a government headed by the FPO, saying its leader Herbert Kickl is more radical than his predecessors.
Now, climate change, inflation and immigration are among the key issues in the election.
Still, Austria is likely to see stronger immigration controls regardless of which party wins the most votes or leads the coalition.
However, a win for the FPO will likely strain relations with the rest of the EU with the party opposing sanctions against Russia, its main gas provider
International Longshoremen’s Association potential strike
Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito
JIMMY: Longshoremen across the US East and Gulf coasts could go on strike starting Tuesday.
That’s when the contract expires between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, the employers’ group which represents the ports.
Should no new deal be reached and the ILA members strike, it will shut down container operations at virtually every port on the US East Coast, including the ports of Houston, South Louisiana, and New York and New Jersey.
The negotiations are highly contentious so far.
The maritime alliance accuses the dockworker’s union of being unwilling to bargain, while the union called the alliance “stingy” and claimed their wage increase offer was “low-ball” and a “joke.”
Now, the enormous complexity of global supply chains, and the role of ILA’s eastern United States ports, portend massive disruptions to virtually all industries should a strike go ahead – both in terms of shipping delays and additional incurred costs.
Consulting firm Sea-Intelligence estimates that a two-week strike would slow down cargo traffic through January, while Mitre places the economic impact of a strike at more than $1 billion every two days at the busiest ports.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, Awais Ahmad and Matthew Hipolito. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
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Music: ‘Factal Theme’ courtesy of Andrew Gospe
Top photo: Hurricane Helene is set to be a Category 4 storm by the time is makes landfall in Florida. (GIF: NOAA)
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