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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The Debrief: The June 23 attacks in Russia’s Dagestan region left 20 people dead, underscoring the extent to which the North Caucasus continues to be a thorn in President Putin’s side two-and-a-half decades after the first major test of his leadership came from the region. In this month’s edition of the Debrief, Factal senior editor Alex Moore and Russia expert James Morgan explore how the Kremlin’s shifting policies toward the region have shaped unrest there and discuss Moscow’s subsequent response in the backdrop of Ukraine’s war. Read more in this month’s Debrief.
A Look Ahead
Aug. 5 – Net neutrality rules reinstated
A Federal Communications Commission decision to restore net neutrality regulations on internet service providers could come into effect when a court decision expires on Monday.
What’s happened so far
Net neutrality is the policy that internet service providers (ISPs) must not privilege or hinder any internet traffic with differences in speed or price. Early debates over net neutrality culminated in a 2005 Supreme Court decision granting the FCC power to enforce the policy. Under former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, net neutrality withstood multiple court challenges brought forth by ISPs like Verizon and Comcast. The issue has since become partisan with Republicans backing the end of net neutrality on the grounds that it would spur more investment in building infrastructure. Ultimately a Republican-majority FCC appointed by former President Donald Trump would stop enforcing net neutrality in 2018, prompting immediate legal challenges in blue states.
The impact
While state-level laws, including in California, have been successful at forcing many ISPs to continue providing essentially neutral services, some new data caps and bandwidth restrictions for public services have been attributed to the reversal. President Joe Biden campaigned on reinstating net neutrality, and his newly appointed FCC voted to do so in April 2024 after a Democratic majority was regained. The ruling was halted in July by the United States Sixth Circuit in response to a landmark Supreme Court case overturning the Chevron legal defense, meaning the FCC might lose the authority to govern net neutrality all together. The FCC is now facing off with broadband ISPs in the Sixth Circuit to determine if the policy will finally be able to come into effect.
Aug. 6 – U.S. and Australia foreign and defense ministers to meet
Defense and diplomatic chiefs for the United States will meet with their Australian counterparts in Maryland on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and their respective Australian counterparts Penny Wong and Richard Marles will take place in Annapolis. Situated within the two allies’ AUSMIN dialogue, the talks are designed to strengthen the extant alliance and cooperation on regional issues.
The impact
A large focus of the talks will likely remain Chinese assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region and defense cooperation efforts between Canberra and Washington. Last year’s AUSMIN dialogue resulted in an agreement from the United States to assist Australia in its procurement of a guided rocket system as well as granting Canberra streamlined munitions acquisition rights. Defense cooperation between the two long-standing allies has further blossomed in recent years, most notably with the advent of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership.
Aug. 6 – NTSB hearing on Boeing 737 MAX door incident
U.S. regulators will meet Tuesday for the first of two days of investigative hearings on a January incident on board an Alaska Airlines flight in which a door plug blew out shortly after takeoff from Oregon’s Portland International Airport.
What’s happened so far
The door plug incident came at the tail end of a three-year probationary period for Boeing in the wake of two fatal 737 MAX crashes, prompting new investigations into the company’s safety practices. In June, the NTSB said Boeing will also be subject to sanctions after disclosing non-public information regarding the door plug investigation to the media, violating an earlier agreement.
The impact
The hearings come as the airplane manufacturer brings on a new leader, announcing Wednesday it has tabbed aerospace veteran Kelly Ortberg as its president and CEO. The 64-year-old’s decision to be based in Seattle has also fueled speculation the company may move its headquarters back to the Pacific Northwest, putting top executives back in close proximity to key production lines and potentially resetting the often fractious relationship between the two.
Aug. 7 – Democrats to officially nominate Harris and running mate
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be chosen as the Democratic presidential nominee by the party’s Wednesday deadline.
What’s happened so far
President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last week and immediately endorsed Harris to be the presidential nominee, with other party leaders following suit soon after. While delegates in the Democratic Party will hold virtual vote beginning Thursday, she is expected to announce her running mate on Monday, ahead of a rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
The impact
The location of Harris’s rally, the first stop on a multi-day tour including Arizona and Michigan, likely suggest that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shaprio is being considered closely and will be expected to help win a historically battleground state in November. Other candidates include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshar, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigeig.
Aug. 7 – Thai court to make decision on Move Forward dissolution
On Thursday, the constitutional court of Thailand will decide whether to dissolve the progressive center-left Move Forward political party.
What’s happened so far
In late March, a petition was made by the country’s electoral commission to dissolve the political party due to their now-dropped proposal to change the strict laws protecting the Thai monarchy from criticism, known as Section 122 or the “lèse-majesté” law. During the 2023 elections, the party surprisingly won the highest number of seats in the country’s House of Representatives, and its predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was also dissolved in early 2020 for the same reason.
The impact
Hundreds of people have been arrested for criticizing the royal family, some sentenced to dozens of years of prison, and it’s likely the constitutional court will disband the party. Nevertheless, the party’s deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul, has already stated the party will reform under a new name if she is re-appointed as leader following its disbandment.
What Else Matters
Issues at Olympics
The first few days of the 2024 Olympics in Paris have been marred by attacks on infrastructure. On Friday, arson attacks on France’s high-speed train network led to the disruption of up to 800,000 passengers shortly before the opening ceremonies. Then on Monday, vandals cut fiber optic cables in other parts of the country, affecting telephones and cell phones in areas outside of Paris. At this point, there’s no confirmation that the acts of sabotage are connected.
Watch for: French officials say the railway attack has the hallmarks of the “ultra-left” and have identified some suspects. They also are questioning if the saboteurs operated on their own or were “manipulated by other people.” That could be in reference to the Russian government, after a joint investigation by Germany’s Der Spiegel and France’s Le Monde found that a lawyer-turned-chef planned to commit “destabilizing” acts at the Olympics, including laying coffins in front of the Eiffel Tower that said “French soldiers of Ukraine.”
Israel’s wars
In the early hours of July 31, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the head of Palestinian group Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed during his visit to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iranian President Pezeshkian. Sources suggest the building Haniyeh was residing in was targeted by an Israeli airborne guided missile fired from outside of the country. The event in Tehran came just hours after another Israeli assassination, where top Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr was killed in a missile strike in southern Beirut. While Israel claimed responsibility for that airstrike, saying the Hezbollah commander was behind the deadly attack that hit a soccer field in the Druze community of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights on July 27, it has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in Haniyeh’s killing.
Watch for: Israel has conducted multiple targeted assassinations of both group’s officials since the war began on Oct. 7, but killing Hamas’ top political leader on Iranian soil was a move many analysts say are outside the rule of engagement of the game. As we enter the 10th month of war, this event places the region on a critical crossroad, with Iran having vowed a much more severe retaliation. The idea of a coordinated attack on Israel from the multiple groups that were hit this week is not off the table, and as Gaza ceasefire talks take a pause, fears of a wider war in the region grow.
Venezuela disputed election and protests
Venezuelan incumbent President Nicolás Maduro proclaimed victory in the country’s general elections on Sunday amid claims of fraud by the opposition and transparency concerns among the international community (member’s link). The government-controlled electoral body ratified the results, claiming Maduro won 51 percent of the votes against the 44 percent for opposition rival Edmundo Gonzalez. Maduro has secured another six-year term after more than a decade in power and after succeeding late socialist revolutionary Hugo Chávez, who rose to power in 1998. Delegations of international observers were denied entry into the country to verify the electoral process ahead of the vote, despite agreements in place to guarantee a fair process. At least 13 people died in violent protests and clashes with security forces across the country so far, and over a thousand others have been arrested.
Watch for: Representatives from multiple Latin American countries, the United States and Europe will not recognize the election’s results due to the lack of independent verification amid international calls for a review of Sunday’s records. International diplomats from Argentina, Chile and Peru have been recalled after questioning the results and after Venezuelan opposition leaders claimed harassment by the regime’s security forces. Reciprocal measures have been announced by some countries. Any further criticism of the electoral outcome is likely to be met with censorship and use of force. In the coming weeks calls for tougher sanctions on the Venezuelan government are expected. Other mid- and long-term impacts could include travel and trade bans.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 2-9
Aug. 4
- Sydney’s mega metro rail line opens under harbour
Aug. 5
- Net neutrality rules reinstatement
Aug. 6
- U.S. and Australia foreign and defense ministers to meet
- NTSB holds hearings on Boeing 737 MAX door incident
Aug. 7
- Bangladesh Supreme Court to publish full verdict on government job quota system
- Thai court to make decision on Move Forward dissolution
- Israeli court to hold second hearing on closing of Sde Teiman facility
Aug. 10-16
Aug. 13
- U.S. vice presidential debate
Aug. 14
- Thailand’s Constitutional Court to hand down verdict over case seeking dismissal of Prime Minister Srettha
Aug. 17-23
Aug. 17
- Nusantara will officially be inaugurated as the capital of Indonesia, replacing Jakarta
Aug. 19
- Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago
Aug. 24-30
Aug. 24
- Ukraine’s Independence Day.
Aug. 26
- Indonesian military hosting Super Garuda Shield 2024
Aug. 28
- 2024 Summer Paralympics begin
Top photo: Vice President Kamala Harris signed the paperwork declaring her candidacy for president of the United States on July 26. Democrats next week will officially name her as the party’s nominee. (Photo: Kamala Harris / Facebook)
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