Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously upheld a judge’s decision this week to block Elon Musk’s X social network. The move is tied to alleged violations of court orders and the spread of hate speech and misinformation. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jaime Calle Moreno discuss the feud between Musk and Justice Alexandre de Moraes and the potential for similar blocks elsewhere.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 6-13
A Look Ahead
Sept. 6 – Kosovar Serbs call for border blockade
The head of the Mitrovica Citizens’s Association Rasa Rojevic announced a blockade of all administrative border crossings with Serbia in North Kosovo starting Friday, including checkpoints in Bernjak, Jarinje, Merdare, Koncul and Kula.
What’s happened so far
Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo’s Serb-majority north are protesting police raids on local administration offices in the region. The offices, also known as “parallel institutions,” were declared unconstitutional by the ethnic-Albanian-led central government on the grounds they are backed by Serbia. The move to close five offices on Sep. 30 raised tensions and prompted criticism from the U.S. ambassador, who said such actions “continue to have a direct and negative effect on members of the ethnic Serb community and other minority communities in Kosovo.”
The impact
The move by ethnic Serbs to blockade border points is a significant escalation in the region and tensions are likely to rise if the central government continues to close Serb-run parallel institutions in north Kosovo. Rojevic called on Serbs from Montenegro, Republika Srpska and Serbia to participate in the blockade. Disruption and potential confrontations between security forces and protesters are to be expected and may escalate into clashes at border points given previous protests in the area have resulted in violent clashes and the intervention of NATO-led Kosovo Force peacekeeping troops.
Sept. 6 – Boeing’s uncrewed Starliner could return
Boeing’s Starliner is scheduled to undock from the International Space Station to begin its near-six hour journey back to Earth without a crew Friday after problems with the spacecraft has left two astronauts stuck in orbit.
What’s happened so far
Within the first 24 hours of its flight, Starliner began to experience glitches with its propulsion and parachute systems. The propulsion system controls the spacecraft’s movements in space and makes small changes in orientation while the parachute system is deployed to slow it down during re-entry into earth’s atmosphere. Due to these problems, NASA has deemed a crewed return too risky, saying the two astronauts will be brought back on a separate mission early next year on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon.
The impact
Starliner’s technical issues and delays throw a wrench into Boeing’s plan for multiple crewed missions to the ISS within the decade and leave the spacecraft’s future in limbo. NASA opting for SpaceX therefore could signify a shift in its allocations of resources, potentially giving rise to emerging players in the spaceflight industry, including Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Going to GSX? See the latest from Factal at booth 2355.
Sept. 7 – Algeria presidential elections
Algeria will hold an election on Saturday, in which incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune will campaign against two other candidates.
What’s happened so far
Tebboune was first elected as Algeria’s president in 2019 elections that saw record-low turnout and a mass uprising known as the Hirak calling for new leadership and an end to the country’s ruling political elite. Since the previous election, Algeria has had to battle with the economic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic that only saw improvement when, with the outbreak of the Ukraine war, demand rose for Algerian oil and gas as an alternative to Russian energy. Analysts suggest Tebboune was able to use this victory to buy his support, more than doubling the country’s military budget to nearly $22 billion as of 2024.
The impact
Polls suggest Tebboune is likely to win a second five-year term due to the lack of viable alternatives, with opposition figureheads accusing the system of undemocratic practices in favor of maintaining the status quo. While there remains significant popular sentiment against the government, Tebboune’s amendment of the penal code and constitution has further reinforced his presidential powers, silencing unfavorable media outlets and facilitating the arrest of dissidents.
Sept. 7 – Italy public transport strikes
A series of air travel and public transport strikes over working conditions and compensation will begin in Italy on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Air travel disruptions are expected at Rome’s Fiumicino and Olbia, Milan Malpensa, Florence Amerigo Vespucci and Pisa Galileo Galilei airports with ground operations workers, including air traffic controllers and baggage handlers, on strike on Saturday. A rail nationwide strike on Monday will be followed by a national public transport workers’ walkout on Tuesday. The latter will include disruptions of bus, tram and underground services for eight hours.
The impact
The strikes are expected to impact thousands of national and international passengers during the last days of the holiday season and the first days of the school year. Similar actions are planned well into the end of the month, with five additional dates announced by multiple air and public transport carriers between Sept. 19 and 30.
Sept. 7 – Spain’s prime minister to visit China
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is set to meet President Xi Jinping during a six-day trip to China starting Saturday.
What’s happened so far
The visit comes amid ongoing trade disputes between China and the European Union after Brussels announced provisional duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles in June, over what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “massively subsidized electric cars.” In retaliation, China’s commerce ministry has opened an anti-dumping investigation into pork, dairy and brandy imports from the EU. Spain, the bloc’s largest pork exporter, constitutes 22 percent of China’s imported pork and its by-products in 2023 and is expected to bear the brunt of the impact.
The impact
While analysts said that Beijing could potentially turn to Russia and South America to replace pork imports, punitive measures from the Chinese side could have a significant impact on the EU’s pork sector as large portions of the bloc’s pork exports includes pigs ears, feet, and offal that are rarely consumed by Europeans. According to government sources, Sanchez’s visit will be joined by a deputy trade minister and discussions will likely touch on the ongoing tension between Brussels and China.
Sept. 8 – Paralympics closing ceremonies
The Stade de France outside Paris will host the closing ceremonies of the 2024 Paralympics on Sunday, with what organizers are calling a “huge, open-air party” for the public to follow.
What’s happened so far
French electro artist Jean-Michel Jarre will headline the festivities, capping almost two weeks of competition featuring 4,400 athletes across 22 sports. This year’s games marked the first time all sports had live coverage, with a record number of broadcasters airing events. Meanwhile, security procedures were in line with those for the Olympics, with 25,000 police officers deployed each day, along with 10,000 private security agents.
The impact
More than 2.3 million tickets were sold as of Tuesday, making it the second-highest attended Paralympics ever.
Sept. 10 – Peak of hurricane season
The Atlantic hurricane season’s climatological peak will happen on Tuesday after a relatively quiet few weeks.
What’s happened so far
The 2024 season began with a bang, when Hurricane Beryl became the earliest category 5 on record, in what seemed to be an harbinger of a busier than average hurricane season. However, those predictions have not come to pass thus far, with only five named storms through August in the Atlantic basin, one below the average. Water temperatures have been hotter than usual but other ingredients like moisture and areas of low pressure haven’t lent themselves to development. Even a particularly strong Saharan dust layer inhibited tropical storms from forming.
The impact
Sept. 10 is considered the peak of the hurricane season because that is the date in which the most tropical storms and hurricanes have been active in the Atlantic historically, but records show the majority of activity actually happens after that date. Although it now seems unlikely that the outlook of 25-30 named storms will come true, forecasters say things are ramping back up and they expect “two to four more direct impacts” to the United States this season.
Sept. 10 – ABC News presidential debate
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face-off at their first presidential debate on Tuesday as the presidential campaigns enter the sprint toward election day.
What’s happened so far
The first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign featured a widely maligned performance by President Joe Biden, forcing him to drop out of the race. Biden’s snap endorsement of his vice president on the same day he ended his re-election bid led Democrats to quickly unite around Harris, using the momentum of a new, younger candidate to propel the campaign through summer. Negotiations over the debate have centered around whether the candidate’s microphones will be muted while their opponent speaks. The Harris campaign has pushed back against microphone muting, while Trump has attacked host network ABC, leading to concerns he may bail at the last minute.
The impact
The debate, the only firmly scheduled meeting between the two nominees, will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia without a live audience. No further debates are currently planned, but the Harris campaign signaled it is willing to participate in a possible October meet. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, will face off in a vice presidential debate against his Republican counterpart Ohio Sen. JD Vance on Oct. 1.
What Else Matters
Israeli hostage deal protests
Israeli officials announced Sunday that Israeli troops recovered the bodies of six hostages captured during last October’s Hamas attack. Thousands of Israelis soon took to the streets to demand that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government seek another hostage deal with Hamas. An estimated 97 Oct. 7 victims are still being held in the Gaza Strip, although 33 are presumed dead. The largest protests took place in the left-leaning cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, and 29 people were arrested during clashes with police. Israeli labor unions called a general strike on Monday that shut down government offices and even the country’s main airport for several hours until a court ruled the shutdown did not constitute an official labor action.
Watch for: Netanyahu’s government has publicly stated their aim is to fight in Gaza until Hamas is completely dismantled, despite some military officials calling the goal unrealistic. Negotiations for the first hostage exchange since November 2023 have reportedly been held-up by Netanyahu’s insistence on keeping Israeli forces along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Despite the mass protests, which are expected to continue on a smaller level, Netanyahu’s government has regained some domestic popularity. Current polling for a hypothetical Israeli Knesset election shows Netanyahu with a slight lead over opposition leaders Yair Lapid or Benny Gantz.
Brazil bans Twitter
On Saturday, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court minister, Alexandre de Moraes, ordered the suspension of X, formerly known as Twitter, throughout the country following a months-long spat between the two entities. The suspension came primarily from two reasons – the first being X’s closure of its Brazilian office after Moraes, who also runs the investigation into the January 2023 Congress attack, threatened to arrest the platform’s representative in the country after requesting to suspend accounts that were deemed “anti-democratic” and pegging disinformation largely on the far-right. After a judicial online subpoena ordering X to appoint a new representative on Aug. 28 was ignored by X’s Elon Musk, Brazilian users on Saturday began noticing issues connecting to the social media platform. Starlink, Musk’s internet provider under his other company SpaceX, was also suspended and, after initially refusing, has now complied with the order as well as implying it will seek legal avenues for its reversal. Users caught accessing X through a VPN will be fined 50,000 Brazilian reais ($9,000 USD), with around 18.3 million reais ($3 million USD) unpaid in fines against X.
Watch for: With the Supreme Court unanimously ratifying the suspension order on Monday, X and Musk are in a difficult position if they want to operate in one of company’s largest countries by users, around 20 million X accounts, and additionally the roughly 250,000 people that use Starlink, largely in rural areas where internet connectivity is an issue. Musk has repeatedly accused Moraes of being a “dictator” and has posted several tweets calling him dishonest and accusing him of mass censorship, while Moraes on the other hand has accused Musk as being an “outlaw” who peddles disinformation and hate speech. It’s unclear who will win the tug-of-war between the two, and whether sufficient backlash from Brazilian X and Starlink users will force the hand of Moraes, an undeniably important figure in the country.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 6-13
Sept. 6
- NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
- Boeing’s uncrewed Starliner could return
- Kosovo border blockage
Sept. 7
- Algeria presidential election
- Spain’s Sanchez to visit China
- Italy public transport strikes
Sept. 8
- Paralympics closing ceremony
Sept. 10
- Jordan parliamentary elections
- ABC News presidential debate
- Peak of hurricane season
Sept. 11
- MTV Video Music Awards
Sept. 14-20
Sept. 16
- Appeals court hearing on U.S. TikTok ban
Sept. 17
- Possible Fox News presidential debate
Sept. 18
- Federal Reserve Meeting
- Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir
- Trump hush money case sentencing
Sept. 21-27
Sept. 21
- Sri Lanka presidential elections
Sept. 22
- Japan’s PM Kishida U.S. visit
- Germany’s Brandenburg elections
Sept. 27
- Japan’s ruling LDP to hold party’s leadership election
Sept. 28-Oct. 4
Sept. 30
- Labor contracts for US East Coast ports set to expire
Oct. 1
- Claudia Sheinbaum takes office as new Mexico president
- CBS vice presidential debate
Thanks for reading! If this was forwarded to you, you can sign up for free.
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.